PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN PADA KONDISI STOKASTIK DAN HARGA BERTINGKAT MENGGUNAKAN SIMULASI

investment value of the company in the form of supplies could reach 50 % of the value of all assets . Basically resource inventory is idle resources, which means that if the excess inventory will lead to wasted investment , but if there is no inventory would be difficult to anticipate fluctuations in demand can lead to stockout . So, we need a good inventory management to manage the balance between inventory investment and customer service . This research took a case study in Olla Bakery where there is demand and uncertain lead time , which affects the supply of raw material flour . To control the supply of the raw material , in this study using Monte Carlo simulation due to the properties of probabilistic variables , fluctuating demand , lead time is uncertain , and also considering the quantity discounts in the purchase of raw materials as a consideration in the simulation . The results obtained from this study that the Monte Carlo simulation method can reduce inventory costs by 6.83% , so it can be taken into consideration for the company in the purchase of raw materials. Keywords : Probabilistic, Quantity Discount, Monte Carl

MODEL EKSPANSI KAPASITAS YANG MEMPERTIMBANGKAN PERGESERAN STRUKTUR PASAR DAN INOVASI TEKNOLOGI UNTUK HORISON PERENCANAAN TERBATAS

The changes of market structure to tighter competition will changes the company behaviour to, i.e., the quantity of market demand fulfillment, the limits of capacity shortage, and the cooperation with competitor. This research addresses the problem of capacity expansion, i.e, to formulate a capacity expansion model for a local access cable broadband telecommunication network. The model covers the technoogical innovation and the competition level. In the model, the technological innovation was represented by the rate of technological innovation parameter, while the competition level was represented by consideration three basic strategy of capacity expansion, i.e., (1) capacity leads demand, (2) capacity lags demand, and (3) capacity in appoximate equilibrium with demand. The model was optimized by Kuhn-Tucker method. Numerical experience and the behaviour of the model are shown in this paper. Key words : Capacity expansion, local access cable telecommunication network, technological innovation, the changes of market structure

Analysis of expressed sequence tags derived from inflorescence shoot of ,i>Tectona grandis (teak)

Teak Inflorescence Shoot Stage 4 (TIS4) shoots bearing the floral meristems were used to construct a cDNA librariy with insert size range of 1500 - 5000 bp. The titer of the library was 7.5 x 105 pfu/ml(primary) and 4.5 x 109 pfu/ml (amplified). EST generation and analysis were performed using the cDNA library where a total of 1384 plaques were randomly picked and their inserts PCR-amplified using T3and T7 universal primers. Only 1125 plaques generated single amplified fragments, each which were purified and sequenced using the SK universal primer. The generated raw 5’ ESTs were filtered and clustered. A total of 674 nonredundants (69 consensus sequences and 605 singletons) were generated and their identities searched through BLASTX. Of the 674 nonredundants, 107 of them (15.9%) showed no hits or no identity. All the 567 nonredundants identified through BLASTX were categorized into theirfunctional categories and were further analysed using InterProScan to detect their protein signatures and to assign their GO numbers. From all the sequences analysed, only 186 (32.8%) sequences were given the GO numbers and grouped into the three GO main categories namely biological process, cellular component and molecular function. Several important ESTs were highlighted based on their functional categories. There were five sequences found to be related to flowering and light induction

Assessment of riverbank filtration performance for climatic change and a growing population

Data availability statement The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/Supplementary Material; further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding authors.Copyright © 2023 Abd-Elaty, Kuriqi, Ganayem, Ahmed, Saleh and Garrote. Riverbank filtration (RBF) consists of green drinking water production in many regions and is used as a pre-treatment phase. This study investigates the performance of the RBF in the Nile delta, Egypt, for climate change and population growth scenarios of 2030, 2040, and 2050. This study presents a new method for predicting the sharing of riverbanks considering three cases: i) the river stage controlling the water levels in the river, ii) increasing RBF pumping, and iii) changing the groundwater levels. This last scenario is achieved by changing the general head in the MODFLOW model. The results showed that RBF sharing (RBFS) is a proportion of the river leakage inflow, in which the decrease of the river stage due to the influence of climate change reduced the river leakage inflow and RBFS. In addition, increasing RBF pumping, decreasing RBF pumping, and lowering the groundwater levels due to the increase in the future drinking water pumping for the population growth increased the river leakage inflow and RBFS. Finally, combining the three cases decreased RBFS in the coming years of 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively, due to more groundwater sharing than the river inflow. The results show that the water budget is a good tool to investigate RBFS compared with MT3D results. This technique can reduce the cost of water quality collection and analysis; moreover, it will help with the estimation of RBF and save time compared with solute transport modeling.AK is grateful for the Foundation for Science and Technology’s support through funding UIDB/04625/2020 from the research unit CERIS

Determining the Contribution of Epidermal Cell Shape to Petal Wettability Using Isogenic Antirrhinum Lines

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Malignancy risk analysis in patients with inadequate fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) of the thyroid

Background Thyroid fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) is the standard diagnostic modality for thyroid nodules. However, it has limitations among which is the incidence of non-diagnostic results (Thy1). Management of cases with repeatedly non-diagnostic FNAC ranges from simple observation to surgical intervention. We aim to evaluate the incidence of malignancy in non-diagnostic FNAC, and the success rate of repeated FNAC. We also aim to evaluate risk factors for malignancy in patients with non-diagnostic FNAC. Materials and Methods Retrospective analyses of consecutive cases with thyroid non diagnostic FNAC results were included. Results Out of total 1657 thyroid FNAC done during the study period, there were 264 (15.9%) non-diagnostic FNAC on the first attempt. On repeating those, the rate of a non-diagnostic result on second FNAC was 61.8% and on third FNAC was 47.2%. The overall malignancy rate in Thy1 FNAC was 4.5% (42% papillary, 42% follicular and 8% anaplastic), and the yield of malignancy decreased considerably with successive non-diagnostic FNAC. Ultrasound guidance by an experienced head neck radiologist produced the lowest non-diagnostic rate (38%) on repetition compared to US guidance by a generalist radiologist (65%) and by non US guidance (90%). Conclusions There is a low risk of malignancy in patients with a non-diagnostic FNAC result, commensurate to the risk of any nodule. The yield of malignancy decreased considerably with successive non-diagnostic FNAC

Acute fatal presentation of ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency in a previously healthy male

Ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency is an X-linked urea cycle defect. While hemizygous males typically present with hyperammonemic coma in infancy, reports of rare late-onset presentations exist, with poor outcomes in males up to 58 years old. Relatives with mutations identical to affected patients often remain asymptomatic, and it is likely that environmental and genetic factors influence disease penetrance and expression. Here, we present our investigation of a patient with late-onset presentation, and we emphasize the potential role of environmental and genetic factors on disease expression. The patient was a previously healthy 62-year-old man who developed mental slowing, refractory seizures, and coma over an 8-day period. Interestingly, the patient had recently used home gardening fertilizers and pesticides. Evaluations for drug and alcohol use, infections, and liver disease were negative. Despite aggressive therapy, blood NH3 concentration peaked at 2,050 μM and the patient died from cerebral edema and cerebellar herniation. Analysis of the OTC gene showed a Pro-225-Thr (P225T) change in exon 7, a mutation that has been previously implicated in OTC deficiency. This case illustrates that OTC deficiency can cause acute, severe hyperammonemia in a previously healthy adult and that the P225T mutation can be associated with late-onset OTC deficiency. We speculate that exposure to organic chemicals might have contributed to the onset of symptoms in this patient. This case also emphasizes that persistent hyperammonemia may cause irreversible neurologic damage and that after the diagnosis of hyperammonemia is established in an acutely ill patient, certain diagnostic tests should be performed to differentiate between urea cycle disorders and other causes of hyperammonemic encephalopathy

The puzzle of self-reported weight gain in a month of fasting (Ramadan) among a cohort of Saudi families in Jeddah, Western Saudi Arabia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During Ramadan fast, approximately one billion Muslims abstain from food and fluid between the hours of sunrise to sunset, and usually eat a large meal after sunset and another meal before sunrise. Many studies reported good health-related outcomes of fasting including weight loss. The objective of this study is to identify the local pattern of expenditure on food consumption, dietary habits during Ramadan and correlate that to self-reported weight gain after Ramadan in a group of families in Jeddah, Western Saudi Arabia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A Cross-section study using a pre-designed questionnaire to identify the local pattern of expenditure on food consumption, dietary habits during Ramadan and correlate that to self-reported weight gain after Ramadan in a representative cohort of Saudis living in Jeddah. It was piloted on 173 nutrition students and administered by them to their families.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 173 Saudi families were interviewed. One out of 5 indicated that their expenditure increases during Ramadan. Approximately two thirds of the respondents (59.5%) reported weight gain after Ramadan. When asked about their perspective explanations for that: 40% attributed that to types of foods being rich in fat and carbohydrates particularly date in (Sunset meal) 97.7% and rice in (Dawn meal) 80.9%. One third (31.2%) indicated that it was due to relative lack of physical exercise in Ramadan and 14.5% referred that to increase in food consumption. Two thirds (65.2%) of those with increased expenditure reported weight gain.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Surprisingly weight gain and not weight loss was reported after Ramadan by Saudis which indicates timely needed life-style and dietary modification programs for a population which reports one of the highest prevalence rates of diabetes.</p

The prevalence of psychological co-morbidity in people with vitiligo: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Vitiligo is a chronic disorder causing skin depigmentation with global prevalence varying from 0.2 to 1.8%. UK guidelines recommend assessment of psychological state during clinical evaluation of vitiligo. However, the prevalence of psychological co-morbidity in people with vitiligo has not been described. Objectives: We aimed to establish the prevalence of psychological symptoms or disorders in people with vitiligo and describe the outcome measures used. Methods: We performed a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and PsychInfo to identify observational studies assessing the prevalence of psychological symptoms or disorders (December 2016). DerSimonian and Lard random-effects models were utilized to estimate the overall pooled prevalence. Results: We identified 29 studies with 2530 people with vitiligo. Most studies included a measure of either depression (n=25) or anxiety (n=13).The commonest tools were the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and the Centre for Epidemiology Studies Depression Scale. Ten studies provided information on thirteen other psychological outcomes. Pooled prevalence using depression-specific and anxiety-specific questionnaires was 0.29 (95%CI 0.21, 0.38) and 0.33 (95%CI 0.18, 0.49) respectively. Prevalence was lower for clinically diagnosed depression (0.21; 95%CI 0.15, 0.28) and anxiety (0.15; 95%CI 0.06, 0.24). When non-specific tools were used the prevalence remained similar for depression (0.27; 95%CI 0.08, 0.46) but increased for anxiety (0.46; 95% CI 0.39, 0.52). High heterogeneity was observed. Conclusions: A range of psychological outcomes are common in people with vitiligo. The prevalence of anxiety was influenced by type of screening tool, suggesting validation of psychological outcome screening tools in the field of dermatology

Modeling inflammation and oxidative stress in gastrointestinal disease development using novel organotypic culture systems

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), Barrett's esophagus (BE), graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), and inflammatory bowel diseases such as ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease are common human gastrointestinal diseases that share inflammation as a key driver for their development. A general outcome resulting from these chronic inflammatory conditions is increased oxidative stress. Oxidative stress is caused by the generation of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species that are part of the normal inflammatory response, but are also capable of damaging cellular DNA, protein, and organelles. Damage to DNA can include DNA strand breaks, point mutations due to DNA adducts, as well as alterations in methylation patterns leading to activation of oncogenes or inactivation of tumor suppressors. There are a number of significant long-term consequences associated with chronic oxidative stress, most notably cancer. Infiltrating immune cells and stromal components of tissue including fibroblasts contribute to dynamic changes occurring in tissue related to disease development. Immune cells can potentiate oxidative stress, and fibroblasts have the capacity to contribute to advanced growth and proliferation of the epithelium and any resultant cancers. Disease models for GERD, BE, GVHD, and ulcerative colitis based on three-dimensional human cell and tissue culture systems that recapitulate in vivo growth and differentiation in inflammatory-associated microphysiological environments would enhance our understanding of disease progression and improve our ability to test for disease-prevention strategies. The development of physiologically relevant, human cell-based culture systems is therefore a major focus of our research. These novel models will be of enormous value, allowing us to test hypotheses and advance our understanding of these disorders, and will have a translational impact allowing us to more rapidly develop therapeutic and chemopreventive agents. In summary, this work to develop advanced human cell-based models of inflammatory conditions will greatly improve our ability to study, prevent, and treat GERD, BE, GVHD, and inflammatory bowel disease. The work will also foster the development of novel therapeutic and preventive strategies that will improve patient care for these important clinical conditions