Forward and Inverse Analysis of Chemical Transport Models

Assessing the discrepancy between modeled and observed distributions of aerosols is a persistent problem on many scales. Tools for analyzing the evolution of aerosol size distributions using the adjoint method are presented in idealized box model calculations. The ability to recover information about aerosol growth rates and initial size distributions is assessed given a range of simulated observations of evolving systems. While such tools alone could facilitate analysis of chamber measurements, improving estimates of aerosol sources on regional and global scales requires explicit consideration of many additional chemical and physical processes that govern secondary formation of atmospheric aerosols from emissions of gas-phase precursors. The adjoint of the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem is derived, affording detailed analysis of the relationship between gas-phase aerosol precursor emissions (SOx, NOx, and NH3) and the subsequent distributions of sulfate - ammonium - nitrate aerosol. Assimilation of surface measurements of sulfate and nitrate aerosol is shown to provide valuable constraints on emissions of ammonia. Adjoint sensitivities are used to propose strategies for air quality control, suggesting, for example, that reduction of SOx emissions in the summer and NH3 emissions in the winter would most effectively reduce non-attainment of aerosol air quality standards. The ability of this model to estimate global distributions of carbonaceous aerosol is also addressed. Based on new yield data from environmental chamber studies, mechanisms for incorporating the dependence of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation on NOx concentrations are developed for use in global models. When NOx levels are appropriately accounted for, it is demonstrated that sources such as isoprene and aromatics, previously neglected as sources of aerosol in global models, significantly contribute to predicted SOA burdens downwind of polluted areas (owing to benzene and toluene) and in the free troposphere (owing to isoprene)

Adjoint inversion of Chinese non-methane volatile organic compound emissions using space-based observations of formaldehyde and glyoxal

We used the GEOS-Chem model and its adjoint to quantify Chinese non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions for the year 2007, using the tropospheric column concentrations of formaldehyde and glyoxal observed by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2A (GOME-2A) instrument and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) as quantitative constraints. We conducted a series of inversion experiments using different combinations of satellite observations to explore their impacts on the top-down emission estimates. Our top-down estimates for Chinese annual total NMVOC emissions were 30.7 to 49.5 (average 41.9) Tg yr−1, including 16.4 to 23.6 (average 20.2) Tg yr−1 from anthropogenic sources, 12.2 to 22.8 (average 19.2) Tg yr−1 from biogenic sources, and 2.08 to 3.13 (average 2.48) Tg yr−1 from biomass burning. In comparison, the a priori estimate for Chinese annual total NMVOC emissions was 38.3 Tg yr−1, including 18.8 Tg yr−1 from anthropogenic sources, 17.3 Tg yr−1 from biogenic sources, and 2.27 Tg yr−1 from biomass burning. The simultaneous use of glyoxal and formaldehyde observations helped distinguish the NMVOC species from different sources and was essential in constraining anthropogenic emissions. Our four inversion experiments consistently showed that the Chinese anthropogenic emissions of NMVOC precursors of glyoxal were larger than the a priori estimates. Our top-down estimates for Chinese annual emission of anthropogenic aromatics (benzene, toluene, and xylene) ranged from 5.5 to 7.9 Tg yr−1, 2 % to 46 % larger than the estimate of the a priori emission inventory (5.4 Tg yr−1). Three out of our four inversion experiments indicated that the seasonal variation in Chinese NMVOC emissions was significantly stronger than indicated in the a priori inventory. Model simulations driven by the average of our top-down NMVOC emission estimates (which had a stronger seasonal variation than the a priori) showed that surface afternoon ozone concentrations over eastern China increased by 1–8 ppb in June and decreased by 1–10 ppb in December relative to the simulations using the a priori emissions and were in better agreement with measurements. We concluded that the satellite observations of formaldehyde and glyoxal together provided quantitative constraints on the emissions and source types of NMVOCs over China and improved our understanding on regional chemistry

A multiphase CMAQ version 5.0 adjoint

We present the development of a multiphase adjoint for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, a widely used chemical transport model. The adjoint model provides location- and time-specific gradients that can be used in various applications such as backward sensitivity analysis, source attribution, optimal pollution control, data assimilation, and inverse modeling. The science processes of the CMAQ model include gas-phase chemistry, aerosol dynamics and thermodynamics, cloud chemistry and dynamics, diffusion, and advection. Discrete adjoints are implemented for all the science processes, with an additional continuous adjoint for advection. The development of discrete adjoints is assisted with algorithmic differentiation (AD) tools. Particularly, the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP) is implemented for gas-phase and aqueous chemistry, and two different automatic differentiation tools are used for other processes such as clouds, aerosols, diffusion, and advection. The continuous adjoint of advection is developed manually. For adjoint validation, the brute-force or finite-difference method (FDM) is implemented process by process with box- or column-model simulations. Due to the inherent limitations of the FDM caused by numerical round-off errors, the complex variable method (CVM) is adopted where necessary. The adjoint model often shows better agreement with the CVM than with the FDM. The adjoints of all science processes compare favorably with the FDM and CVM. In an example application of the full multiphase adjoint model, we provide the first estimates of how emissions of particulate matter (PM2.5) affect public health across the US. </div

Long-range transport impacts on surface aerosol concentrations and the contributions to haze events in China: an HTAP2 multi-model study

Haze has been severely affecting the densely populated areas in China recently. While many of the efforts have been devoted to investigating the impact of local anthropogenic emission, limited attention has been paid to the contribution from long-range transport. In this study, we apply simulations from six participating models supplied through the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise to investigate the long-range transport impact of Europe (EUR) and Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU) on the surface air quality in eastern Asia (EAS), with special focus on their contributions during the haze episodes in China. The impact of 20 % anthropogenic emission perturbation from the source region is extrapolated by a factor of 5 to estimate the full impact. We find that the full impacts from EUR and RBU are 0.99 µg m−3 (3.1 %) and 1.32 µg m−3 (4.1 %) during haze episodes, while the annual averaged full impacts are only 0.35 µg m−3 (1.7 %) and 0.53 µg m−3 (2.6 %). By estimating the aerosol response within and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL), we find that long-range transport from EUR within the PBL contributes to 22–38 % of the total column density of aerosol response in EAS. Comparison with the HTAP phase 1 (HTAP1) assessment reveals that from 2000 to 2010, the long-range transport from Europe to eastern Asia has decreased significantly by a factor of 2–10 for surface aerosol mass concentration due to the simultaneous emission reduction in source regions and emission increase in the receptor region. We also find the long-range transport from the Europe and RBU regions increases the number of haze events in China by 0.15 % and 0.11 %, and the North China Plain and southeastern China has 1–3 extra haze days (<3  %). This study is the first investigation into the contribution of long-range transport to haze in China with multi-model experiments

HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors

Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air-pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM2.5 and ozone and the avoided deaths due to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU), and the Middle East (MDE), three global emission sectors, power and industry (PIN), ground transportation (TRN), and residential (RES), and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF HTAP2), and epidemiologically derived concentration response functions. We build on results from previous studies of TF HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 anthropogenic emissions (excluding methane), with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290 000 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 30 000, 600 000) premature O3-related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM2.5-related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20 % emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O3-related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM2.5-related deaths outside of MDE than within. Our findings that most avoided O3-related deaths from emission reductions in NAM and EUR occur outside of those regions contrast with those of previous studies, while estimates of PM2.5-related deaths from NAM, EUR, SAS, and EAS emission reductions agree well. In addition, EUR, MDE, and RBU have more avoided O3-related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extra-regional mortality is estimated as 6000 (−3400, 15 500) deaths per year and 25 100 (8200, 35 800) deaths per year through changes in O3 and PM2.5, respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM2.5 than in O3, even though O3 is transported more on interregional scales, since PM2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. For NAM and EUR, our estimates of avoided mortality from regional and extra-regional emission reductions are comparable to those estimated by regional models for these same experiments. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26–53 % of global emission reduction) of O3-related premature deaths in most regions, in agreement with previous studies, except for EAS (58 %) and RBU (38 %) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38–78 % of global emission reduction) of PM2.5-related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45 %) where RES emission dominates, which differs with previous studies in which RES emissions dominate global health impacts. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances

Estimates of the Global Burden of Ambient PM2.5, Ozone, and NO2 on Asthma Incidence and Emergency Room Visits

Background: Asthma is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide, affecting 358 million people in 2015. Ambient air pollution exacerbates asthma among populations around the world and may also contribute to new-onset asthma. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the number of asthma emergency room visits and new onset asthma cases globally attributable to fine particulate matter (P[M.sub.2.5]), ozone, and nitrogen dioxide (N[O.sub.2]) concentrations. Methods: We used epidemiological health impact functions combined with data describing population, baseline asthma incidence and prevalence, and pollutant concentrations. We constructed a new dataset of national and regional emergency room visit rates among people with asthma using published survey data. Results: We estimated that 9-23 million and 5-10 million annual asthma emergency room visits globally in 2015 could be attributable to ozone and P[M.sub.2.5], respectively, representing 8-20% and 4-9% of the annual number of global visits, respectively. The range reflects the application of central risk estimates from different epidemiological meta-analyses. Anthropogenic emissions were responsible for ~37% and 73% of ozone and P[M.sub.2.5] impacts, respectively. Remaining impacts were attributable to naturally occurring ozone precursor emissions (e.g., from vegetation, lightning) and P[M.sub.2.5] (e.g., dust, sea salt), though several of these sources are also influenced by humans. The largest impacts were estimated in China and India. Conclusions: These findings estimate the magnitude of the global asthma burden that could be avoided by reducing ambient air pollution. We also identified key uncertainties and data limitations to be addressed to enable refined estimation

The impact of future emission policies on tropospheric ozone using a parameterised approach

This study quantifies future changes in tropospheric ozone (O3) using a simple parameterisation of source–receptor relationships based on simulations from a range of models participating in the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF-HTAP) experiments. Surface and tropospheric O3 changes are calculated globally and across 16 regions from perturbations in precursor emissions (NOx, CO, volatile organic compounds – VOCs) and methane (CH4) abundance only, neglecting any impact from climate change. A source attribution is provided for each source region along with an estimate of uncertainty based on the spread of the results from the models. Tests against model simulations using the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 – Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) confirm that the approaches used within the parameterisation perform well for most regions. The O3 response to changes in CH4 abundance is slightly larger in the TF-HTAP Phase 2 than in the TF-HTAP Phase 1 assessment (2010) and provides further evidence that controlling CH4 is important for limiting future O3 concentrations. Different treatments of chemistry and meteorology in models remain one of the largest uncertainties in calculating the O3 response to perturbations in CH4 abundance and precursor emissions, particularly over the Middle East and south Asia regions. Emission changes for the future Evaluating the CLimate and Air Quality ImPacts of Short-livEd Pollutants (ECLIPSE) scenarios and a subset of preliminary Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) indicate that surface O3 concentrations will increase regionally by 1 to 8 ppbv in 2050. Source attribution analysis highlights the growing importance of CH4 in the future under current legislation. A change in the global tropospheric O3 radiative forcing of +0.07 W m−2 from 2010 to 2050 is predicted using the ECLIPSE scenarios and SSPs, based solely on changes in CH4 abundance and tropospheric O3 precursor emissions and neglecting any influence of climate change. Current legislation is shown to be inadequate in limiting the future degradation of surface ozone air quality and enhancement of near-term climate warming. More stringent future emission controls provide a large reduction in both surface O3 concentrations and O3 radiative forcing. The parameterisation provides a simple tool to highlight the different impacts and associated uncertainties of local and hemispheric emission control strategies on both surface air quality and the near-term climate forcing by tropospheric O3

Constraints on aerosol sources using GEOS-Chem adjoint and MODIS radiances, and evaluation with multisensor (OMI, MISR) data

We present a new top-down approach that spatially constrains the amount of aerosol emissions using satellite (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) observed radiances with the adjoint of a chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem). This paper aims to demonstrate the approach through applying it to a case study that yields the following emission estimates over China for April 2008: 1.73 Tg for SO2, 0.72 Tg for NH3, 1.38 Tg for NOx, 0.10 Tg for black carbon, and 0.18 Tg for organic carbon from anthropogenic sources, which reflects, respectively, a reduction of 33.5%, 34.5%, 18.8%, 9.1%, and 15% in comparison to the prior bottom-up inventories of INTEX-B 2006. The mineral dust emission from the online dust entrainment and mobilization module is reduced by 56.4% of 19.02 to 8.30 Tg. Compared to the prior simulation, the posterior simulation shows a much better agreement with the following independent measurements: aerosol optical depth (AOD) measured by AERONET sun-spectrophotometers and retrieved from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), atmospheric NO2 and SO2 columnar amount retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and in situ data of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium and PM10 (particular matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 mm) mass concentrations over both anthropogenic pollution and dust source regions. Assuming the bottom-up (prior) anthropogenic emissions are the best estimates for their base year of 2006, the overwhelming reduction in the posterior (top-down) estimate indicates less emission in April 2008 especially for the SO2 tracer in the central and eastern parts of China, and/or an overestimation in the prior emission. The former is supported by the AOD change detected by MODIS and MISR sensors, while the latter is likely the case for NOx and NH3 emissions because no evidence shows that their atmospheric concentration has declined over China. With the promising results shown in this study, continuous efforts are needed toward a holistic and comprehensive inversion of emission using multisensor remote sensing data (of trace gases and aerosols) for constraining aerosol primary and precursor emissions at various temporal and spatial scales