Klimafolgenabschätzungen in der Wasserwirtschaft und deren Nutzen für die Praxis

KlimafolgenClimate ImpactsDer globale Klimawandel kann regional unterschiedliche Auswirkungen haben. Während sich die wissenschaftliche Forschung vor allem mit der Analyse der Daten beschäftigt, ist die fachliche Praxis darum bemüht, die Ergebnisse zu interpretieren und Handlungsempfehlungen daraus abzuleiten. Im Zuge des Projektes KliBiW (Globaler Klimawandel – Wasserwirtschaftliche Folgenabschätzung für das Binnenland) wurden die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Hochwasser- und Niedrigwasserverhältnisse in Niedersachsen untersucht. Hierzu wurden die Daten von zwei regionalen Klimamodellen (WETTREG2006 und REMO), beide angetrieben durch das Globalmodell ECHAM5/MPI-OM, räumlich interpoliert und die Niederschläge zum Teil zeitlich disaggregiert, um hoch aufgelöste Klimainformationen bereitzuhalten. Anschließend erfolgte die Kopplung mit einem hydrologischen Modellsystem (PANTA RHEI), das bereits in der Hochwasservorhersagezentrale des NLWKN im Einsatz ist. Über Langzeitsimulationen wurden zukünftige Veränderungen in den Abflussverhältnissen räumlich und zeitlich differenziert für das Aller-Leine Gebiet identifiziert. Als Betrachtungszeiträume dienten eine nahe Zukunftsphase (2021 – 2050) und eine ferne Zukunftsphase (2071 – 2100). Die Veränderungen verschiedener hydrologischer Hoch- und Niedrigwasser-Kenngrößen wurden gegenüber einem Kontrollzeitraum (1971 – 2000) aufgezeigt. Die Auswertungen an 8 Pegeln in Einzugsgebieten >1.000 km² auf Tageswertbasis und an 6 Pegeln in Einzugsgebieten <1.000 km² auf Stundenwertbasis zeigten, dass sich die Hochwassersituation zukünftig verschärfen kann. Während kleinere Hochwässer häufiger auftreten können, nehmen die Scheitelabflüsse insbesondere in der fernen Zukunft zu. Aussagen zu größeren Ereignissen sind aufgrund der großen Bandbreite der Ergebnisse jedoch mit erheblichen Unsicherheiten behaftet. Die Niedrigwasserverhältnisse zeigten eine Abnahme der Abflüsse, speziell im Sommer, sowie eine Zunahme der Dauer undnder Volumendefizite bei Trockenperioden. Hierbei erschien die Variabilität und Ausprägung der Trockenheit in kleineren Einzugsgebieten etwas größer. Die Nutzung dieser Erkenntnisse stellt die fachliche Praxis vor die Herausforderung, die Ergebnisse zu interpretieren und zu kommunizieren. Unsicherheiten in den Modellketten müssen berücksichtigt und, wenn möglich, quantifiziert werden. Die abgeleiteten hydrologischen Konsequenzen des Klimawandels können z.B. Anwendung finden in der gesetzlich geforderten Berücksichtigung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Risikogebiete entsprechend der Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Richtlinie (2007/60/EG). Dieser Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über wasserwirtschaftlich relevante Auswertungen von Klimamodelldaten auf unterschiedlichen räumlichen Skalen und zeigt anhand ausgewählter Beispiele auf, wie primär im wissenschaftlichen Kontext erhobene Ergebnisse effektiv für praxisrelevante Fragestellungen genutzt werden können

Paediatric autoimmune encephalopathies:Clinical features, laboratory investigations and outcomes in patients with or without antibodies to known central nervous system autoantigens

Objective: To report the clinical and investigative features of children with a clinical diagnosis of probable autoimmune encephalopathy, both with and without antibodies to central nervous system antigens. Method: Patients with encephalopathy plus one or more of neuropsychiatric symptoms, seizures, movement disorder or cognitive dysfunction, were identified from 111 paediatric serum samples referred from five tertiary paediatric neurology centres to Oxford for antibody testing in 2007-2010. A blinded clinical review panel identified 48 patients with a diagnosis of probable autoimmune encephalitis whose features are described. All samples were tested/retested for antibodies to N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR), VGKC-complex, LGI1, CASPR2 and contactin-2, GlyR, D1R, D2R, AMPAR, GABA(B)R and glutamic acid decarboxylase. Results Seizures (83%), behavioural change (63%), confusion (50%), movement disorder (38%) and hallucinations (25%) were common. 52% required intensive care support for seizure control or profound encephalopathy. An acute infective organism (15%) or abnormal cerebrospinal fluid (32%), EEG (70%) or MRI (37%) abnormalities were found. One 14-year-old girl had an ovarian teratoma. Serum antibodies were detected in 21/48 (44%) patients: NMDAR 13/48 (27%), VGKC-complex 7/48(15%) and GlyR 1/48(2%). Antibody negative patients shared similar clinical features to those who had specific antibodies detected. 18/34 patients (52%) who received immunotherapy made a complete recovery compared to 4/14 (28%) who were not treated; reductions in modified Rankin Scale for children scores were more common following immunotherapies. Antibody status did not appear to in fluence the treatment effect. Conclusions: Our study outlines the common clinical and paraclinical features of children and adolescents with probable autoimmune encephalopathies. These patients, irrespective of positivity for the known antibody targets, appeared to benefit from immunotherapies and further antibody targets may be defined in the future

Negative Priming Under Rapid Serial Visual Presentation

Negative priming (NP) was examined under a new paradigm wherein a target and distractors were temporally separated using rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP). The results from the two experiments revealed that (a) NP was robust under RSVP, such that the responses to a target were slower when the target served as a distractor in a previous trial than when it did not; (b) NP was found regardless of whether the distractors appeared before or after the targets; and (c) NP was stronger when the distractor was more distinctive. These findings are generally similar to those on NP in the spatial search task. The implications for the processes causing NP under RSVP are discussed in the current paper

Changes over time in characteristics, resource use and outcomes among ICU patients with COVID-19-A nationwide, observational study in Denmark

BACKGROUND: Characteristics and care of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with COVID‐19 may have changed during the pandemic, but longitudinal data assessing this are limited. We compared patients with COVID‐19 admitted to Danish ICUs in the first wave with those admitted later. METHODS: Among all Danish ICU patients with COVID‐19, we compared demographics, chronic comorbidities, use of organ support, length of stay and vital status of those admitted 10 March to 19 May 2020 (first wave) versus 20 May 2020 to 30 June 2021. We analysed risk factors for death by adjusted logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among all hospitalised patients with COVID‐19, a lower proportion was admitted to ICU after the first wave (13% vs. 8%). Among all 1374 ICU patients with COVID‐19, 326 were admitted during the first wave. There were no major differences in patient's characteristics or mortality between the two periods, but use of invasive mechanical ventilation (81% vs. 58% of patients), renal replacement therapy (26% vs. 13%) and ECMO (8% vs. 3%) and median length of stay in ICU (13 vs. 10 days) and in hospital (20 vs. 17 days) were all significantly lower after the first wave. Risk factors for death were higher age, larger burden of comorbidities (heart failure, pulmonary disease and kidney disease) and active cancer, but not admission during or after the first wave. CONCLUSIONS: After the first wave of COVID‐19 in Denmark, a lower proportion of hospitalised patients with COVID‐19 were admitted to ICU. Among ICU patients, use of organ support was lower and length of stay was reduced, but mortality rates remained at a relatively high level

Evaluation of presumably disease causing SCN1A variants in a cohort of common epilepsy syndromes

Objective: The SCN1A gene, coding for the voltage-gated Na+ channel alpha subunit NaV1.1, is the clinically most relevant epilepsy gene. With the advent of high-throughput next-generation sequencing, clinical laboratories are generating an ever-increasing catalogue of SCN1A variants. Variants are more likely to be classified as pathogenic if they have already been identified previously in a patient with epilepsy. Here, we critically re-evaluate the pathogenicity of this class of variants in a cohort of patients with common epilepsy syndromes and subsequently ask whether a significant fraction of benign variants have been misclassified as pathogenic. Methods: We screened a discovery cohort of 448 patients with a broad range of common genetic epilepsies and 734 controls for previously reported SCN1A mutations that were assumed to be disease causing. We re-evaluated the evidence for pathogenicity of the identified variants using in silico predictions, segregation, original reports, available functional data and assessment of allele frequencies in healthy individuals as well as in a follow up cohort of 777 patients. Results and Interpretation: We identified 8 known missense mutations, previously reported as pathogenic, in a total of 17 unrelated epilepsy patients (17/448; 3.80%). Our re-evaluation indicates that 7 out of these 8 variants (p.R27T; p.R28C; p.R542Q; p.R604H; p.T1250M; p.E1308D; p.R1928G; NP-001159435.1) are not pathogenic. Only the p.T1174S mutation may be considered as a genetic risk factor for epilepsy of small effect size based on the enrichment in patients (P = 6.60 7 10-4; OR = 0.32, fishers exact test), previous functional studies but incomplete penetrance. Thus, incorporation of previous studies in genetic counseling of SCN1A sequencing results is challenging and may produce incorrect conclusions

Evaluation of presumably disease causing SCN1A variants in a cohort of common epilepsy syndromes

Objective: The SCN1A gene, coding for the voltage-gated Na+ channel alpha subunit NaV1.1, is the clinically most relevant epilepsy gene. With the advent of high-throughput next-generation sequencing, clinical laboratories are generating an ever-increasing catalogue of SCN1A variants. Variants are more likely to be classified as pathogenic if they have already been identified previously in a patient with epilepsy. Here, we critically re-evaluate the pathogenicity of this class of variants in a cohort of patients with common epilepsy syndromes and subsequently ask whether a significant fraction of benign variants have been misclassified as pathogenic. Methods: We screened a discovery cohort of 448 patients with a broad range of common genetic epilepsies and 734 controls for previously reported SCN1A mutations that were assumed to be disease causing. We re-evaluated the evidence for pathogenicity of the identified variants using in silico predictions, segregation, original reports, available functional data and assessment of allele frequencies in healthy individuals as well as in a follow up cohort of 777 patients. Results and Interpretation: We identified 8 known missense mutations, previously reported as path

Natural clusters of tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC)-associated neuropsychiatric disorders (TAND): new findings from the TOSCA TAND research project.

BACKGROUND: Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC)-associated neuropsychiatric disorders (TAND) have unique, individual patterns that pose significant challenges for diagnosis, psycho-education, and intervention planning. A recent study suggested that it may be feasible to use TAND Checklist data and data-driven methods to generate natural TAND clusters. However, the study had a small sample size and data from only two countries. Here, we investigated the replicability of identifying natural TAND clusters from a larger and more diverse sample from the TOSCA study. METHODS: As part of the TOSCA international TSC registry study, this embedded research project collected TAND Checklist data from individuals with TSC. Correlation coefficients were calculated for TAND variables to generate a correlation matrix. Hierarchical cluster and factor analysis methods were used for data reduction and identification of natural TAND clusters. RESULTS: A total of 85 individuals with TSC (female:male, 40:45) from 7 countries were enrolled. Cluster analysis grouped the TAND variables into 6 clusters: a scholastic cluster (reading, writing, spelling, mathematics, visuo-spatial difficulties, disorientation), a hyperactive/impulsive cluster (hyperactivity, impulsivity, self-injurious behavior), a mood/anxiety cluster (anxiety, depressed mood, sleep difficulties, shyness), a neuropsychological cluster (attention/concentration difficulties, memory, attention, dual/multi-tasking, executive skills deficits), a dysregulated behavior cluster (mood swings, aggressive outbursts, temper tantrums), and an autism spectrum disorder (ASD)-like cluster (delayed language, poor eye contact, repetitive behaviors, unusual use of language, inflexibility, difficulties associated with eating). The natural clusters mapped reasonably well onto the six-factor solution generated. Comparison between cluster and factor solutions from this study and the earlier feasibility study showed significant similarity, particularly in cluster solutions. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this TOSCA research project in an independent international data set showed that the combination of cluster analysis and factor analysis may be able to identify clinically meaningful natural TAND clusters. Findings were remarkably similar to those identified in the earlier feasibility study, supporting the potential robustness of these natural TAND clusters. Further steps should include examination of larger samples, investigation of internal consistency, and evaluation of the robustness of the proposed natural clusters

Plant cell culture technology in the cosmetics and food industries : current state and future trends

The production of drugs, cosmetics, and food which are derived from plant cell and tissue cultures has a long tradition. The emerging trend of manufacturing cosmetics and food products in a natural and sustainable manner has brought a new wave in plant cell culture technology over the past 10 years. More than 50 products based on extracts from plant cell cultures have made their way into the cosmetics industry during this time, whereby the majority is produced with plant cell suspension cultures. In addition, the first plant cell culture-based food supplement ingredients, such as Echigena Plus and Teoside 10, are now produced at production scale. In this mini review, we discuss the reasons for and the characteristics as well as the challenges of plant cell culture-based productions for the cosmetics and food industries. It focuses on the current state of the art in this field. In addition, two examples of the latest developments in plant cell culture-based food production are presented, that is, superfood which boosts health and food that can be produced in the lab or at home

Computational Models of Classical Conditioning guest editors’ introduction

In the present special issue, the performance of current computational models of classical conditioning was evaluated under three requirements: (1) Models were to be tested against a list of previously agreed-upon phenomena; (2) the parameters were fixed across simulations; and (3) the simulations used to test the models had to be made available. These requirements resulted in three major products: (a) a list of fundamental classical-conditioning results for which there is a consensus about their reliability; (b) the necessary information to evaluate each of the models on the basis of its ordinal successes in accounting for the experimental data; and (c) a repository of computational models ready to generate simulations. We believe that the contents of this issue represent the 2012 state of the art in computational modeling of classical conditioning and provide a way to find promising avenues for future model development

Writing impact case studies: a comparative study of high-scoring and low-scoring case studies from REF2014

This paper reports on two studies that used qualitative thematic and quantitative linguistic analysis, respectively, to assess the content and language of the largest ever sample of graded research impact case studies, from the UK Research Excellence Framework 2014 (REF). The paper provides the first empirical evidence across disciplinary main panels of statistically significant linguistic differences between high- versus low-scoring case studies, suggesting that implicit rules linked to written style may have contributed to scores alongside the published criteria on the significance, reach and attribution of impact. High-scoring case studies were more likely to provide specific and high-magnitude articulations of significance and reach than low-scoring cases. High-scoring case studies contained attributional phrases which were more likely to attribute research and/or pathways to impact, and they were written more coherently (containing more explicit causal connections between ideas and more logical connectives) than low-scoring cases. High-scoring case studies appear to have conformed to a distinctive new genre of writing, which was clear and direct, and often simplified in its representation of causality between research and impact, and less likely to contain expressions of uncertainty than typically associated with academic writing. High-scoring case studies in two Main Panels were significantly easier to read than low-scoring cases on the Flesch Reading Ease measure, although both high-scoring and low-scoring cases tended to be of “graduate” reading difficulty. The findings of our work enable impact case study authors to better understand the genre and make content and language choices that communicate their impact as effectively as possible. While directly relevant to the assessment of impact in the UK’s Research Excellence Framework, the work also provides insights of relevance to institutions internationally who are designing evaluation frameworks for research impact