Choosing summary statistics by least angle regression for approximate Bayesian computation

YesBayesian statistical inference relies on the posterior distribution. Depending on the model, the posterior can be more or less difficult to derive. In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in complex settings where the likelihood is analytically intractable. In such situations, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides an attractive way of carrying out Bayesian inference. For obtaining reliable posterior estimates however, it is important to keep the approximation errors small in ABC. The choice of an appropriate set of summary statistics plays a crucial role in this effort. Here, we report the development of a new algorithm that is based on least angle regression for choosing summary statistics. In two population genetic examples, the performance of the new algorithm is better than a previously proposed approach that uses partial least squares.Higher Education Commission (HEC), College Deanship of Scientific Research, King Saud University, Riyadh Saudi Arabia - research group project RGP-VPP-280

Non-negative Wigner functions in prime dimensions

According to a classical result due to Hudson, the Wigner function of a pure, continuous variable quantum state is non-negative if and only if the state is Gaussian. We have proven an analogous statement for finite-dimensional quantum systems. In this context, the role of Gaussian states is taken on by stabilizer states. The general results have been published in [D. Gross, J. Math. Phys. 47, 122107 (2006)]. For the case of systems of odd prime dimension, a greatly simplified proof can be employed which still exhibits the main ideas. The present paper gives a self-contained account of these methods.Comment: 5 pages. Special case of a result proved in quant-ph/0602001. The proof is greatly simplified, making the general case more accessible. To appear in Appl. Phys. B as part of the proceedings of the 2006 DPG Spring Meeting (Quantum Optics and Photonics section

Distance Estimation in Cosmology

In this paper we outline the framework of mathematical statistics with which one may study the properties of galaxy distance estimators. We describe, within this framework, how one may formulate the problem of distance estimation as a Bayesian inference problem, and highlight the crucial question of how one incorporates prior information in this approach. We contrast the Bayesian approach with the classical `frequentist' treatment of parameter estimation, and illustrate -- with the simple example of estimating the distance to a single galaxy in a redshift survey -- how one can obtain a significantly different result in the two cases. We also examine some examples of a Bayesian treatment of distance estimation -- involving the definition of Malmquist corrections -- which have been applied in recent literature, and discuss the validity of the assumptions on which such treatments have been based.Comment: Plain Latex version 3.1, 18 pages + 2 figures, `Vistas in Astronomy' in pres

TGFβ inhibition stimulates collagen maturation to enhance bone repair and fracture resistance in a murine myeloma model

Multiple myeloma is a plasma cell malignancy that causes debilitating bone disease and fractures, in which TGFβ plays a central role. Current treatments do not repair existing damage and fractures remain a common occurrence. We developed a novel low tumour phase murine model mimicking the plateau phase in patients, as we hypothesized this would be an ideal time to treat with a bone anabolic. Using in vivo microCT we show substantial and rapid bone lesion repair (and prevention) driven by SD‐208 (TGFβ receptor I kinase inhibitor) and chemotherapy (bortezomib and lenalidomide) in mice with human U266‐GFP‐luc myeloma. We discovered that lesion repair occurred via an intramembranous fracture repair‐like mechanism and that SD‐208 enhanced collagen matrix maturation to significantly improve fracture resistance. Lesion healing was associated with VEGFA expression in woven bone, reduced osteocyte‐derived PTHrP, increased osteoblasts, decreased osteoclasts and lower serum TRACP‐5b. SD‐208 also completely prevented bone lesion development mice with aggressive JJN3 tumors, and was more effective than an anti‐TGFβ neutralizing antibody (1D11). We also discovered that SD‐208 promoted osteoblastic differentiation (and overcame the TGFβ‐induced block in osteoblastogenesis) in myeloma patient bone marrow stromal cells in vitro, comparable to normal donors. The improved bone quality and fracture‐resistance with SD‐208 provides incentive for clinical translation to improve myeloma patient quality of life by reducing fracture risk and fatality

The Flare-energy Distributions Generated by Kink-unstable Ensembles of Zero-net-current Coronal Loops

It has been proposed that the million degree temperature of the corona is due to the combined effect of barely-detectable energy releases, so called nanoflares, that occur throughout the solar atmosphere. Alas, the nanoflare density and brightness implied by this hypothesis means that conclusive verification is beyond present observational abilities. Nevertheless, we investigate the plausibility of the nanoflare hypothesis by constructing a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model that can derive the energy of a nanoflare from the nature of an ideal kink instability. The set of energy-releasing instabilities is captured by an instability threshold for linear kink modes. Each point on the threshold is associated with a unique energy release and so we can predict a distribution of nanoflare energies. When the linear instability threshold is crossed, the instability enters a nonlinear phase as it is driven by current sheet reconnection. As the ensuing flare erupts and declines, the field transitions to a lower energy state, which is modelled by relaxation theory, i.e., helicity is conserved and the ratio of current to field becomes invariant within the loop. We apply the model so that all the loops within an ensemble achieve instability followed by energy-releasing relaxation. The result is a nanoflare energy distribution. Furthermore, we produce different distributions by varying the loop aspect ratio, the nature of the path to instability taken by each loop and also the level of radial expansion that may accompany loop relaxation. The heating rate obtained is just sufficient for coronal heating. In addition, we also show that kink instability cannot be associated with a critical magnetic twist value for every point along the instability threshold

A Peculiar Family of Jupiter Trojans: the Eurybates

The Eurybates family is a compact core inside the Menelaus clan, located in the L4 swarm of Jupiter Trojans. Fornasier et al. (2007) found that this family exhibits a peculiar abundance of spectrally flat objects, similar to Chiron-like Centaurs and C-type main belt asteroids. On the basis of the visible spectra available in literature, Eurybates family's members seemed to be good candidates for having on their surfaces water/water ice or aqueous altered materials. To improve our knowledge of the surface composition of this peculiar family, we carried out an observational campaign at the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo (TNG), obtaining near-infrared spectra of 7 members. Our data show a surprisingly absence of any spectral feature referable to the presence of water, ices or aqueous altered materials on the surface of the observed objects. Models of the surface composition are attempted, evidencing that amorphous carbon seems to dominate the surface composition of the observed bodies and some amount of silicates (olivine) could be present.Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures, paper accepted for publication in Icaru

Forward-in-Time, Spatially Explicit Modeling Software to Simulate Genetic Lineages Under Selection

SELECTOR is a software package for studying the evolution of multiallelic genes under balancing or positive selection while simulating complex evolutionary scenarios that integrate demographic growth and migration in a spatially explicit population framework. Parameters can be varied both in space and time to account for geographical, environmental, and cultural heterogeneity. SELECTOR can be used within an approximate Bayesian computation estimation framework. We first describe the principles of SELECTOR and validate the algorithms by comparing its outputs for simple models with theoretical expectations. Then, we show how it can be used to investigate genetic differentiation of loci under balancing selection in interconnected demes with spatially heterogeneous gene flow. We identify situations in which balancing selection reduces genetic differentiation between population groups compared with neutrality and explain conflicting outcomes observed for human leukocyte antigen loci. These results and three previously published applications demonstrate that SELECTOR is efficient and robust for building insight into human settlement history and evolution

Extreme Ultra-Violet Spectroscopy of the Lower Solar Atmosphere During Solar Flares

The extreme ultraviolet portion of the solar spectrum contains a wealth of diagnostic tools for probing the lower solar atmosphere in response to an injection of energy, particularly during the impulsive phase of solar flares. These include temperature and density sensitive line ratios, Doppler shifted emission lines and nonthermal broadening, abundance measurements, differential emission measure profiles, and continuum temperatures and energetics, among others. In this paper I shall review some of the advances made in recent years using these techniques, focusing primarily on studies that have utilized data from Hinode/EIS and SDO/EVE, while also providing some historical background and a summary of future spectroscopic instrumentation.Comment: 34 pages, 8 figures. Submitted to Solar Physics as part of the Topical Issue on Solar and Stellar Flare

Development of DYNAMIX Policy Mixes - Deliverable 4.2, revised version, of the DYNAMIX project

This report documents the development of the initial dynamic policy mixes that were developed for assessment in the DYNAMIX project. The policy mixes were designed within three different policy areas: overarching policy, land-use and food, and metals and other materials. The policy areas were selected to address absolute decoupling in general and, specifically, the DYNAMIX targets related to the use of virgin metals, the use of arable land and freshwater, the input of the nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus, and emissions of greenhouse gases. Each policy mix was developed within a separate author team, using a common methodological framework that utilize previous findings in the project. Specific drivers and barriers for resource use and resource efficiency are discussed in each policy area. Specific policy objectives and targets are also discussed before the actual policy mix is presented. Each policy mix includes a set of key instruments, which can be embedded in a wider set of supporting and complementary policy instruments. All key instruments are described in the report through responses to a set of predefined questions. The overarching mix includes a broad variety of key instruments. The land-use policy mix emphasizes five instruments to improve food production through, for example, revisions of already existing policy documents. It also includes three instruments to influence the food consumption and food waste. The policy mix on metals and other materials primarily aims at reducing the use of virgin metals through increased recycling, increased material efficiency and environmentally justified material substitution. To avoid simply shifting of burdens, it includes several instruments of an overarching character