When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises

This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang. Based on a study of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis recessions are more costly than normal recessions in terms of lost output; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. In additional to unconditional analysis, we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macroeconomic controls and their lags. Then we study how past credit accumulation impacts the behavior of not only output but also other key macroeconomic variables such as investment, lending, interest rates, and inflation. The facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle.

Fragments of the earliest land plants

The earliest fossil evidence for land plants comes from microscopic dispersed spores. These microfossils are abundant and widely distributed in sediments, and the earliest generally accepted reports are from rocks of mid-Ordovician age (Llanvirn, 475 million years ago). Although distribution, morphology and ultrastructure of the spores indicate that they are derived from terrestrial plants, possibly early relatives of the bryophytes, this interpretation remains controversial as there is little in the way of direct evidence for the parent plants. An additional complicating factor is that there is a significant hiatus between the appearance of the first dispersed spores and fossils of relatively complete land plants (megafossils): spores predate the earliest megafossils (Late Silurian, 425 million year ago) by some 50 million years. Here we report the description of spore-containing plant fragments from Ordovician rocks of Oman. These fossils provide direct evidence for the nature of the spore-producing plants. They confirm that the earliest spores developed in large numbers within sporangia, providing strong evidence that they are the fossilized remains of bona fide land plants. Furthermore, analysis of spore wall ultrastructure supports liverwort affinities

Analytic Kramer kernels, Lagrange-type interpolation series and de Branges spaces

The classical Kramer sampling theorem provides a method for obtaining orthogonal sampling formulas. In particular, when the involved kernel is analytic in the sampling parameter it can be stated in an abstract setting of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces of entire functions which includes as a particular case the classical Shannon sampling theory. This abstract setting allows us to obtain a sort of converse result and to characterize when the sampling formula associated with an analytic Kramer kernel can be expressed as a Lagrange-type interpolation series. On the other hand, the de Branges spaces of entire functions satisfy orthogonal sampling formulas which can be written as Lagrange-type interpolation series. In this work some links between all these ideas are established

A coalgebraic view of bar recursion and bar induction

We reformulate the bar recursion and induction principles in terms of recursive and wellfounded coalgebras. Bar induction was originally proposed by Brouwer as an axiom to recover certain classically valid theorems in a constructive setting. It is a form of induction on non- wellfounded trees satisfying certain properties. Bar recursion, introduced later by Spector, is the corresponding function defnition principle. We give a generalization of these principles, by introducing the notion of barred coalgebra: a process with a branching behaviour given by a functor, such that all possible computations terminate. Coalgebraic bar recursion is the statement that every barred coalgebra is recursive; a recursive coalgebra is one that allows defnition of functions by a coalgebra-to-algebra morphism. It is a framework to characterize valid forms of recursion for terminating functional programs. One application of the principle is the tabulation of continuous functions: Ghani, Hancock and Pattinson defned a type of wellfounded trees that represent continuous functions on streams. Bar recursion allows us to prove that every stably continuous function can be tabulated to such a tree where by stability we mean that the modulus of continuity is also continuous. Coalgebraic bar induction states that every barred coalgebra is well-founded; a wellfounded coalgebra is one that admits proof by induction

A cross-sectional study of Victorian mobile intensive care ambulance paramedics knowledge of the Valsalva manoeuvre

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Valsalva Manoeuvre (VM) is a primary measure for terminating haemodynamically stable supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) in the emergency care setting. The clinical use and termination success of the VM in the prehospital setting has not been investigated to date. The objective of this study was to determine Melbourne Mobile Intensive Care Ambulance (MICA) Paramedic knowledge of the VM, and to compare this understanding with an evidence-based model of VM performance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study in the form of a face-to-face interview was used to determine Melbourne MICA Paramedic understanding of VM instruction between January and February, 2008. The results were then compared with an evidence-based model of VM performance to ascertain compliance with the three criteria of position, pressure and duration. Ethics approval was granted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 28 participants (60.9%) who elected a form of supine posturing, some 23 participants (50%) selected the syringe method of pressure generation, with 16 participants (34.8%) selecting the "as long as you can" option for duration. On comparison, one out of 46 MICA Paramedics correctly identified the three evidence-based criteria.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The formal education of Melbourne's MICA Paramedics would benefit from the introduction of an evidence based model of VM performance, which would impact positively on patient care and may improve reversion success in the prehospital setting. The results of this study also demonstrate that an opportunity exists to promote the evidence-based VM criteria across the primary emergency care field.</p

A cross-sectional survey of mental health clinicians’ knowledge, attitudes, and practice relating to tobacco dependence among young people with mental disorders

BACKGROUND: Mental health services in England are smoke-free by law and expected to provide comprehensive support to patients who smoke. Although clinicians’ knowledge in this area is reported to be limited, research exploring the issue in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) is lacking. This study aimed to investigate the knowledge, attitudes, and practice of clinicians working within specialist and highly specialist Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) relating to tobacco dependence, its treatment and its relation to mental disorder. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of clinicians working across all CAMHS teams of a large UK National Health Service mental health Trust. RESULTS: Sixty clinicians (50% response rate) completed the survey. Less than half (48.3%) believed that addressing smoking was part of their responsibility, and half (50%) asserted confidence in supporting patients in a cessation attempt. Misconceptions relating to smoking were present across all staff groups: e.g. only 40% of respondents were aware of potential interactions between smoking and antipsychotic medications, although psychiatrists were more knowledgeable than non-medical clinicians (91.6% vs 27.1%; OR 3.4, p < .001). Self-reported attendance at smoking-related training was significantly associated with more proactive clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need to improve clinicians’ knowledge, capacity and confidence in effectively identifying, motivating, supporting and treating young smokers in the context of treatment for mental disorders. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-014-0618-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Using Self-Affirmation to Increase Intellectual Humility in Debate

Intellectual humility, which entails openness to other views and a willingness to listen and engage with them, is crucial for facilitating civil dialogue and progress in debate between opposing sides. In the present research, we tested whether intellectual humility can be reliably detected in discourse and experimentally increased by a prior self-affirmation task. Three-hundred and three participants took part in 116 audio and video-recorded group discussions. Blind to condition, linguists coded participants’ discourse to create an intellectual humility score. As expected, the self-affirmation task increased the coded intellectual humility, as well as participants’ self-rated prosocial affect (e.g., empathy). Unexpectedly, the effect on prosocial affect did not mediate the link between experimental condition and intellectual humility in debate. Self-reported intellectual humility and other personality variables were uncorrelated with expert-coded intellectual humility. Implications of these findings for understanding the social psychological mechanisms underpinning intellectual humility are considered

Topologically Protected Quantum State Transfer in a Chiral Spin Liquid

Topology plays a central role in ensuring the robustness of a wide variety of physical phenomena. Notable examples range from the robust current carrying edge states associated with the quantum Hall and the quantum spin Hall effects to proposals involving topologically protected quantum memory and quantum logic operations. Here, we propose and analyze a topologically protected channel for the transfer of quantum states between remote quantum nodes. In our approach, state transfer is mediated by the edge mode of a chiral spin liquid. We demonstrate that the proposed method is intrinsically robust to realistic imperfections associated with disorder and decoherence. Possible experimental implementations and applications to the detection and characterization of spin liquid phases are discussed.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

Microfluidic systems for the analysis of the viscoelastic fluid flow phenomena in porous media

In this study, two microfluidic devices are proposed as simplified 1-D microfluidic analogues of a porous medium. The objectives are twofold: firstly to assess the usefulness of the microchannels to mimic the porous medium in a controlled and simplified manner, and secondly to obtain a better insight about the flow characteristics of viscoelastic fluids flowing through a packed bed. For these purposes, flow visualizations and pressure drop measurements are conducted with Newtonian and viscoelastic fluids. The 1-D microfluidic analogues of porous medium consisted of microchannels with a sequence of contractions/ expansions disposed in symmetric and asymmetric arrangements. The real porous medium is in reality, a complex combination of the two arrangements of particles simulated with the microchannels, which can be considered as limiting ideal configurations. The results show that both configurations are able to mimic well the pressure drop variation with flow rate for Newtonian fluids. However, due to the intrinsic differences in the deformation rate profiles associated with each microgeometry, the symmetric configuration is more suitable for studying the flow of viscoelastic fluids at low De values, while the asymmetric configuration provides better results at high De values. In this way, both microgeometries seem to be complementary and could be interesting tools to obtain a better insight about the flow of viscoelastic fluids through a porous medium. Such model systems could be very interesting to use in polymer-flood processes for enhanced oil recovery, for instance, as a tool for selecting the most suitable viscoelastic fluid to be used in a specific formation. The selection of the fluid properties of a detergent for cleaning oil contaminated soil, sand, and in general, any porous material, is another possible application

A qualitative study of Telehealth patient information leaflets (TILs) : are we giving patients enough information?

BACKGROUND: The provision of patient information leaflets regarding telehealth has been perceived by potential consumers as a strategy to promote awareness and adoption of telehealth services. However, such leaflets need to be designed carefully if adoption and awareness among potential users is to be promoted. Therefore, the aims of this study were: first, to see how telehealth was portrayed in some of the existing telehealth leaflets (THLs). Second, to explore patients' perceptions of the existing THLs and their engagement with the concept and how THLs can be optimised. METHODS: A two-step approach was employed to address the aims of this study. The first phase involved the use of discourse analysis to compare 12 electronically and publically available THLs, with the existing THL guidance "Involve Yorkshire and Humber". The second phase involved conducting 14 semi-structured interviews with potential telehealth users/patients to gauge their perception and engagement with the concept, using the two leaflets that were mostly matching with the guidance used. Six interviews were audio-recorded and eight had detailed jotted notes. The interviews were transcribed and thematically analysed to identify key themes. RESULTS: The discourse analysis showed certain gaps and variations within the screened leaflets when addressing the following aspects: cost of the telehealth service, confidentiality, patients' choices in addition to equipment use and technical support. Analysis of the interviews revealed patients' need for having clear and sufficient information about the telehealth service within the THLs; in addition to, patients' preference for the use of simpler terminologies for telehealth description and the provision of clear simple texts with pictorial presentations. The interviews also revealed certain limitations against adoption of telehealth by the participants, such as: lack of privacy and confidentiality of information, fear of technology breakdown and equipment failure, loss of face-to-face contact with healthcare professionals and being too dependent on the telehealth service. CONCLUSION: The current study showed a great variation among the screened THLs and highlighted certain gaps within the content and presentation of these leaflets. However, the study also highlighted certain key issues to be considered when designing THLs in the future to enhance telehealth uptake and use by patients