The Colorado/Missouri 1989 cirrus mini IFO

A series of experiments with aircraft were planned for Nov. and Dec. 1989 to study cirrus ice crystal nucleation mechanisms and to test new aircraft instrumentation. The measurements were conducted using the NCAR Sabreliner and King Air. Sampling was conducted near Boulder, Colorado, in lenticular (mountain wave) clouds, and over Missouri in cirrus generating cells. Field samples of aerosol and ice crystal replicas and melt water from these cirrus clouds were collected and studied. Aircraft instrumentation and sampling techniques are discussed

The Journey to Jesus: John 4:19-26

John 4:19-26 is a part of Jesus’ conversation with the Samaritan woman at the well. This portion of the conversation includes Jesus’ first revelation of himself as the Messiah and the only way to the Father in what Eric John Wyckoff calls an “astonishing self-revelation unparalleled in its explicitness.” Jesus’ later claims develop these ideas further (John 8:24, 28, 58; 13:19; 18:5) but this scene serves to not only reveal Jesus as the Messiah-Christ but also to demonstrate how Jesus transcends all the expectations which are associated with the title

Budgetary Consolidation in EMU.

There is a general consensus that monetary stability in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) requires sustainable public finances of the member states. But how can a sufficient degree of budgetary discipline be maintained in Stage three of EMU?To answer this question, this study provides an empirical analysis of the budgetary consolidations in the EU member states by carrying out an analysis of: the importance of the quality of the budgetary adjustment for the success of the consolidations; the anatomy of fiscal adjustment processes in the EMU member states during the 1990s; the quality of the budgetary institutions of the member states and the changes in these institutions that have occurred during the 1990s; the macroeconomic aspects of fiscal consolidations. The results of the analysis support the proposition that, in order to maintain a high degree of sustainability in Stage three of EMU, attention might shift away from the numerical criteria regarding overall deficits and debts, and focus more on the quality of fiscal adjustments and of the institutions governing public finances in the member states.national budgets, emu, economic and monetary union, public finances

Statistical uncertainty of eddy flux–based estimates of gross ecosystem carbon exchange at Howland Forest, Maine

We present an uncertainty analysis of gross ecosystem carbon exchange (GEE) estimates derived from 7 years of continuous eddy covariance measurements of forest-atmosphere CO2fluxes at Howland Forest, Maine, USA. These data, which have high temporal resolution, can be used to validate process modeling analyses, remote sensing assessments, and field surveys. However, separation of tower-based net ecosystem exchange (NEE) into its components (respiration losses and photosynthetic uptake) requires at least one application of a model, which is usually a regression model fitted to nighttime data and extrapolated for all daytime intervals. In addition, the existence of a significant amount of missing data in eddy flux time series requires a model for daytime NEE as well. Statistical approaches for analytically specifying prediction intervals associated with a regression require, among other things, constant variance of the data, normally distributed residuals, and linearizable regression models. Because the NEE data do not conform to these criteria, we used a Monte Carlo approach (bootstrapping) to quantify the statistical uncertainty of GEE estimates and present this uncertainty in the form of 90% prediction limits. We explore two examples of regression models for modeling respiration and daytime NEE: (1) a simple, physiologically based model from the literature and (2) a nonlinear regression model based on an artificial neural network. We find that uncertainty at the half-hourly timescale is generally on the order of the observations themselves (i.e., ∼100%) but is much less at annual timescales (∼10%). On the other hand, this small absolute uncertainty is commensurate with the interannual variability in estimated GEE. The largest uncertainty is associated with choice of model type, which raises basic questions about the relative roles of models and data

PROPEL: implementation of an evidence based pelvic floor muscle training intervention for women with pelvic organ prolapse: a realist evaluation and outcomes study protocol

Abstract Background Pelvic Organ Prolapse (POP) is estimated to affect 41%–50% of women aged over 40. Findings from the multi-centre randomised controlled “Pelvic Organ Prolapse PhysiotherapY” (POPPY) trial showed that individualised pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) was effective in reducing symptoms of prolapse, improved quality of life and showed clear potential to be cost-effective. However, provision of PFMT for prolapse continues to vary across the UK, with limited numbers of women’s health physiotherapists specialising in its delivery. Implementation of this robust evidence from the POPPY trial will require attention to different models of delivery (e.g. staff skill mix) to fit with differing care environments. Methods A Realist Evaluation (RE) of implementation and outcomes of PFMT delivery in contrasting NHS settings will be conducted using multiple case study sites. Involving substantial local stakeholder engagement will permit a detailed exploration of how local sites make decisions on how to deliver PFMT and how these lead to service change. The RE will track how implementation is working; identify what influences outcomes; and, guided by the RE-AIM framework, will collect robust outcomes data. This will require mixed methods data collection and analysis. Qualitative data will be collected at four time-points across each site to understand local contexts and decisions regarding options for intervention delivery and to monitor implementation, uptake, adherence and outcomes. Patient outcome data will be collected at baseline, six months and one year follow-up for 120 women. Primary outcome will be the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Symptom Score (POP-SS). An economic evaluation will assess the costs and benefits associated with different delivery models taking account of further health care resource use by the women. Cost data will be combined with the primary outcome in a cost effectiveness analysis, and the EQ-5D-5L data in a cost utility analysis for each of the different models of delivery. Discussion Study of the implementation of varying models of service delivery of PFMT across contrasting sites combined with outcomes data and a cost effectiveness analysis will provide insight into the implementation and value of different models of PFMT service delivery and the cost benefits to the NHS in the longer term

Assessment of the relative performance of the EQ-5D-3L, ICIQ UI SF and POP-SS using data from the OPAL trial

Conducting economic evaluations alongside randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is an efficient way to collect cost-effectiveness data. Generic preference-based measures, such as EQ-5D, are often used alongside clinical data measures in RCTs. However, in the case of female urinary incontinence (UI), evidence of the relative performance of EQ-5D with condition-specific measures such as the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire Urinary Incontinence Short Form (ICIQ-UI SF), measuring severity of UI, and Pelvic Organ Prolapse Symptom Score (POP-SS), measuring severity of prolapse symptoms, is limited. This study employed secondary analysis of outcome measures data collected during the Optimal Pelvic floor muscle training for Adherence Long-term (OPAL) RCT, which compared biofeedback-mediated pelvic floor muscle training to basic pelvic floor muscle training for women with UI. The relative performance of EQ-5D-3L and ICIQ-UI SF, and EQ-5D-3L and POP-SS was assessed for concurrent validity and known-groups validity. Data for 577 women (mean age 48) were available for EQ-5D-3L/ICIQ-UI SF, and 555 women (mean age 47) for EQ-5D-3L/POP-SS. Overall, EQ-5D-3L exhibited very weak association with the ICIQ-UI SF total score, or any subscale. EQ-5D-3L and POP-SS were found to be weakly correlated. EQ-5D-3L was able to distinguish between groups with known differences in severity of UI and also between types of UI. These findings provide useful information to guide researchers in selecting appropriate outcome measures for use in future clinical trials

Einstein equations in the null quasi-spherical gauge III: numerical algorithms

We describe numerical techniques used in the construction of our 4th order evolution for the full Einstein equations, and assess the accuracy of representative solutions. The code is based on a null gauge with a quasi-spherical radial coordinate, and simulates the interaction of a single black hole with gravitational radiation. Techniques used include spherical harmonic representations, convolution spline interpolation and filtering, and an RK4 "method of lines" evolution. For sample initial data of "intermediate" size (gravitational field with 19% of the black hole mass), the code is accurate to 1 part in 10^5, until null time z=55 when the coordinate condition breaks down.Comment: Latex, 38 pages, 29 figures (360Kb compressed

The role of the giants in Norse mythology

The following thesis is a survey of the roles that the giants play in Norse mythology. It involves examination, criticism and interpretation of the mythological poems of the Elder Edda and mythological information preserved in Snorri's Edda. All passages in Old Icelandic have been translated as literally as possible in footnotes. Relevant archaeological evidence is examined and evaluated. The first chapter deals with the cosmological giant Ymir, from whom the land, sea and sky were formed. Many giant-names seem to be associated with Ymir's characteristics, and the implications of these potential associations are discussed at length. Chapter 2 concerns Odinn's involvement with the giants. In his pursuit of wisdom he encounters giants, giantesses and those who are arguably associated with giant-kind. They play the role of both obstacle and source for knowledge and wisdom. The third chapter concerns Thorr's relationship with the giants who pose a threat to the gods and man. Thorr's role is that of the heroic defender of Asgardr and Midgardr. In these myths the giants seem to serve as devices to demonstrate the personality and various characteristics of Thorr. Chapter 4 deals with Gerdr and Skadi, two giantesses who marry into the circle of the Aesir. Having become involved with the Aesir in this way, they too become goddesses or the equivalent thereof. Previous studies have tended to focus more on the roles of the individual gods and goddesses, but this thesis aims to shed some light on their enemies

Comparison of HMM experts with MLP experts in the Full Combination Multi-Band Approach to Robust ASR

In this paper we apply the Full Combination (FC) multi-band approach, which has originally been introduced in the framework of posterior-based HMM/ANN (Hidden Markov Model/Artificial Neural Network) hybrid systems, to systems in which the ANN (or Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)) is itself replaced by a Multi Gaussian HMM (MGM). Both systems represent the most widely used statistical models for robust ASR (automatic speech recognition). It is shown how the FC formula for the likelihood-based MGMs can easily be derived from the posterior-based approach by simply applying Bayes' Rule. The experiments show that the Full Combination multi-band system with MGM experts performs better, in all noise conditions tested, than the simple sum and product rules which are normally used. As compared to the baseline full-band system, the FC system shows increased robustness mainly on band-limited noise. The goal of this article is not a performance comparison between Multilayer Perceptrons and Multi Gaussian Models but between the theory of the two approaches, posterior-based vs. likelihood-based FC approach, so results are only given for the MGMs

Recent advances in the multi-stream HMM/ANN hybrid approach to noise robust ASR

In this article we review several successful extensions to the standard Hidden-Markov-Model/Artificial Neural Network (HMM/ANN) hybrid, which have recently made important contributions to the field of noise robust automatic speech recognition. The first extension to the standard hybrid was the ``multi-band hybrid'', in which a separate ANN is trained on each frequency subband, followed by some form of weighted combination of \ANN state posterior probability outputs prior to decoding. However, due to the inaccurate assumption of subband independence, this system usually gives degraded performance, except in the case of narrow-band noise. All of the systems which we review overcome this independence assumption and give improved performance in noise, while also improving or not significantly degrading performance with clean speech. The ``all-combinations multi-band'' hybrid trains a separate ANN for each subband combination. This, however, typically requires a large number of ANNs. The ``all-combinations multi-stream'' hybrid trains an ANN expert for every combination of just a small number of complementary data streams. Multiple ANN posteriors combination using maximum a-posteriori (MAP) weighting gives rise to the further successful strategy of hypothesis level combination by MAP selection. An alternative strategy for exploiting the classification capacity of ANNs is the ``tandem hybrid'' approach in which one or more ANN classifiers are trained with multi-condition data to generate discriminative and noise robust features for input to a standard ASR system. The ``multi-stream tandem hybrid'' trains an ANN for a number of complementary feature streams, permitting multi-stream data fusion. The ``narrow-band tandem hybrid'' trains an ANN for a number of particularly narrow frequency subbands. This gives improved robustness to noises not seen during training. Of the systems presented, all of the multi-stream systems provide generic models for multi-modal data fusion. Test results for each system are presented and discusse