Toward 3D retrieval of exoplanet atmospheres: assessing thermochemical equilibrium estimation methods

Characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres via Bayesian retrievals requires assuming some chemistry model, such as thermochemical equilibrium or parameterized abundances. The higher-resolution data offered by upcoming telescopes enable more complex chemistry models within retrieval frameworks. Yet many chemistry codes that model more complex processes like photochemistry and vertical transport are computationally expensive, and directly incorporating them into a 1D retrieval model can result in prohibitively long execution times. Additionally, phase-curve observations with upcoming telescopes motivate 2D and 3D retrieval models, further exacerbating the lengthy runtime for retrieval frameworks with complex chemistry models. Here we compare thermochemical equilibrium approximation methods based on their speed and accuracy with respect to a Gibbs energy-minimization code. We find that, while all methods offer orders-of-magnitude reductions in computational cost, neural network surrogate models perform more accurately than the other approaches considered, achieving a median absolute dex error of <0.03 for the phase space considered. While our results are based on a 1D chemistry model, our study suggests that higher-dimensional chemistry models could be incorporated into retrieval models via this surrogate modeling approach

Towards 3D Retrieval of Exoplanet Atmospheres: Assessing Thermochemical Equilibrium Estimation Methods

Characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres via Bayesian retrievals requires assuming some chemistry model, such as thermochemical equilibrium or parameterized abundances. The higher-resolution data offered by upcoming telescopes enables more complex chemistry models within retrieval frameworks. Yet, many chemistry codes that model more complex processes like photochemistry and vertical transport are computationally expensive, and directly incorporating them into a 1D retrieval model can result in prohibitively long execution times. Additionally, phase-curve observations with upcoming telescopes motivate 2D and 3D retrieval models, further exacerbating the lengthy runtime for retrieval frameworks with complex chemistry models. Here, we compare thermochemical equilibrium approximation methods based on their speed and accuracy with respect to a Gibbs energy-minimization code. We find that, while all methods offer orders of magnitude reductions in computational cost, neural network surrogate models perform more accurately than the other approaches considered, achieving a median absolute dex error <0.03 for the phase space considered. While our results are based on a 1D chemistry model, our study suggests that higher dimensional chemistry models could be incorporated into retrieval models via this surrogate modeling approach.Comment: 22 pages, 14 figures, submitted to PSJ 2022/11/22, revised 2023/3/7, accepted 2023/3/23. Updated to add Zenodo link to Reproducible Research Compendiu

Proxima Centauri b is not a transiting exoplanet

We report Spitzer Space Telescope observations during predicted transits of the exoplanet Proxima Centauri b. As the nearest terrestrial habitable-zone planet we will ever discover, any potential transit of Proxima b would place strong constraints on its radius, bulk density, and atmosphere. Subsequent transmission spectroscopy and secondary-eclipse measurements could then probe the atmospheric chemistry, physical processes, and orbit, including a search for biosignatures. However, our photometric results rule out planetary transits at the 200~ppm level at 4.5$~{\mu}m$, yielding a 3$\sigma$ upper radius limit of 0.4~R_\rm{\oplus} (Earth radii). Previous claims of possible transits from optical ground- and space-based photometry were likely correlated noise in the data from Proxima Centauri's frequent flaring. Follow-up observations should focus on planetary radio emission, phase curves, and direct imaging. Our study indicates dramatically reduced stellar activity at near-to-mid infrared wavelengths, compared to the optical. Proxima b is an ideal target for space-based infrared telescopes, if their instruments can be configured to handle Proxima's brightness.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

Accurate Machine Learning Atmospheric Retrieval via a Neural Network Surrogate Model for Radiative Transfer

Atmospheric retrieval determines the properties of an atmosphere based on its measured spectrum. The low signal-to-noise ratio of exoplanet observations require a Bayesian approach to determine posterior probability distributions of each model parameter, given observed spectra. This inference is computationally expensive, as it requires many executions of a costly radiative transfer (RT) simulation for each set of sampled model parameters. Machine learning (ML) has recently been shown to provide a significant reduction in runtime for retrievals, mainly by training inverse ML models that predict parameter distributions, given observed spectra, albeit with reduced posterior accuracy. Here we present a novel approach to retrieval by training a forward ML surrogate model that predicts spectra given model parameters, providing a fast approximate RT simulation that can be used in a conventional Bayesian retrieval framework without significant loss of accuracy. We demonstrate our method on the emission spectrum of HD 189733 b and find good agreement with a traditional retrieval from the Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) code (Bhattacharyya coefficients of 0.9843--0.9972, with a mean of 0.9925, between 1D marginalized posteriors). This accuracy comes while still offering significant speed enhancements over traditional RT, albeit not as much as ML methods with lower posterior accuracy. Our method is ~9x faster per parallel chain than BART when run on an AMD EPYC 7402P central processing unit (CPU). Neural-network computation using an NVIDIA Titan Xp graphics processing unit is 90--180x faster per chain than BART on that CPU.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PSJ 3/4/2020, revised 1/22/2021. Text restructured and updated for clarity, model updated and expanded to work for range of hot Jupiters, results/plots updated, two new appendices to further justify model selection and methodolog

Cancer chemotherapy in early life significantly alters the maturation of pain processing

Advances in paediatric cancer treatment have led to a ten year survival rate greater than 75%. Platinum-based chemotherapies (e.g.cisplatin) induce peripheral sensory neuropathy in adult and paedriatric cancer patients. The period from birth through to adulthood represents a period of maturation within nociceptive systems. Here we investigated how cisplatin impacts upon postnatal maturation of nociceptive systems. Neonatal Wistar rats (Postnatal day (P) 7) were injected (i.p.) daily with either vehicle (PBS) or cisplatin (1mg/kg) for five consecutive days. Neither group developed mechanical or thermal hypersensitivity immediately during or after treatment. At P22 the cisplatin group developed mechanical (P<0.05) and thermal (P<0.0001) hypersensitivity versus vehicle group. Total DRG or dorsal horn neuronal number did not differ at P45, however there was an increase in intraepidermal nerve fibre density in cisplatin treated animals at this age. The percentage of IB4+ve, CGRP+ve and NF200+ve DRG neurons was not different between groups at P45. There was an increase in TrkA+ve DRG neurons in the cisplatin group at P45, in addition to increased TrkA, NF200 and vGLUT2 immunoreactivity in the lumbar dorsal horn versus controls. These data highlight the impact paediatric cancer chemotherapy has upon the maturation of pain pathways and later life pain experience

The loss of STAT3 in mature osteoclasts has detrimental effects on bone structure

Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription 3 (STAT3) has recently been shown to be involved in bone development and has been implicated in bone diseases, such as Job’s Syndrome. Bone growth and changes have been known for many years to differ between sexes with male bones tending to have higher bone mass than female bones and older females tending to lose bone mass at faster rates than older males. Previous studies using conditional knock mice with Stat3 specifically deleted from the osteoblasts showed both sexes exhibited decreased bone mineral density (BMD) and strength. Using the Cre-Lox system with Cathepsin K promotor driving Cre to target the deletion of the Stat3 gene in mature osteoclasts (STAT3-cKO mice), we observed that 8-week old STAT3-cKO female femurs exhibited significantly lower BMD and bone mineral content (BMC) compared to littermate control (CN) females. There were no differences in BMD and BMC observed between male knock-out and male CN femurs. However, micro-computed tomography (μCT) analysis showed that both male and female STAT3-cKO mice had significant decreases in bone volume/tissue volume (BV/TV). Bone histomorphometry analysis of the distal femur, further revealed a decrease in bone formation rate and mineralizing surface/bone surface (MS/BS) with a significant decrease in osteoclast surface in female, but not male, STAT3-cKO mice. Profiling gene expression in an osteoclastic cell line with a knockdown of STAT3 showed an upregulation of a number of genes that are directly regulated by estrogen receptors. These data collectively suggest that regulation of STAT3 differs in male and female osteoclasts and that inactivation of STAT3 in osteoclasts affects bone turnover more in females than males, demonstrating the complicated nature of STAT3 signaling pathways in osteoclastogenesis. Drugs targeting the STAT3 pathway may be used for treatment of diseases such as Job’s Syndrome and osteoporosis

Impact of Obesity on Pediatric Acute Recurrent and Chronic Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of obesity on pediatric acute recurrent pancreatitis or chronic pancreatitis (CP). METHODS: We determined body mass index (BMI) status at enrollment in INSPPIRE (INternational Study group of Pediatric Pancreatitis: In search for a cuRE) cohort using CDC criteria for pediatric-specific BMI percentiles. We used the Cochran-Armitage test to assess trends and the Jonckheere-Terpstra test to determine associations. RESULTS: Of 446 subjects (acute recurrent pancreatitis, n = 241; CP, n = 205), 22 were underweight, 258 normal weight, 75 overweight, and 91 were obese. The BMI groups were similar in sex, race, and age at presentation. Hypertriglyceridemia was more common in overweight or obese. Obese children were less likely to have CP and more likely to have acute inflammation on imaging. Compared with children with normal weight, obese or overweight children were older at first acute pancreatitis episode and diagnosed with CP at an older age. Obese or overweight children were less likely to undergo medical or endoscopic treatment, develop exocrine pancreatic insufficiency, and require total pancreatectomy with islet autotransplantation. Diabetes was similar among all groups. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity or overweight seems to delay the initial acute pancreatitis episode and diagnosis of CP compared with normal weight or underweight. The impact of obesity on pediatric CP progression and severity deserves further study

Predicting nursing home admission in the U.S: a meta-analysis

Background: While existing reviews have identified significant predictors of nursing home admission, this meta-analysis attempted to provide more integrated empirical findings to identify predictors. The present study aimed to generate pooled empirical associations for sociodemographic, functional, cognitive, service use, and informal support indicators that predict nursing home admission among older adults in the U.S. Methods: Studies published in English were retrieved by searching the MEDLINE, PSYCINFO, CINAHL, and Digital Dissertations databases using the keywords: "nursing home placement," "nursing home entry," "nursing home admission," and "predictors/institutionalization." Any reports including these key words were retrieved. Bibliographies of retrieved articles were also searched. Selected studies included sampling frames that were nationally- or regionally-representative of the U.S. older population. Results: Of 736 relevant reports identified, 77 reports across 12 data sources were included that used longitudinal designs and community-based samples. Information on number of nursing home admissions, length of follow-up, sample characteristics, analysis type, statistical adjustment, and potential risk factors were extracted with standardized protocols. Random effects models were used to separately pool the logistic and Cox regression model results from the individual data sources. Among the strongest predictors of nursing home admission were 3 or more activities of daily living dependencies (summary odds ratio [OR] = 3.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.56–4.09), cognitive impairment (OR = 2.54; CI, 1.44–4.51), and prior nursing home use (OR = 3.47; CI, 1.89–6.37). Conclusion: The pooled associations provided detailed empirical information as to which variables emerged as the strongest predictors of NH admission (e.g., 3 or more ADL dependencies, cognitive impairment, prior NH use). These results could be utilized as weights in the construction and validation of prognostic tools to estimate risk for NH entry over a multi-year period

Chronic pancreatitis: Pediatric and adult cohorts show similarities in disease progress despite different risk factors

Objectives: To investigate the natural history of chronic pancreatitis (CP), patients in the North American Pancreatitis Study2 (NAPS2, adults) and INternational Study group of Pediatric Pancreatitis: In search for a cuRE (INSPPIRE, pediatric) were compared. Methods: Demographics, risk factors, disease duration, management and outcomes of 224 children and 1,063 adults were compared using appropriate statistical tests for categorical and continuous variables. Results: Alcohol was a risk in 53% of adults and 1% of children (p<0.0001); tobacco in 50% of adults and 7% of children (p<0.0001). Obstructive factors were more common in children (29% vs 19% in adults, p=0.001). Genetic risk factors were found more often in children. Exocrine pancreatic insufficiency was similar (children 26% vs adult 33%, p=0.107). Diabetes was more common in adults than children (36% vs 4% respectively, p<0.0001). Median emergency room visits, hospitalizations, and missed days of work/school were similar across the cohorts. As a secondary analysis, NAPS2 subjects with childhood onset (NAPS2-CO) were compared to INSPPIRE subjects. These two cohorts were more similar than the total INSPPIRE and NAPS2 cohorts, including for genetic risk factors. The only risk factor significantly more common in the NAPS2-CO cohort compared with the INSPPIRE cohort was alcohol (9% NAPS2-CO vs 1% INSPPIRE cohorts, p=0.011). Conclusions: Despite disparity in age of onset, children and adults with CP exhibit similarity in demographics, CP treatment, and pain. Differences between groups in radiographic findings and diabetes prevalence may be related to differences in risk factors associated with disease and length of time of CP

Association Analysis of the FTO Gene with Obesity in Children of Caucasian and African Ancestry Reveals a Common Tagging SNP

Recently an association was demonstrated between the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, within the FTO locus and obesity as a consequence of a genome wide association (GWA) study of type 2 diabetes in adults. We examined the effects of two perfect surrogates for this SNP plus 11 other SNPs at this locus with respect to our childhood obesity cohort, consisting of both Caucasians and African Americans (AA). Utilizing data from our ongoing GWA study in our cohort of 418 Caucasian obese children (BMI≥95th percentile), 2,270 Caucasian controls (BMI<95th percentile), 578 AA obese children and 1,424 AA controls, we investigated the association of the previously reported variation at the FTO locus with the childhood form of this disease in both ethnicities. The minor allele frequencies (MAF) of rs8050136 and rs3751812 (perfect surrogates for rs9939609 i.e. both r2 = 1) in the Caucasian cases were 0.448 and 0.443 respectively while they were 0.391 and 0.386 in Caucasian controls respectively, yielding for both an odds ratio (OR) of 1.27 (95% CI 1.08–1.47; P = 0.0022). Furthermore, the MAFs of rs8050136 and rs3751812 in the AA cases were 0.449 and 0.115 respectively while they were 0.436 and 0.090 in AA controls respectively, yielding an OR of 1.05 (95% CI 0.91–1.21; P = 0.49) and of 1.31 (95% CI 1.050–1.643; P = 0.017) respectively. Investigating all 13 SNPs present on the Illumina HumanHap550 BeadChip in this region of linkage disequilibrium, rs3751812 was the only SNP conferring significant risk in AA. We have therefore replicated and refined the association in an AA cohort and distilled a tag-SNP, rs3751812, which captures the ancestral origin of the actual mutation. As such, variants in the FTO gene confer a similar magnitude of risk of obesity to children as to their adult counterparts and appear to have a global impact