A Mechanisms-Based Approach to Detecting Recent Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Change

Both naturally occurring La Niña events and model-projected anthropogenic-driven global warming are associated with widespread drying in the subtropics to midlatitudes. Models suggest anthropogenic drying should already be underway but climate variability on interannual to multidecadal time scales can easily obscure any emerging trend, making it hard to assess the validity of the simulated forced change. Here, the authors address this problem by using model simulations and the twentieth-century reanalysis to distinguish between natural variability of, and radiatively forced change in, hydroclimate on the basis of the mechanisms of variations in the three-dimensional moisture budget that drive variations in precipitation minus evaporation (P 2 E). Natural variability of P 2 E is dominated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and is "dynamics dominated" in that the associated global P2E anomalies are primarily driven by changes in circulation. This is quite well reproduced in the multimodel mean of 15 models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3). In contrast, radiatively forced P 2 E change is "thermodynamics mediated" in that the rise in specific humidity leads to intensified patterns of moisture transport and P 2 E. But, as for ENSO, the poleward shift of the storm tracks and mean meridional circulation cells also contribute to changes in P 2 E. However, La Niña and radiatively forced changes in the zonal mean flow are distinct in the tropics. These distinctions are applied to the post-1979 record of P 2 E in the twentieth-century reanalysis. ENSO-related variations strongly influence the observed P 2 E trend since 1979, but removal of this influence leaves an emerging pattern of P 2 E change consistent with the predictions of the IPCC AR4/CMIP3 models over this period together with, to some extent, consistent contributions from dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms and consistent changes in the zonal mean circulation. The forced trends are currently weak compared to those caused by internal variability

Pacific Ocean Forcing and Atmospheric Variability are the Dominant Causes of Spatially Widespread Droughts in the Contiguous United States

The contributions of oceanic and atmospheric variability to spatially widespread summer droughts in the contiguous United States (hereafter, pan-CONUS droughts) are investigated using 16-member ensembles of the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1856 to 2012. The employed SST forcing fields are either (i) global or restricted to the (ii) tropical Pacific or (iii) tropical Atlantic to isolate the impacts of these two ocean regions on pan-CONUS droughts. Model results show that SST forcing of pan-CONUS droughts originates almost entirely from the tropical Pacific because of atmospheric highs from the northern Pacific to eastern North America established by La Nia conditions, with little contribution from the tropical Atlantic. Notably, in all three model configurations, internal atmospheric variability influences pan-CONUS drought occurrence by as much or more than the ocean forcing and can alone cause pan-CONUS droughts by establishing a dominant high centered over the US montane West. Similar results are found for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Model results are compared to the observational record, which supports model-inferred contributions to pan-CONUS droughts from La Nias and internal atmospheric variability. While there may be an additional association with warm Atlantic SSTs in the observational record, this association is ambiguous due to the limited number of observed pan-CONUS. The ambiguity thus opens the possibility that the observational results are limited by sampling over the 20th-century and not at odds with the suggested dominance of Pacific Ocean forcing in the model ensembles

Theoretical Transmission Spectra During Extrasolar Giant Planet Transits

The recent transit observation of HD 209458 b - an extrasolar planet orbiting a sun-like star - confirmed that it is a gas giant and determined that its orbital inclination is 85 degrees. This inclination makes possible investigations of the planet atmosphere. In this paper we discuss the planet transmission spectra during a transit. The basic tenet of the method is that the planet atmosphere absorption features will be superimposed on the stellar flux as the stellar flux passes through the planet atmosphere above the limb. The ratio of the planet's transparent atmosphere area to the star area is small, approximately 10^{-3} to 10^{-4}; for this method to work very strong planet spectral features are necessary. We use our models of close-in extrasolar giant planets to estimate promising absorption signatures: the alkali metal lines, in particular the Na I and K I resonance doublets, and the He I $2^3S$ - $2^3P$ triplet line at 1083.0 nm. If successful, observations will constrain the line-of-sight temperature, pressure, and density. The most important point is that observations will constrain the cloud depth, which in turn will distinguish between different atmosphere models. We also discuss the potential of this method for EGPs at different orbital distances and orbiting non-solar-type stars.Comment: revised to agree with accepted paper, ApJ, in press. 12 page

Ranges of Atmospheric Mass and Composition of Super Earth Exoplanets

Terrestrial-like exoplanets may obtain atmospheres from three primary sources: Capture of nebular gases, degassing during accretion, and degassing from subsequent tectonic activity. Here we model degassing during accretion to estimate the range of atmospheric mass and composition on exoplanets ranging from 1 to 30 Earth masses. We use bulk compositions drawn from primitive and differentiated meteorite compositions. Degassing alone can create a wide range of masses of planetary atmospheres, ranging from less than a percent of the planet's total mass up to ~6 mass% of hydrogen, ~20 mass% of water, and/or ~5 mass% of carbon compounds. Hydrogen-rich atmospheres can be outgassed as a result of oxidizing metallic iron with water, and excess water and carbon can produce atmospheres through simple degassing. As a byproduct of our atmospheric outgassing models we find that modest initial water contents (10 mass% of the planet and above) create planets with deep surface liquid water oceans soon after accretion is complete.Comment: ApJ, in press. 32 pages, 6 figure

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming

The mechanisms of changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle projected by 15 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 and used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report are analyzed by computing differences between 2046 and 2065 and 1961 and 2000. The contributions to changes in precipitation minus evaporation, P − E, caused thermodynamically by changes in specific humidity, dynamically by changes in circulation, and by changes in moisture transports by transient eddies are evaluated. The thermodynamic and dynamic contributions are further separated into advective and divergent components. The nonthermodynamic contributions are then related to changes in the mean and transient circulation. The projected change in P − E involves an intensification of the existing pattern of P − E with wet areas [the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and mid- to high latitudes] getting wetter and arid and semiarid regions of the subtropics getting drier. In addition, the subtropical dry zones expand poleward. The accentuation of the twentieth-century pattern of P − E is in part explained by increases in specific humidity via both advection and divergence terms. Weakening of the tropical divergent circulation partially opposes the thermodynamic contribution by creating a tendency to decreased P − E in the ITCZ and to increased P − E in the descending branches of the Walker and Hadley cells. The changing mean circulation also causes decreased P − E on the poleward flanks of the subtropics because the descending branch of the Hadley Cell expands and the midlatitude meridional circulation cell shifts poleward. Subtropical drying and poleward moistening are also contributed to by an increase in poleward moisture transport by transient eddies. The thermodynamic contribution to changing P − E, arising from increased specific humidity, is almost entirely accounted for by atmospheric warming under fixed relative humidity

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming

The mechanisms of changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle projected by 15 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 and used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report are analyzed by computing differences between 2046 and 2065 and 1961 and 2000. The contributions to changes in precipitation minus evaporation, P − E, caused thermodynamically by changes in specific humidity, dynamically by changes in circulation, and by changes in moisture transports by transient eddies are evaluated. The thermodynamic and dynamic contributions are further separated into advective and divergent components. The nonthermodynamic contributions are then related to changes in the mean and transient circulation. The projected change in P − E involves an intensification of the existing pattern of P − E with wet areas [the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and mid- to high latitudes] getting wetter and arid and semiarid regions of the subtropics getting drier. In addition, the subtropical dry zones expand poleward. The accentuation of the twentieth-century pattern of P − E is in part explained by increases in specific humidity via both advection and divergence terms. Weakening of the tropical divergent circulation partially opposes the thermodynamic contribution by creating a tendency to decreased P − E in the ITCZ and to increased P − E in the descending branches of the Walker and Hadley cells. The changing mean circulation also causes decreased P − E on the poleward flanks of the subtropics because the descending branch of the Hadley Cell expands and the midlatitude meridional circulation cell shifts poleward. Subtropical drying and poleward moistening are also contributed to by an increase in poleward moisture transport by transient eddies. The thermodynamic contribution to changing P − E, arising from increased specific humidity, is almost entirely accounted for by atmospheric warming under fixed relative humidity

Hydrogen Recombination with Multilevel atoms

Hydrogen recombination is one of the most important atomic processes in many astrophysical objects such as Type II supernova (SN~II) atmospheres, the high redshift universe during the cosmological recombination era, and H II regions in the interstellar medium. Accurate predictions of the ionization fraction can be quite different from those given by a simple solution if one takes into account many angular momentum sub-states, non-resonant processes, and calculates the rates of all atomic processes from the solution of the radiative transfer equation instead of using a Planck function under the assumption of thermal equilibrium. We use the general purpose model atmosphere code PHOENIX 1D to compare how the fundamental probabilities such as the photo-ionization probability, the escape probability, and the collisional de-excitation probability are affected by the presence of other metals in the environment, multiple angular momentum sub-states, and non-resonant processes. Our comparisons are based on a model of SN 1999em, a SNe Type II, 20 days after its explosion.Comment: 29 pages, 12 figures, MNRAS, in pres

Cosmic Microwave Background constraints of decaying dark matter particle properties

If a component of cosmological dark matter is made up of massive particles - such as sterile neutrinos - that decay with cosmological lifetime to emit photons, the reionization history of the universe would be affected, and cosmic microwave background anisotropies can be used to constrain such a decaying particle model of dark matter. The optical depth depends rather sensitively on the decaying dark matter particle mass m_{dm}, lifetime tau_{dm}, and the mass fraction of cold dark matter f that they account for in this model. Assuming that there are no other sources of reionization and using the WMAP 7-year data, we find that 250 eV < m_{dm} < 1 MeV, whereas 2.23*10^3 yr < tau_{dm} < 1.23*10^18 yr. The best fit values for m_{dm} and tau_{dm}/f are 17.3 keV and 2.03*10^16 yr respectively.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figure

The Effect of Electric Fields on Cathodoluminescence from Phosphors

When external electric fields are applied to phosphors the cathodoluminescence (CL) at low beam energies is strongly affected. This experiment has been carried out on a variety of common phosphors used in cathode ray tube applications, and the electron beam energy, beam current, and electric field dependence of the CL are thoroughly characterized. It is found that the general features of these effects, particular y the strong polarity and beam energy dependence, are consistent with a model which assumes that the main effect of the electric fields is to alter the populations of electrons `and holes at the phosphor surface. This in turn, modulates the non-radiative energy losses that strongly affect the low-beam-energy CL efficiency. Because the external fields are applied without any direct contact to the phosphor material, the large changes seen in the CL decay rapidly as the beam-created electrons and holes polarize, shielding the externally applied bias. These results have important implications for designing phosphors which might be efficient at low electron energies