A Recurrent Neural Network Survival Model: Predicting Web User Return Time

The size of a website's active user base directly affects its value. Thus, it is important to monitor and influence a user's likelihood to return to a site. Essential to this is predicting when a user will return. Current state of the art approaches to solve this problem come in two flavors: (1) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based solutions and (2) survival analysis methods. We observe that both techniques are severely limited when applied to this problem. Survival models can only incorporate aggregate representations of users instead of automatically learning a representation directly from a raw time series of user actions. RNNs can automatically learn features, but can not be directly trained with examples of non-returning users who have no target value for their return time. We develop a novel RNN survival model that removes the limitations of the state of the art methods. We demonstrate that this model can successfully be applied to return time prediction on a large e-commerce dataset with a superior ability to discriminate between returning and non-returning users than either method applied in isolation.Comment: Accepted into ECML PKDD 2018; 8 figures and 1 tabl

Inconsistency of the MLE for the joint distribution of interval censored survival times and continuous marks

This paper considers the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the joint distribution function of an interval censored survival time and a continuous mark variable. We provide a new explicit formula for the MLE in this problem. We use this formula and the mark specific cumulative hazard function of Huang and Louis (1998) to obtain the almost sure limit of the MLE. This result leads to necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency of the MLE which imply that the MLE is inconsistent in general. We show that the inconsistency can be repaired by discretizing the marks. Our theoretical results are supported by simulations.Comment: 27 pages, 4 figure

Limits on Production of Magnetic Monopoles Utilizing Samples from the DO and CDF Detectors at the Tevatron

We present 90% confidence level limits on magnetic monopole production at the Fermilab Tevatron from three sets of samples obtained from the D0 and CDF detectors each exposed to a proton-antiproton luminosity of $\sim175 {pb}^{-1}$ (experiment E-882). Limits are obtained for the production cross-sections and masses for low-mass accelerator-produced pointlike Dirac monopoles trapped and bound in material surrounding the D0 and CDF collision regions. In the absence of a complete quantum field theory of magnetic charge, we estimate these limits on the basis of a Drell-Yan model. These results (for magnetic charge values of 1, 2, 3, and 6 times the minimum Dirac charge) extend and improve previously published bounds.Comment: 18 pages, 17 figures, REVTeX

Superluminal neutrinos in long baseline experiments and SN1987a

Precise tests of Lorentz invariance in neutrinos can be performed using long baseline experiments such as MINOS and OPERA or neutrinos from astrophysical sources. The MINOS collaboration reported a measurement of the muonic neutrino velocities that hints to super-luminal propagation, very recently confirmed at 6 sigma by OPERA. We consider a general parametrisation which goes beyond the usual linear or quadratic violation considered in quantum-gravitational models. We also propose a toy model showing why Lorentz violation can be specific to the neutrino sector and give rise to a generic energy behaviour E^alpha, where alpha is not necessarily an integer number. Supernova bounds and the preferred MINOS and OPERA regions show a tension, due to the absence of shape distortion in the neutrino bunch in the far detector of MINOS. The energy independence of the effect has also been pointed out by the OPERA results.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures; comment on Cherenkov emission added, version matching JHEP published pape

Improved Experimental Limits on the Production of Magnetic Monopoles

We present new limits on low mass accelerator-produced point-like Dirac magnetic monopoles trapped and bound in matter surrounding the D\O collision region of the Tevatron at Fermilab (experiment E-882). In the context of a Drell-Yan mechanism, we obtain cross section limits for the production of monopoles with magnetic charge values of 1, 2, 3, and 6 times the minimum Dirac charge of the order of picobarns, some hundred times smaller than found in similar previous Fermilab searches. Mass limits inferred from these cross section limits are presented.Comment: 5 pages, 4 eps figures, REVTe

Revision rates after primary hip and knee replacement in England between 2003 and 2006

<b>Background</b>: Hip and knee replacement are some of the most frequently performed surgical procedures in the world. Resurfacing of the hip and unicondylar knee replacement are increasingly being used. There is relatively little evidence on their performance. To study performance of joint replacement in England, we investigated revision rates in the first 3 y after hip or knee replacement according to prosthesis type. <b>Methods and Findings</b>: We linked records of the National Joint Registry for England and Wales and the Hospital Episode Statistics for patients with a primary hip or knee replacement in the National Health Service in England between April 2003 and September 2006. Hospital Episode Statistics records of succeeding admissions were used to identify revisions for any reason. 76,576 patients with a primary hip replacement and 80,697 with a primary knee replacement were included (51% of all primary hip and knee replacements done in the English National Health Service). In hip patients, 3-y revision rates were 0.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8%–1.1%) with cemented, 2.0% (1.7%–2.3%) with cementless, 1.5% (1.1%–2.0% CI) with “hybrid” prostheses, and 2.6% (2.1%–3.1%) with hip resurfacing (p < 0.0001). Revision rates after hip resurfacing were increased especially in women. In knee patients, 3-y revision rates were 1.4% (1.2%–1.5% CI) with cemented, 1.5% (1.1%–2.1% CI) with cementless, and 2.8% (1.8%–4.5% CI) with unicondylar prostheses (p < 0.0001). Revision rates after knee replacement strongly decreased with age. <b>Interpretation</b>: Overall, about one in 75 patients needed a revision of their prosthesis within 3 y. On the basis of our data, consideration should be given to using hip resurfacing only in male patients and unicondylar knee replacement only in elderly patients

Multimodality hard-x-ray imaging of a chromosome with nanoscale spatial resolution

We developed a scanning hard x-ray microscope using a new class of x-ray nano-focusing optic called a multilayer Laue lens and imaged a chromosome with nanoscale spatial resolution. The combination of the hard x-ray's superior penetration power, high sensitivity to elemental composition, high spatial-resolution and quantitative analysis creates a unique tool with capabilities that other microscopy techniques cannot provide. Using this microscope, we simultaneously obtained absorption-, phase-, and fluorescence-contrast images of Pt-stained human chromosome samples. The high spatial-resolution of the microscope and its multi-modality imaging capabilities enabled us to observe the internal ultra-structures of a thick chromosome without sectioning it