Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: a test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

The current generation of large-scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component. Large-scale groundwater models, involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries, are still rare mainly due to a lack of hydro-geological data which are usually only available in developed countries. In this study, we propose a novel approach to construct large-scale groundwater models by using global datasets that are readily available. As the test-bed, we use the combined Rhine-Meuse basin that contains groundwater head data used to verify the model output. We start by building a distributed land surface model (30 arc-second resolution) to estimate groundwater recharge and river discharge. Subsequently, a MODFLOW transient groundwater model is built and forced by the recharge and surface water levels calculated by the land surface model. Results are promising despite the fact that we still use an offline procedure to couple the land surface and MODFLOW groundwater models (i.e. the simulations of both models are separately performed). The simulated river discharges compare well to the observations. Moreover, based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run several groundwater model scenarios with various hydro-geological parameter settings, we observe that the model can reasonably well reproduce the observed groundwater head time series. However, we note that there are still some limitations in the current approach, specifically because the offline-coupling technique simplifies the dynamic feedbacks between surface water levels and groundwater heads, and between soil moisture states and groundwater heads. Also the current sensitivity analysis ignores the uncertainty of the land surface model output. Despite these limitations, we argue that the results of the current model show a promise for large-scale groundwater modeling practices, including for data-poor environments and at the global scale

Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

Potential evaporation (PET) is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1) evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2) tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles. <br><br> A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level) between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts), the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e.g. Orange, Murray and Zambezi). Furthermore, the Penman-Monteith equation has a high data demand and the equation is sensitive to input data inaccuracy. Therefore, we recommend the re-calibrated form of the Hargreaves equation which globally gave reference PET values comparable to CRU derived values for multiple climate conditions. <br><br> The resulting gridded daily PET time series provide a new reference dataset that can be used for future hydrological impact assessments in further research, or more specifically, for the statistical downscaling of daily PET derived from raw GCM data. The dataset can be downloaded from <a href ="http://opendap.deltares.nl/thredds/dodsC/opendap/deltares/FEWS-IPCC"target="_blank">http://opendap.deltares.nl/thredds/dodsC/opendap/deltares/FEWS-IPCC</a>

Patterns of postural sway in high anxious children

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Factors associated with non-participation and drop-out in a lifestyle intervention for workers with an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Non-response and drop-out are problems that are commonly encountered in health promotion trials. Understanding the health-related characteristics of non-participants and drop-outs and the reasons for non-participation and drop-out may be beneficial for future intervention trials.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Male construction workers with an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were invited to participate in a lifestyle intervention study. In order to investigate the associations between participation and CVD risk factors, and drop-out and CVD risk factors, crude and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed. The reasons for non-participation and drop-out were assessed qualitatively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>20% of the workers who were invited decided to participate; 8.6% of the participants dropped out before the first follow-up measurement. The main reasons for non-participation were 'no interest', 'current (para-)medical treatment', and 'feeling healthy', and for drop-out they were 'lack of motivation', 'current (para-)medical treatment', and 'disappointment'. Participants were 4.2 years older, had a higher blood pressure, higher total cholesterol, and lower HDL cholesterol than non-participants, and were more likely to report 'tiredness and/or stress' and 'chest pain and/or shortness of breath'. After adjusting for age, most risk factors were not significantly associated with participation. Drop-outs were 4.6 years younger than those who completed the study. The prevalence of smoking was higher among non-participants and drop-outs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Participants had a worse CVD risk profile than non-participants, mainly because of the difference in age. Non-participants and drop-outs were younger and more likely to be smokers. The main reasons for non-participation and drop-out were health-related. Investigators in the field of health promotion should be encouraged to share comparable information.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN60545588</p

Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control experiment 20C3M) are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that have a high likelihood and are consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1) the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2) the quantification of notable consistent changes calculated relative to the GCM specific natural variability. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions the likelihood of hydrological change is large. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt; Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases strongly for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube while discharge of monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods

Моделювання процесу обробки на фрезерному верстаті 6Р13Ф3 та прогнозування показників процесу стружкоутворення

Розроблено методологію побудови раціональної з точки зору витрат ресурсів обчислювальної системи скінчено-елементної сітки складної технологічної системи, що включає елементи різної маси, жорсткості та розмірів, а також рухомі та нерухомі з’єднання зі скінченою величиною контактної жорсткості. Проведені пошукові розрахунки процесу стружкоутворення у абсолютно жорсткій та податливій технологічній системах, результати яких показали, що переміщення у технологічній системі в момент врізання призводять до запізнення початку сталого стружкоутворення, додаткового тертя зубів о заготовку без різання та активації вібрацій. При цитуванні документа, використовуйте посилання http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/2685

Volume and diagnosis: an approach to cross-border care in eight European countries

Objectives: Mobility of patients is a pertinent issue on the European Union's agenda. This study aimed to estimate the volume and main diagnoses of cross-border care in eight European countries, in order to provide policy makers with background information about the nature of patient mobility in Europe. Methods: This article reports the combined findings from three independent studies that compiled self-reported information on admissions data and main diagnoses from more than 200 hospitals in eight European countries. Results: The average volume of cross-border patients accounted for less than 1% of total admissions in the hospitals studied here. Diseases of the circulatory system (mainly acute myocardial infarction) and fractures were the most common reasons for hospitalisation of European patients abroad. Deliveries and other diagnoses related to pregnancy, pneumonia, appendicitis and other diseases of the digestive system, aftercare procedures, and disorders of the eye and adnexa were also common diagnoses for this population. Conclusions: Hospitals should reinforce their efforts to adapt the care provided to the needs of foreign patients in treatment areas that cover the most frequent pathologies identified in this populatio

First order phase transition from the vortex liquid to an amorphous solid

We present a systematic study of the topology of the vortex solid phase in superconducting Bi$_{2}$Sr$_{2}$CaCu$_{2}$O$_{8}$ samples with low doses of columnar defects. A new state of vortex matter imposed by the presence of geometrical contours associated with the random distribution of columns is found. The results show that the first order liquid-solid transition in this vortex matter does not require a structural symmetry change.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Barriers and facilitators perceived by healthcare professionals for implementing lifestyle interventions in patients with osteoarthritis:a scoping review

OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview of barriers and facilitators that healthcare professionals (HCPs) perceive regarding the implementation of lifestyle interventions (LIs) in patients with hip and/or knee osteoarthritis (OA). DESIGN: Scoping review. DATA SOURCES: The databases PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Library were searched from inception up to January 2021. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Primary research articles with a quantitative, qualitative or mixed-methods design were eligible for inclusion if they reported: (1) perceptions of primary and/or secondary HCPs (population); (2) on implementing LIs with physical activity and/or weight management as key components (concept) and (3) on conservative management of hip and/or knee OA (context). Articles not published in English, German or Dutch were excluded. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Barriers and facilitators were extracted by two researchers independently. Subsequently, the extracted factors were linked to a framework based on the Tailored Implementation for Chronic Diseases checklist. RESULTS: Thirty-six articles were included. In total, 809 factors were extracted and subdivided into nine domains. The extracted barriers were mostly related to non-optimal interdisciplinary collaboration, patients’ negative attitude towards LIs, patients’ low health literacy and HCPs’ lack of knowledge and skills around LIs or promoting behavioural change. The extracted facilitators were mostly related to good interdisciplinary collaboration, a positive perception of HCPs’ own role in implementing LIs, the content or structure of LIs and HCPs’ positive attitude towards LIs. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple individual and environmental factors influence the implementation of LIs by HCPs in patients with hip and/or knee OA. The resulting overview of barriers and facilitators can guide future research on the implementation of LIs within OA care. To investigate whether factor frequency is related to the relevance of each domain, further research should assess the relative importance of the identified factors involving all relevant disciplines of primary and secondary HCPs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019129348