First verification results from an analysis-forecast smoother applied at FMI

Póster presentado en: 3rd European Nowcasting Conference, celebrada en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 24 al 26 de abril de 2019

The European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA): collaboration from bottom-up

The European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA) is an association of leading European research institutions in the field of climate research (http://www.ecra-climate.eu/, last access: 6 December 2018). ECRA is a bottom-up initiative and helps to facilitate the development of climate change research, combining the capacities of national research institutions, and inducing closer ties between existing national research initiatives, projects and infrastructures. ECRA works as an open platform to bring together climate researchers, providing excellent scientific expertise for policy makers and of societal relevance. The ECRA Board consists of representatives of ECRA partners and decides on governance, scientific priorities, and organisational matters. Currently organized into four Collaborative Programmes, climate scientists share their knowledge, experience and expertise to identify the most important research requirements for the future, thus developing a foresight approach. The CPs cover the topics: (1) Arctic variability and change, (2) Sea level changes and coastal impacts, (3) Changes in the hydrological cycle and (4) High impact events. The CP activities are planned in workshops and participation is open to all interested scientists from the relevant research fields. In particular, young researchers are actively encouraged to join the network. Each CP develops its joint research priorities for shaping European research into the future. Because scientific themes are interconnected, the four Collaborative Programmes interact with each other, e.g. through the organization of common workshops or joint applications. In addition, the Collaborative Programme leads attend the Board meetings. The different formats of ECRA meetings range from scientific workshops to briefing events and side events at conferences to involve different groups of interests. This facilitates the interaction of scientists, various stakeholder groups and politicians. A biennial open ECRA General Assembly that is organised in Brussels represents an umbrella event and acts as a platform for discussion and contact with stakeholders. This event is an excellent opportunity to jointly discuss research priorities of high societal relevance

Seamless nowcasting system development at the Finnish Meteorological Institute

Presentación realizada en la 3rd European Nowcasting Conference, celebrada en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 24 al 26 de abril de 2019

Communicating the amount of windstorm induced forest damage by the maximum wind gust speed in Finland

Windstorms are natural disturbance agents in forests playing a role in natural forest regeneration. In Finland, the most severe individual windstorms have commonly damaged 2–4 million&thinsp;m3 of timber. In addition to financial losses caused to forest owners, windthrown trees have in many cases seriously disrupted the functionality of the national power grid. Communicating windstorm risks in duty forecasting is difficult. In this study, we aimed at developing windstorm impact estimates for forest damage in Finland to help the forecaster to improve communication of the risks of windstorms. We have compared the volume of forest damage caused by the most intense windstorms in Finland during the recent decade to the observed maximum inland wind gust speeds associated with the same windstorms. It was found out that the volume of forest damage follows approximately a power relation as a function of wind gust speed with a power of ∼10. This is a tentative estimate because of a short time series and small number of inspected windstorms. Moreover, also wind direction, location of the affected area and soil properties among other factors have an impact to the amount of damage as illustrated in our inspection. Despite the shortness of the time series, we believe that our results demonstrating the steep increase in the impacts of windstorms with an increasing windstorm intensity are valuable. However, more detailed investigations with longer time series are needed in order to more specifically communicate the windstorm risks and their impacts in boreal forests.</p

Worldwide survey of awareness and needs concerning reanalyses, and respondents views on climate services

A worldwide online survey about user awareness of reanalyses and climate services was conducted in the period from November 2013 to February 2014 by the Coordinating Earth Observation Data Validation for Re-Analysis for Climate Services (CORE-CLIMAX) project. The 2,578 respondents were mostly users of global reanalyses [particularly the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reanalyses]. They answered queries arranged in 11 sections by choosing from preprepared check box responses and left several hundred free comments. Here, we analyze responses related to characteristics of reanalysis data and the perceived obstacles for using reanalysis in climate services. After examining responses from all survey participants, we focus on the answers from subgroups working in specific disciplines related to natural resource management: freshwater, agriculture and food production, forestry, and energy. Although the survey attracted mostly self-selected respondents from the education and public research and development (R&D) sectors, one-third of the energy-related subgroup were from the private sector. A large majority (91%) of the respondents use ECMWF reanalyses, but other reanalysis products are also widely used by them. Respondents expressed desire for reanalysis development in the areas of 1) training and online plotting tools, 2) more frequent updates, 3) explanations about uncertainties (the energy subgroup emphasizes this), 4) smaller biases, 5) less restrictive data policy, and 6) higher temporal and spatial resolution (the energy and water subgroups highlight this). Additionally, the subgroups (excluding energy) expressed interest in including in future climate services activities for applied weather and climate research for impact assessment and/or statistical impact analyses for improving weather warnings and their criteria.Peer reviewe

Keinot edistää sää- ja ilmastoriskien hallintaa

ELASTINEN-tutkimushankkeessa selvitettiin sää- ja ilmastoriskien hallinnan tilaa Suomessa ja arvioitiin riskienhallintakeinoja sekä eri toimijoiden roolia. Lisäksi tarkasteltiin, miten riskienhallinnan kustannuksia ja hyötyjä arvioidaan sekä miten riskienhallinta voidaan kääntää liiketoiminnaksi. Yhteiskunnan toimivuuden ja turvallisuuden ylläpitäminen edellyttää aktiivista varautumista sään ääriilmiöihin. Hankkeen tulosten mukaan suomalaiset organisaatiot eivät usein arvioi sää- ja ilmastoriskejä systemaattisesti. Varautumisessa tulee ottaa huomioon, että ilmastonmuutos voi muuttaa sään ääri-ilmiöitä, niiden esiintymistiheyttä ja voimakkuutta. Näin varautuminen sään ääri ilmiöihin on myös osa sopeutumista ilmastonmuutokseen. ELASTINEN-hanke esittää kolme suositusta, joilla sää- ja ilmastoriskien hallintaa voitaisiin parantaa ja sopeutumistyötä tukea: 1) monipuolistetaan tiedon tuottoa ja käyttöä, 2) vahvistetaan yhteistyötä ja kehitetään toimintatapoja sekä 3) kehitetään palveluita ja liiketoimintamahdollisuuksia. Suositusten toteuttamiseksi esitetään toimenpide-ehdotuksia, minkä lisäksi on tunnistettu toimien toteuttajatahoja. Nykyistä monipuolisempi ja helpommin saatavilla oleva tieto parantaisi mahdollisuuksia arvioida ja hallita sää- ja ilmastoriskejä sekä kykyä sopeutua ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksiin. Suomessa tulisi myös arvioida säännöllisesti Suomen ulkopuolella tapahtuvia ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia, jotka voivat heijastua Suomeen. Sää- ja ilmastoriskien hallintatoimia tulisi valita ja arvioida myös taloudellisen tehokkuuden näkökulmasta

Adaptation to climate change in Finland : Current state and future prospects

The KOKOSOPU project has aimed at a comprehensive evaluation of the national adaptation policy with particular emphasis on the National Adaptation Plan and international policy development. In addition, future challenges related to societal development have been taken into account. Projections of climate change, Finland’s Climate Act and the strengthened adaptation policy in the EU emphasise the importance of the national adaptation policy. A key objective of the National Adaptation Plan 2014–2022 was to strengthen the adaptive capacity of Finnish society. This objective is still relevant. The conditions for reaching the objective have, however, partly changed. First, cross border consequences of climate change are increasingly emphasised. Second, issues of justice and fairness with respect to the consequences of climate change and adaptation actions are being identified as central. Third, greater weight is given to the overall sustainability of adaptation and climate action. The changing conditions for climate change adaptation should be reflected in the allocation of resources, in improved coordination within the administration and in co-operation between the public and private sector. In addition, knowledge and education should be enhanced, and resources provided for RDI, and for monitoring and evaluation that supports continued improvement of adaptation activities

Adaptation to climate change in Finland : Current state and future prospects

The KOKOSOPU project has aimed at a comprehensive evaluation of the national adaptation policy with particular emphasis on the National Adaptation Plan and international policy development. In addition, future challenges related to societal development have been taken into account. Projections of climate change, Finland’s Climate Act and the strengthened adaptation policy in the EU emphasise the importance of the national adaptation policy. A key objective of the National Adaptation Plan 2014–2022 was to strengthen the adaptive capacity of Finnish society. This objective is still relevant. The conditions for reaching the objective have, however, partly changed. First, cross border consequences of climate change are increasingly emphasised. Second, issues of justice and fairness with respect to the consequences of climate change and adaptation actions are being identified as central. Third, greater weight is given to the overall sustainability of adaptation and climate action. The changing conditions for climate change adaptation should be reflected in the allocation of resources, in improved coordination within the administration and in co-operation between the public and private sector. In addition, knowledge and education should be enhanced, and resources provided for RDI, and for monitoring and evaluation that supports continued improvement of adaptation activities

Ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutumisen ohjauskeinot, kustannukset ja alueelliset ulottuvuudet

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