Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment

Here, we firstly demonstrate the potential of an advanced flow dependent data assimilation method for performing seasonal-to-decadal prediction and secondly, reassess the use of sea surface temperature (SST) for initialisation of these forecasts. We use the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM), which is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) and uses the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate observations. NorESM is a fully coupled system based on the Community Earth System Model version 1, which includes an ocean, an atmosphere, a sea ice and a land model. A numerically efficient coarse resolution version of NorESM is used. We employ a twin experiment methodology to provide an upper estimate of predictability in our model framework (i.e. without considering model bias) of NorCPM that assimilates synthetic monthly SST data (EnKF-SST). The accuracy of EnKF-SST is compared to an unconstrained ensemble run (FREE) and ensemble predictions made with near perfect (i.e. microscopic SST perturbation) initial conditions (PERFECT). We perform 10 cycles, each consisting of a 10-yr assimilation phase, followed by a 10-yr prediction. The results indicate that EnKF-SST improves sea level, ice concentration, 2 m atmospheric temperature, precipitation and 3-D hydrography compared to FREE. Improvements for the hydrography are largest near the surface and are retained for longer periods at depth. Benefits in salinity are retained for longer periods compared to temperature. Near-surface improvements are largest in the tropics, while improvements at intermediate depths are found in regions of large-scale currents, regions of deep convection, and at the Mediterranean Sea outflow. However, the benefits are often small compared to PERFECT, in particular, at depth suggesting that more observations should be assimilated in addition to SST. The EnKF-SST system is also tested for standard ocean circulation indices and demonstrates decadal predictability for Atlantic overturning and sub-polar gyre circulations, and heat content in the Nordic Seas. The system beats persistence forecast and shows skill for heat content in the Nordic Seas that is close to PERFECT

The role of salinity in the decadal variability of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 33 (2009): 777-793, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0523-2.An OGCM hindcast is used to investigate the linkages between North Atlantic Ocean salinity and circulation changes during 1963–2003. The focus is on the eastern subpolar region consisting of the Irminger Sea and the eastern North Atlantic where a careful assessment shows that the simulated interannual to decadal salinity changes in the upper 1500 m reproduce well those derived from the available record of hydrographic measurements. In the model, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is primarily driven by changes in deep water formation taking place in the Irminger Sea and, to a lesser extent, the Labrador Sea. Both are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The modeled interannual to decadal salinity changes in the subpolar basins are mostly controlled by circulation-driven anomalies of freshwater flux convergence, although surface salinity restoring to climatology and other boundary fluxes each account for approximately 25% of the variance. The NAO plays an important role: a positive NAO phase is associated with increased precipitation, reduced northward salt transport by the wind-driven intergyre gyre, and increased southward flows of freshwater across the Greenland-Scotland ridge. Since the NAO largely controlled deep convection in the subpolar gyre, fresher waters are found near the sinking region during convective events. This markedly differs from the active influence on the MOC that salinity exerts at decadal and longer timescales in most coupled models. The intensification of the MOC that follows a positive NAO phase by about 2 years does not lead to an increase in the northward salt transport into the subpolar domain at low frequencies because it is cancelled by the concomitant intensification of the subpolar gyre which shifts the subpolar front eastward and reduces the northward salt transport by the North Atlantic Current waters. This differs again from most coupled models, where the gyre intensification precedes that of the MOC by several years.Support from NSF Grant 82677800 with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and (to CF) from the Institut universitaire de France and European FP6 project DYNAMITE (contract 003903-GOCE) and (to JD) from the NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development through a scientific appointment administered by UCAR is gratefully acknowledged

Sicherung von Dämmen, Deichen und Stauanlagen : Handbuch für Theorie und Praxis ; Vol. V - 2015

Die Universität Siegen beschäftigt sich seit über 15 Jahren wissenschaftlich und im Bereich der anwendungsorientierten Forschung mit diesem Thema und hat dazu mittlerweile fünf Symposien durchgeführt. Mit der Veröffentlichung soll die langjährige Tradition als etablierte wissenschaftliche Plattform mit einem Wissensaustausch auf europäischer Ebene fortgesetzt werden. Die Bearbeitung dieser Thematik erfolgt auf der Basis der bewährten Kooperation zwischen Geotechnik und Wasserbau an der Universität Siegen. Aktuelle Ereignisse, wie z.B. die aus England oder Australien im Februar des Jahres 2014, machen uns aber auch deutlich, dass ein absoluter Schutz gegen Extremereignisse nicht möglich ist. Sie zeigen aber auch, dass dort wo technischer Hochwasserschutz konsequent umgesetzt wurde Schäden vermieden werden konnten. Wir sind nach den Ereignissen in den vergangenen Jahren aufgefordert wissenschaftlich noch leistungsfähigere und duktilere Systeme zu entwickeln. Weiter ist die Wissenschaft in der Pflicht, die Zivile Sicherheit im Hochwasser-schutz permanent zu bewerten, zu bearbeiten und ganzheitliche-interdisziplinäre und länderübergreifende Lösungen für die Zivilgesellschaft einzufordern

Efficacy of Fumaric Acid Esters in the R6/2 and YAC128 Models of Huntington's Disease

Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal dominantly inherited progressive neurodegenerative disease. The exact sequel of events finally resulting in neurodegeneration is only partially understood and there is no established protective treatment so far. Some lines of evidence speak for the contribution of oxidative stress to neuronal tissue damage. The fumaric acid ester dimethylfumarate (DMF) is a new disease modifying therapy currently in phase III studies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. DMF potentially exerts neuroprotective effects via induction of the transcription factor “nuclear factor E2-related factor 2” (Nrf2) and detoxification pathways. Thus, we investigated here the therapeutic efficacy of DMF in R6/2 and YAC128 HD transgenic mice which mimic many aspects of HD and are characterized by an enhanced generation of free radicals in neurons. Treatment with DMF significantly prevented weight loss in R6/2 mice between postnatal days 80–90. At the same time, DMF treatment led to an attenuated motor impairment as measured by the clasping score. Average survival in the DMF group was 100.5 days vs. 94.0 days in the placebo group. In the histological analysis on day 80, DMF treatment resulted in a significant preservation of morphologically intact neurons in the striatum as well as in the motor cortex. DMF treatment resulted in an increased Nrf2 immunoreactivity in neuronal subpopulations, but not in astrocytes. These beneficial effects were corroborated in YAC128 mice which, after one year of DMF treatment, also displayed reduced dyskinesia as well as a preservation of neurons. In conclusion, DMF may exert beneficial effects in mouse models of HD. Given its excellent side effect profile, further studies with DMF as new therapeutic approach in HD and other neurodegenerative diseases are warranted

Dimethyl fumarate blocks pro-inflammatory cytokine production via inhibition of TLR induced M1 and K63 ubiquitin chain formation

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) possesses anti-inflammatory properties and is approved for the treatment of psoriasis and multiple sclerosis. While clinically effective, its molecular target has remained elusive - although it is known to activate anti-oxidant pathways. We find that DMF inhibits pro-inflammatory cytokine production in response to TLR agonists independently of the Nrf2-Keap1 anti-oxidant pathway. Instead we show that DMF can inhibit the E2 conjugating enzymes involved in K63 and M1 polyubiquitin chain formation both in vitro and in cells. The formation of K63 and M1 chains is required to link TLR activation to downstream signaling, and consistent with the block in K63 and/or M1 chain formation, DMF inhibits NFκB and ERK1/2 activation, resulting in a loss of pro-inflammatory cytokine production. Together these results reveal a new molecular target for DMF and show that a clinically approved drug inhibits M1 and K63 chain formation in TLR induced signaling complexes. Selective targeting of E2s may therefore be a viable strategy for autoimmunity

The potential of using performance information in the assessment of existing quay walls

The design of new and assessment of existing quay walls is subject to large uncertainties. Dealing with these uncertainties is a crucial part of the engineering process. The way uncertainties are addressed has a large impact on construction and maintenance costs and on the reliability ultimately obtained. Especially in the assessment of existing structures the uncertainties can be large. An existing structure allows us to use actual performance information in the assessment, such as the structural response to loading. One way to obtain the structural response is test loading assisted by monitoring. In this research Bayesian updating is used to reduce uncertainties and to more effectively use the obtained measurement data. We present a case study of an existing quay structure along with fictitious measurement data to demonstrate the potential effects of test loading on the reliability of the structure. The results show that Bayesian updating successfully reduces the uncertainty (i.e. standard deviation) of the model prediction. Using monitoring data and Bayesian updating provides a more realistic model of the capacity of the existing quay structure and thus a more accurate reliability assessment. Which may lead to extension of the structure's lifetime or that higher loads can be accepted.</p