Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).Studying the uncertainty in computationally expensive models has required the development of specialized methods, including alternative sampling techniques and response surface approaches. However, existing techniques for response surface development break down when the model being studied exhibits discontinuities or bifurcations. One uncertain variable that exhibits this behavior is the thermohaline circulation (THC) as modeled in three-dimensional general circulation models. This is a critical uncertainty for climate change policy studies. We investigate the development of a response surface for studying uncertainty in THC using the Deterministic Equivalent Modeling Method, a stochastic technique using expansions in orthogonal polynomials. We show that this approach is unable to reasonably approximate the model response. We demonstrate an alternative representation that accurately simulates the model’s response, using a basis function with properties similar to the model’s response over the uncertain parameter space. This indicates useful directions for future methodological improvements.This research was supported in part by the Methods and Models for Integrated Assessments Program of the National Science Foundation, Grant ATM-9909139, by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant Nos. DE-FG02-02ER63468 and DE-FG02-93ER61677, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (JPSPGC)

Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO2 forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO2-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO2-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO2 stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse.This research was supported in part by the Methods and Models for Integrated Assessments Program of the National Science Foundation, Grant ATM-9909139, by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DE-FG02-93ER61677, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (JPSPGC)

Remotely Supported Prehospital Ultrasound : Real-Time Communication Technology for Remote and Rural Communities

Highlands & Islands Enterprise, UK Technology Strategy Board’s Space and Life Sciences Catapult, University of Aberdeen’s dot.rural Digital Economy HubPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Beyond 'Global Production Networks': Australian Fashion Week's Trans-Sectoral Synergies

When studies of industrial organisation are informed by commodity chain, actor network, or global production network theories and focus on tracing commodity flows, social networks, or a combination of the two, they can easily overlook the less routine trans-sectoral associations that are crucial to the creation and realisation of value. This paper shifts attention to identifying the sites at which diverse specialisations meet to concentrate and amplify mutually reinforcing circuits of value. These valorisation processes are demonstrated in the case of Australian Fashion Week, an event in which multiple interests converge to synchronize different expressions of fashion ideas, actively construct fashion markets and enhance the value of a diverse range of fashionable commodities. Conceptualising these interconnected industries as components of a trans-sectoral fashion complex has implications for understanding regional development, world cities, production location, and the manner in which production systems “touch down” in different places

Community first responders and responder schemes in the United Kingdom: systematic scoping review

Background: Community First Responder (CFR) schemes support lay people to respond to medical emergencies, working closely with ambulance services. They operate widely in the UK. There has been no previous review of UK literature on these schemes. This is the first systematic scoping review of UK literature on CFR schemes, which identifies the reasons for becoming a CFR, requirements for training and feedback and confusion between the CFR role and that of ambulance service staff. This study also reveals gaps in the evidence base for CFR schemes. Methods: We conducted a systematic scoping review of the published literature, in the English language from 2000 onwards using specific search terms in six databases. Narrative synthesis was used to analyse article content. Results: Nine articles remained from the initial search of 15,969 articles after removing duplicates, title and abstract and then full text review. People were motivated to become CFRs through an altruistic desire to help others. They generally felt rewarded by their work but recognised that the help they provided was limited by their training compared with ambulance staff. There were concerns about the possible emotional impact on CFRs responding to incidents. CFRs felt that better feedback would enhance their learning. Ongoing training and support were viewed as essential to enable CFRs to progress. They perceived that public recognition of the CFR role was low, patients sometimes confusing them with ambulance staff. Relationships with the ambulance service were sometimes ambivalent due to confusion over roles. There was support for local autonomy of CFR schemes but with greater sharing of best practice. Discussion: Most studies dated from 2005 and were descriptive rather than analytical. In the UK and Australia CFRs are usually lay volunteers equipped with basic skills for responding to medical emergencies, whereas in the US they include other emergency staff as well as lay people. Conclusion: Opportunities for future research include exploring experiences and perceptions of patients who have been treated by CFRs and other stakeholders, while also evaluating the effectiveness and costs of CFR schemes

Deleterious- and Disease-Allele Prevalence in Healthy Individuals: Insights from Current Predictions, Mutation Databases, and Population-Scale Resequencing

We have assessed the numbers of potentially deleterious variants in the genomes of apparently healthy humans by using (1) low-coverage whole-genome sequence data from 179 individuals in the 1000 Genomes Pilot Project and (2) current predictions and databases of deleterious variants. Each individual carried 281–515 missense substitutions, 40–85 of which were homozygous, predicted to be highly damaging. They also carried 40–110 variants classified by the Human Gene Mutation Database (HGMD) as disease-causing mutations (DMs), 3–24 variants in the homozygous state, and many polymorphisms putatively associated with disease. Whereas many of these DMs are likely to represent disease-allele-annotation errors, between 0 and 8 DMs (0–1 homozygous) per individual are predicted to be highly damaging, and some of them provide information of medical relevance. These analyses emphasize the need for improved annotation of disease alleles both in mutation databases and in the primary literature; some HGMD mutation data have been recategorized on the basis of the present findings, an iterative process that is both necessary and ongoing. Our estimates of deleterious-allele numbers are likely to be subject to both overcounting and undercounting. However, our current best mean estimates of ∼400 damaging variants and ∼2 bona fide disease mutations per individual are likely to increase rather than decrease as sequencing studies ascertain rare variants more effectively and as additional disease alleles are discovered

Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).The MIT Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model's first projections were published in 2003 substantial improvements have been made to the model and improved estimates of the probability distributions of uncertain input parameters have become available. The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003 projections, e.g., the median surface warming in 2091 to 2100 is 5.1°C compared to 2.4°C in the earlier study. Many changes contribute to the stronger warming; among the more important ones are taking into account the cooling in the second half of the 20th century due to volcanic eruptions for input parameter estimation and a more sophisticated method for projecting GDP growth which eliminated many low emission scenarios. However, if recently published data, suggesting stronger 20th century ocean warming, are used to determine the input climate parameters, the median projected warning at the end of the 21st century is only 4.1°C. Nevertheless all our simulations have a very small probability of warming less than 2.4°C, the lower bound of the IPCC AR4 projected likely range for the A1FI scenario, which has forcing very similar to our median projection. The probability distribution for the surface warming produced by our analysis is more symmetric than the distribution assumed by the IPCC due to a different feedback between the climate and the carbon cycle, resulting from a different treatment of the carbon-nitrogen interaction in the terrestrial ecosystem.his work was supported in part by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy Grant No. DE-FG02-93ER61677, NSF, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

A molecular insight into algal-oomycete warfare : cDNA analysis of Ectocarpus siliculosus infected with the basal oomycete Eurychasma dicksonii

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Comparison of the Airtraq® and Truview® laryngoscopes to the Macintosh laryngoscope for use by Advanced Paramedics in easy and simulated difficult intubation in manikins

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Paramedics are frequently required to perform tracheal intubation, a potentially life-saving manoeuvre in severely ill patients, in the prehospital setting. However, direct laryngoscopy is often more difficult in this environment, and failed tracheal intubation constitutes an important cause of morbidity. Novel indirect laryngoscopes, such as the Airtraq^®and Truview^®laryngoscopes may reduce this risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compared the efficacy of these devices to the Macintosh laryngoscope when used by 21 Paramedics proficient in direct laryngoscopy, in a randomized, controlled, manikin study. Following brief didactic instruction with the Airtraq^®and Truview^®laryngoscopes, each participant took turns performing laryngoscopy and intubation with each device, in an easy intubation scenario and following placement of a hard cervical collar, in a SimMan^®manikin.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Airtraq^®reduced the number of optimization manoeuvres and reduced the potential for dental trauma when compared to the Macintosh, in both the normal and simulated difficult intubation scenarios. In contrast, the Truview^®increased the duration of intubation attempts, and required a greater number of optimization manoeuvres, compared to both the Macintosh and Airtraq^®devices.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The Airtraq^®laryngoscope performed more favourably than the Macintosh and Truview^®devices when used by Paramedics in this manikin study. Further studies are required to extend these findings to the clinical setting.</p