Pengembangan Media Mobile Learning Berbasis Android Materi Pembuatan Desain Berbasis Gambar Vektor Pada Mata Pelajaran Dasar Desain Grafis Untuk Kelas X Jurusan Multimedia Di SMK Muhammadiyah 2 Surabaya

Abstrak  Tujuan penelitian ini ada dua, yaitu 1) untuk mengembangkan sebuah produk berupa media pembelajaran mobile learning, dan 2) untuk mengetahui kelayakan media. Media dikembangkan pada mata pelajaran Dasar Desain Grafis, materi Pembuatan desain berbasis gambar vektor, untuk kelas X di SMK Muhammadiyah 2 Surabaya. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah penelitian pengembangan. Langkah-langkah pengembangan mengikuti model ADDIE (analyze, design, development, implementation, evaluation). Jenis data yang diambil yaitu data kuantitatif yang diperoleh dengan menggunakan instrumen angket. Langkah pertama adalah analisis masalah, setelah masalah ditemukan maka dipilih desain media yang tepat sesuai karakteristik materi, siswa dan media, setelah itu dilakukan pengembangan media. Sedangkan untuk langkah penerapan media tidak dilakukan dengan alasan masih dalam masa pandemi covid-19. Untuk mengetahui kelayakan media maka peneliti melakukan validasi dengan dua ahli yaitu ahli materi dan ahli media. Dari validasi media didapatkan data yang kemudian dianalisis menggunakan rumus persentase dan diperoleh hasil kelayakan materi sebesar 100% dan kelayakan media sebesar 100%. Kedua hasil tersebut selanjutnya dimasukkan dalam kriteria penilaian persentase tergolong “sangat layak”. Dengan demikian maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa media mobile learning yang telah dikembangkan telah layak dan dapat digunakan dalam pembelajaran.  Kata kunci : pengembangan, mobile learning, ADDIE, pembuatan desain berbasis gambar vektor   Abstract  There are two objectives of this study, 1) to develop a product in the form of mobile learning media, and 2) to determine the feasibility of the media. Media was developed in Basic Graphic Design subjects, vector-based design materials for class X at SMK Muhammadiyah 2 Surabaya. The method used in this research is development research. The development steps follow the ADDIE (Analyze, Design, Development, Implementation, Evaluation) model. The type of data taken is quantitative data obtained using a questionnaire instrument. The first step is problem analysis, after the problem is found, the right media design is chosen according to the characteristics of the material, students and media, after that media development is carried out. Meanwhile, the media application step was not carried out on the grounds that it was still in the covid-19 pandemic period. To determine the feasibility of the media, the researcher validated two experts, namely a material expert and a media expert. From the validation of the media, data was obtained which were then analyzed using a percentage formula and the results of the feasibility of the material were 100% and the media feasibility was 100%. The two results are then included in the percentage assessment criteria classified as “very feasible”. Thus, it can be concluded that the mobile learning media that has been developed are feasible and can be used in learning. Keywords: development, mobile learning, ADDIE, vector image-based desig

An Analysis of CTMC Stochastic Models with Quarantine on the Spread of Tuberculosis Diseases

The SIQRS epidemic model developed in this study is intended to analyze the spread characteristics of the infectious disease tuberculosis. It is a modification of the SIQR model developed by Cao et al., using a stochastic model called the Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) approach. Further analysis of the SIQRS model was done to determine the transitional probability, the outbreak probability, the expected time until disease extinction and to simulate the effect of quarantine treatment on the expected time until disease extinction. Based on the simulation it can be concluded that a decrease of the healing rate together with an increase of the transmission rate changes the basic reproduction number (R0), the expected number of infected individuals (m), the time until disease extinction, and the outbreak probability. A disease outbreak will occur if both R0>1 and m>1 hold. Also, based on the simulation it was concluded that the decrease of the healing rate and the increase of the transmission rate cause increases of R0 and m. An increase of the quarantine rate reduces the expected time to disease extinction, R0 and m. As a consequence, the disease will gradually disappear from the system

Determination of Stock Investment Risk Using the Multivariate Time Series Approach

Stock investment is putting money in stocks carried out in the long term with the hope of getting profits in the future. Investors make investments to get returns. Return is the result obtained from investment activities within a certain period. The higher the profits, the greater the risks faced by investors. To overcome the chance, it is possible to estimate the return in the future and calculate the risk that investors will likely obtain. The return includes time series data so that estimates can be made to determine its future value. One model that can be used to estimate stock returns is the transfer function. The transfer function combines ARIMA and regression analysis that can be applied to time series related to other variables. This study found that the daily stock return of PT. Cisadane Sawit Raya Tbk (CSRA) has a cross-correlation with Jakarta Composite Indeks (JKSE) during the daily stock return of PT. Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk (SIMP) has a cross-correlation with JKSE and the exchange rate. The transfer function estimation results show that the RMSE value for CSRA is 0.24%. This value is greater than the RMSE value for SIMP, which is 0.01%. Meanwhile, from the results of risk testing on stock assets, it is found that the greater the level of trust used, the greater the risk of loss

ANALISIS MODEL EPIDEMIK SVEIR DENGAN CONTINUOUS TIME MARKOV CHAIN (CTMC) PADA PENYAKIT RUBELLA

Penyakit rubella yang dikenal dengan sebutan campak Jerman adalah penyakit menular yang disebabkan oleh virus rubella. Penelitian ini mempelajari model dinamika penyebaran penyakit rubella menggunakan model SVEIR yang merupakan modifikasi dari model yang dikembangkan oleh Beraud dan Saito, dengan pendekatan stokastik CTMC. Simulasi dilakukan untuk mengamati pengaruh perubahan: nilai awal, laju infeksi ( ), tingkat efektivitas vaksin ( ), dan laju vaksinasi ( ). Berdasarkan hasil simulasi diperoleh bahwa, perubahan nilai awal mempengaruhi peluang terjadinya wabah. Semakin tinggi laju sembuh dapat menurunkan peluang wabah. Sedangkan semakin tinggi tingkat efektivitas vaksin dan laju vaksinasi menyebabkan nilai  semakin rendah serta nilai peluang wabah yang cukup kecil; artinya peluang bebas penyakit semakin besar dan menghilangnya penyakit rubella dari siste

Pola Faktor Keragaman pada Respons Dikrit

In social research, respondents are usually given several questions or indicators for assessment. Responses between respondents may differ even if the same questions or indicators are given. This is one of the causes of the diversity of responses. The diversity of responses is one of the factors that cause response bias in conducting social research. The diversity of responses can come from differences in the thought processes of each respondent. There are three main aspects in the thought process, namely cognition, affection, and conation. This paper aims to analyze the source of the diversity of responses in the aspects of cognition, affection, and conation. The first thing to do in this research is to design a questionnaire by developing indicators into three aspects (cognition, affection, and conation). The study involved 100 respondents using OVO with a purposive sampling method. Respondents assess indicators of aspects of cognition, affection, and conation. The assessment options given are discrete assessments 1-5 with a description of the assessment adjusted to the indicators. Then, the respondent's assessment data were analyzed by calculating the standard deviation, analysis of variance, further test (Tukey HSD) and the distribution of the assessment of each indicator. The main result obtained is that there are three consecutive indicators with the largest standard deviation values in each aspect. These indicators are the source of the diversity of responses in aspects of cognition, affection, and conation. The results of the analysis also show that the conation aspect is the most diverse aspect with the largest standard deviation value. This research is useful as a reference for making social research questionnaires in measuring aspects related to cognition, affection, and conation

Sebaran Stasioner Pada Sistem Bonus-malus Swiss Serta Modifikasinya (Stationary Distribution of Swiss Bonus-malus System and Its Modification)

Bonus-Malus System is a system in actuary that introduce the premium class (state) partition, where the state is influenced by the number of annual claims reported by the policy holder. We could base the determination of the state on the stationary distribution that represent the number of policy holders in any state. Swiss Bonus-Malus System has 22 state. The number of state that involved in this system result in the difficulty of stationary distribution determination. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to study a method to obtain stationary distribution of Swiss Bonus-Malus System by recursive formula, with this recursive formula, the stationary distribution of Swiss Bonus-Malus System can be determined easier. Modification of this system with infinite state result in the changes of recursive formula to obtain the stationary. This changes including the determining of base value of the recursive formula

M/M/1 Non-preemptive Priority Queuing System with Multiple Vacations and Vacation Interruptions

Non-preemptive priority queue system is a type of priority queue where customers with higher priorities cannot interrupt low priority one while being served. High priority consumers will still be at the head of the queue. This article discusses the non-preemptive priority queue system with multiple working vacations, where the vacation can be interrupted. Customers are classified into two classes, namely class I (non-preemptive priority customers) and class II, with exponentially distributed service rates. Customers will still receive services at a slower rate than during normal busy periods when they enter the system while it is on vacation. Suppose other customers are waiting in the queue after completing service on vacation. In that case, the vacation will be interrupted, and the service rate will switch to the busy period service rate. The model's performance measurements are obtained using the complementary variable method and analyzing the state change equation following the birth and death processes to find probability generating function for both classes. The results of the numerical solution show that the expected value number of customers and waiting time of customers in the queue for both class customers will be reduced when the vacation times rate (θ) and the vacation service rate (μ_0 ) increase

Parametric Survival Model on IPB University’s Graduation Data

Graduation is one of the assessment criteria in the college accreditation process. Students who graduate on time will assist in the assessment of college accreditation. This study aims to determine the distribution that best fits student graduation data and determine the best model to analyze the factors that determine student graduation from IPB University. This study presents some parametric models in survival analysis, specifically, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model and the proportional hazard (PH) model. The objective of this research is to compare the performance of PH model and the AFT models in analyzing the significant factors affecting the student graduation at the IPB University. Based on the study's results, the distribution according to student graduation data is the Burr XII distribution, and the best model using the AIC criteria is the PH Burr XII model. The factors that influence the graduation of IPB University students are gender, faculty, GPA, regional origin, and school status.

MODEL STOKASTIK EPIDEMIK SIRS INSIDEN TAK LINEAR DENGAN VAKSINASI

Matematika mempunyai peran penting dalam ilmu kesehatan salah satunya untuk membuat model penyebaran suatu penyakit. Salah satu penyakit yang dapat dibuat modelnya adalah penyakit difteri. Tujuan penelitian ini yakni memodifikasi model matematis difteri yang sudah ada menggunakan model stokastik continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). Dalam penelitian ini pembahasan difokuskan pada peluang transisi, peluang wabah, dan bilangan reproduksi dasar. Bilangan reproduksi dasar  mewakili jumlah rata-rata individu rentan menjadi terinfeksi karena masuknya satu inividu terinfeksi ke dalam subpopulasi rentan. Jika , maka hasil analisis memperlihatkan bahwa sistem populasi akan mengalami wabah penyakit, sedangkan jika , maka wabah penyakit tidak akan terjadi pada sistem populasi. Pada penelitian ini diperoleh model stokastik penyebaran penyakit difteri dengan dua fungsi yang berbeda yakni fungsi linear  dan fungsi tak linear . Namun, keduanya memberikan hasil yang serupa yakni tidak akan terjadi wabah di dalam sistem ketika . Jika tingkat vaksinasi meningkat, maka bilangan reproduksi dasar menurun. Artinya semakin tinggi tingkat vaksinasi maka penyakit akan hilang di dalam sistem. Fungsi tak linear berpengaruh pada besarnya dan peluang wabah bergantung pada nilai konstanta α yang diberikan. Semakin besar nilai α, maka dan peluang wabah semakin kecil

KAJIAN PENDUGA FUNGSI RAGAM PROSES POISSON PERIODIK MAJEMUK DENGAN TREN FUNGSI PANGKAT

Pada artikel ini dibahas tentang pendugaan fungsi ragam pada proses Poisson periodik majemuk yang mempertimbangkan kehadiran tren fungsi pangkat.  Penulisan artikel ini bertujuan untuk mengonstruksi penduga, memeriksa kekonsistenan penduga, menganalisis bias, ragam dan mean squared error (MSE) asimtotik penduga, serta menentukan ukuran interval pengamatan proses terpendek sehingga nilai dugaan yang diperoleh sudah mendekati parameter yang diduga menggunakan simulasi komputer. Hasil kajian yang telah diperoleh berupa rumusan penduga fungsi ragam, syarat-syarat agar penduga yang dirumuskan kokonsisten, rumusan bias asimtotik, ragam asimtotik dan MSE asimtotik penduga. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi diperoleh bahwa penduga sudah mendekati nilai parameter yang diduga jika panjang interval waktu pengamatan adalah 5500