Managing the Roman Empire for the long term: risk assessment and management policy in the fifth to seventh centuries

This chapter analyses the reasons for the survival of the eastern Roman state from three different but complementary angles: imperial administration, the environmental conditions impacting land-use for the period, and the ability of the state to leverage resources. We conclude that a major contributory factor in survival was the effective use of natural resources and a self-reinforcing social-ecological system through which the state and its elites and infrastructure facilitated the survival of landscapes, generating the resources necessary for the state’s continued existence. In areas where this broke down—as in the western part of the empire—the Roman state in the long term disappeared

The Justinianic Plague: an inconsequential pandemic?

Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them. © 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

Concurrent sexual partnerships do not explain the HIV epidemics in Africa: a systematic review of the evidence

The notion that concurrent sexual partnerships are especially common in sub-Saharan Africa and explain the region's high HIV prevalence is accepted by many as conventional wisdom. In this paper, we evaluate the quantitative and qualitative evidence offered by the principal proponents of the concurrency hypothesis and analyze the mathematical model they use to establish the plausibility of the hypothesis

Not the End of the World? Post-Classical Decline and Recovery in Rural Anatolia

Between the foundation of Constantinople as capital of the eastern half of the Roman Empire in 330 CE and its sack by the Fourth Crusade in 1204 CE, the Byzantine Empire underwent a full cycle from political-economic stability, through rural insecurity and agrarian decline, and back to renewed prosperity. These stages plausibly correspond to the phases of over-extension (K), subsequent release (Ω) and recovery (α) of the Adaptive Cycle in Socio-Ecological Systems. Here we track and partly quantify the consequences of those changes in different regions of Anatolia, firstly for rural settlement (via regional archaeological surveys) and secondly for land cover (via pollen analysis). We also examine the impact of climate changes on the agrarian system. While individual histories vary, the archaeological record shows a major demographic decline between ca .650 and ca. 900 CE in central and southwestern Anatolia, which was then a frontier zone between Byzantine and Arab armies. In these regions, and also in northwest Anatolia, century-scale trends in pollen indicate a substantial decline in the production of cereal and tree crops, and a smaller decline in pastoral activity. During the subsequent recovery (α) phase after 900 CE there was strong regional differentiation, with central Anatolia moving to a new economic system based on agro-pastoralism, while lowland areas of northern and western Anatolia returned to the cultivation of commercial crops such as olive trees. The extent of recovery in the agrarian economy was broadly predictable by the magnitude of its preceding decline, but the trajectories of recovery varied between different regions

Application of new methods of environment analysis and assessment in landscape audits : case studies of urban areas like Czestochowa, Poland

Following the 2000 European Landscape Convention, a new act strengthening landscape protection instruments has been in force since 2015. It sets forth legal aspects of landscape shaping (Dziennik Ustaw 2015, poz. 774) and introduces landscape audits at the province level. A landscape audit consists in identification and characterization of selected landscapes, assessment of their value, selection of so-called priority landscapes and identification of threats for preservation of their value. An audit complies with GIS standards. Analyses use source materials, i.e. digital maps of physical-geographical mesoregions, current topographic maps of digital resources of cartographic databases, latest orthophotomaps and DTMs, maps of potential vegetation, geobotanic regionalization, historic-cultural regionalization and natural landscape types, documentation of historical and cultural values and related complementary resources. A special new methodology (Solon et al. 2014), developed for auditing, was tested in 2015 in an urban area (Myga-Piatek et al. 2015). Landscapes are characterized by determining their analytic (natural and cultural) and synthetic features, with particular focus on the stage of delimitation and identification of landscape units in urban areas. Czestochowa was selected as a case study due to its large natural (karst landscapes of the Czestochowa Upland, numerous forests, nature reserves) and cultural (Saint Mary’s Sanctuary, unique urban architecture) potential. Czestochowa is also a city of former iron ore and mineral resources exploitation, still active industry, dynamic urban sprawl within former farming areas, and dynamically growing tourism. Landscape delimitation and identification distinguished 75 landscape units basing on uniform landscape background (uniform cover and use of the land). Landscape assessment used a new assessment method for anthropogenic transformation of landscape – the indicator describing the correlation between the mean shape index (MSI) and the Shannon diversity index (SHDI) (Pukowiec-Kurda, Sobala 2016). Particular threats and planning suggestions, useful in development of urban areas, were presented for selected priority landscapes

Pollen-inferred regional vegetation patterns and demographic change in Southern Anatolia through the Holocene

Southern Anatolia is a highly significant area within the Mediterranean, particularly in terms of understanding how agriculture moved into Europe from neighbouring regions. This study uses pollen, palaeoclimate and archaeological evidence to investigate the relationships between demography and vegetation change, and to explore how the development of agriculture varied spatially. Data from 21 fossil pollen records have been transformed into forested, parkland and open vegetation types using cluster analysis. Patterns of change have been explored using non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) and through analysis of indicator groups, such as an Anthropogenic Pollen Index, and Simpson’s Diversity. Settlement data, which indicate population densities, and summed radiocarbon dates for archaeological sites have been used as a proxy for demographic change. The pollen and archaeological records confirm that farming can be detected earlier in Anatolia in comparison with many other parts of the Mediterranean. Dynamics of change in grazing indicators and the OJCV (Olea, Juglans, Castanea and Vitis) index for cultivated trees appear to match cycles of population expansion and decline. Vegetation and land use change is also influenced by other factors, such as climate change. Investigating the early impacts of anthropogenic activities (e.g. woodcutting, animal herding, the use of fire and agriculture) is key to understanding how societies have modified the environment since the mid–late Holocene, despite the capacity of ecological systems to absorb recurrent disturbances. The results of this study suggest that shifting human population dynamics played an important role in shaping land cover in central and southern Anatolia

Modelling climate and societal resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the last Millennium

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion(1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies.We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history

Assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions: current and future modelled scenarios

A first regional assessment of the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions was conducted in this study. Model simulations were carried out on a limited-area domain (at 15&thinsp;km horizontal resolution) centred over the Canadian Arctic, using the Environment and Climate Change Canada's on-line air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH (Global Environmental Multi-scale – Modelling Air quality and CHemistry), to investigate the contribution from the marine shipping emissions over the Canadian Arctic waters (at both present and projected future levels) to ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants (O3, PM2.5, NO2, and SO2), atmospheric deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N), and atmospheric loading and deposition of black carbon (BC) in the Arctic. Several model upgrades were introduced for this study, including the treatment of sea ice in the dry deposition parameterization, chemical lateral boundary conditions, and the inclusion of North American wildfire emissions. The model is shown to have similar skills in predicting ambient O3 and PM2.5 concentrations in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions, as the current operational air quality forecast models in North America and Europe. In particular, the model is able to simulate the observed O3 and PM components well at the Canadian high Arctic site, Alert. The model assessment shows that, at the current (2010) level, Arctic shipping emissions contribute to less than 1&thinsp;% of ambient O3 concentration over the eastern Canadian Arctic and between 1 and 5&thinsp;% of ambient PM2.5 concentration over the shipping channels. Arctic shipping emissions make a much greater contributions to the ambient NO2 and SO2 concentrations, at 10&thinsp;%–50&thinsp;% and 20&thinsp;%–100&thinsp;%, respectively. At the projected 2030 business-as-usual (BAU) level, the impact of Arctic shipping emissions is predicted to increase to up to 5&thinsp;% in ambient O3 concentration over a broad region of the Canadian Arctic and to 5&thinsp;%–20&thinsp;% in ambient PM2.5 concentration over the shipping channels. In contrast, if emission controls such as the ones implemented in the current North American Emission Control Area (NA ECA) are to be put in place over the Canadian Arctic waters, the impact of shipping to ambient criteria pollutants would be significantly reduced. For example, with NA-ECA-like controls, the shipping contributions to the population-weighted concentrations of SO2 and PM2.5 would be brought down to below the current level. The contribution of Canadian Arctic shipping to the atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen is small at the current level, &lt;&thinsp;5&thinsp;%, but is expected to increase to up to 20&thinsp;% for sulfur and 50&thinsp;% for nitrogen under the 2030 BAU scenario. At the current level, Canadian Arctic shipping also makes only small contributions to BC column loading and BC deposition, with &lt;&thinsp;0.1&thinsp;% on average and up to 2&thinsp;% locally over the eastern Canadian Arctic for the former, and between 0.1&thinsp;% and 0.5&thinsp;% over the shipping channels for the latter. The impacts are again predicted to increase at the projected 2030 BAU level, particularly over the Baffin Island and Baffin Bay area in response to the projected increase in ship traffic there, e.g., up to 15&thinsp;% on BC column loading and locally exceeding 30&thinsp;% on BC deposition. Overall, the study indicates that shipping-induced changes in atmospheric composition and deposition are at regional to local scales (particularly in the Arctic). Climate feedbacks are thus likely to act at these scales, so climate impact assessments will require modelling undertaken at much finer resolutions than those used in the existing radiative forcing and climate impact assessments.</p

Happiness around the world: A combined etic-emic approach across 63 countries

What does it mean to be happy? The vast majority of cross-cultural studies on happiness have employed a Western-origin, or "WEIRD" measure of happiness that conceptualizes it as a self-centered (or "independent"), high-arousal emotion. However, research from Eastern cultures, particularly Japan, conceptualizes happiness as including an interpersonal aspect emphasizing harmony and connectedness to others. Following a combined emicetic approach (Cheung, van de Vijver &amp; Leong, 2011), we assessed the cross-cultural applicability of a measure of independent happiness developed in the US (Subjective Happiness Scale; Lyubomirsky &amp; Lepper, 1999) and a measure of interdependent happiness developed in Japan (Interdependent Happiness Scale; Hitokoto &amp; Uchida, 2015), with data from 63 countries representing 7 sociocultural regions. Results indicate that the schema of independent happiness was more coherent in more WEIRD countries. In contrast, the coherence of interdependent happiness was unrelated to a country's "WEIRD-ness." Reliabilities of both happiness measures were lowest in African and Middle Eastern countries, suggesting these two conceptualizations of happiness may not be globally comprehensive. Overall, while the two measures had many similar correlates and properties, the self-focused concept of independent happiness is "WEIRD-er" than interdependent happiness, suggesting cross-cultural researchers should attend to both conceptualizations