EVALUATION OF HEDGING IN THE PRESENCE OF CROP INSURANCE AND GOVERNMENT LOAN PROGRAMS

This research evaluates the interaction of new alternative insurance designs, forward pricing tools and the government revenue protection program while assuming a government loan program is in place. A numerical analysis is conducted using a revenue simulation model that incorporates futures prices, basis, and yield variability. Three crop insurance designs at 75 percent of yield guarantee are evaluated. Optimal futures and at-the-money put option hedge ratios are derived for expected utility maximizing of soybean producers. Sensitivity to loan rate levels are examined. Our results suggest that loan programs profoundly alter the optimal producer strategy.Agricultural Finance, Marketing,

IMPLICATIONS OF CROP YIELD AND REVENUE INSURANCE FOR PRODUCER HEDGING

New types of crop insurance have expanded the tools from which crop producers may choose to manage risk. Little is known regarding how these products interact with futures and options. This analysis examines optimal futures and put ratios in the presence of four alternative insurance coverages. An analytical model investigates the comparative statics of the relationship between hedging and insurance. Additional numerical analysis is conducted which incorporates futures price, basis, and yield variability. Yield insurance is found to have a positive effect on hedging levels. Revenue insurance tends to result in slightly lower hedging demand than would occur given the same level of yield insurance coverage.Risk and Uncertainty,

A FLAMINGOS Deep Near Infrared Imaging Survey of the Rosette Complex I: Identification and Distribution of the Embedded Population

We present the results of a deep near-infrared imaging survey of the Rosette Complex. We studied the distribution of young embedded sources using a variation of the Nearest Neighbor Method applied to a carefully selected sample of near-infrared excess (NIRX) stars which trace the latest episode of star formation in the complex. Our analysis confirmed the existence of seven clusters previously detected in the molecular cloud, and identified four more clusters across the complex. We determined that 60% of the young stars in the complex and 86% of the stars within the molecular cloud are contained in clusters, implying that the majority of stars in the Rosette formed in embedded clusters. We compare the sizes, infrared excess fractions and average extinction towards individual clusters to investigate their early evolution and expansion. We found that the average infrared excess fraction of clusters increases as a function of distance from NGC 2244, implying a temporal sequence of star formation across the complex. This sequence appears to be primordial, possibly resulting from the formation and evolution of the molecular cloud and not from the interaction with the HII region.Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journa

Perfil logístico de Colombia

El presente documento ofrece un estudio del perfil logístico de Colombia con la finalidad de dar a conocer el estado de arte de las ciudades, puertos e infraestructura principal para facilitar la toma de decisiones de los empresarios. Para el desarrollo de este trabajo se determinaron a partir de un análisis competitivo del país; las principales ciudades y puertos; logrando establecer un inventario de maquinaria y equipo e infraestructura logística; enmarcados en retos ya establecidos en las políticas públicas.This document provides a profile study logistics Colombia in order to present the state of art of the cities, ports and infrastructure in facilitating the decision making of managers. For the development of this work were determined from a competitive analysis of the country's major cities and ports, making an inventory of machinery and equipment and logistics infrastructure; framed challenges established in public policy

Estimates of Critical Power and Anaerobic Work Capacity from a Single, All-Out Test of Less than 3-Min

The purpose of this study was to determine if Critical Power (CP) and Anaerobic Work Capacity (AWC) could be estimated from a single, all-out test of less than 3-min. Twenty-eight subjects (mean ± SD: age 23.3 ± 3.3 years, body mass 71.6 ± 16 kg) performed an incremental cycle ergometer test to exhaustion to determine peak oxygen consumption rate and heart rate peak. The 3-min all-out test was used to determine the criterion and six estimated values of CP and AWC. The criterion critical power (CP180) and anaerobic work capacity (AWC180) values were determined from the 3-min all-out test and were expressed as 30-s averages (155-180-s). The six estimated CP and AWC values were calculated from 30-s averages at decreasing 10-s intervals from 145 to 170-s (CP170 and AWC170), 135 to 160-s (CP160 and AWC160), 125 to 150-s (CP150 and AWC150), 115 to 140-s (CP140 and AWC140), 105 to 130-s (CP130 and AWC130), and 95 to 120-s (CP120 and AWC120). Mean differences, total error, constant error, standard error of the estimate, and correlations were used to compare the criterion to the estimated CP and AWC values. The results of the present study indicated that 150-s was the shortest test duration that resulted in non-significant differences between the criterion (CP180 and AWC180) and estimated CP (CP150) and AWC (AWC150) values. The subsequent validation analyses showed that there were close agreements for the estimated CP150 and AWC150 versus the criterion (CP180 and AWC180) values. Therefore, the current findings indicated that estimates of CP and AWC were not affected by shortening the test by 30-s. Reducing the length of the test to 2.5 minutes provides a less strenuous, yet valid protocol for estimating CP and AWC

Prospective evaluation of improving fluoroquinolone exposure using centralised therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) in patients with tuberculosis (PERFECT): a study protocol of a prospective multicentre cohort study

Introduction Global multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment success rates remain suboptimal. Highly active WHO group A drugs moxifloxacin and levofloxacin show intraindividual and interindividual pharmacokinetic variability which can cause low drug exposure. Therefore, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of fluoroquinolones is recommended to personalise the drug dosage, aiming to prevent the development of drug resistance and optimise treatment. However, TDM is considered laborious and expensive, and the clinical benefit in MDR-TB has not been extensively studied. This observational multicentre study aims to determine the feasibility of centralised TDM and to investigate the impact of fluoroquinolone TDM on sputum conversion rates in patients with MDR-TB compared with historical controls. Methods and analysis Patients aged 18 years or older with sputum smear and culture-positive pulmonary MDR-TB will be eligible for inclusion. Patients receiving TDM using a limited sampling strategy (t=0 and t=5 hours) will be matched to historical controls without TDM in a 1:2 ratio. Sample analysis and dosing advice will be performed in a centralised laboratory. Centralised TDM will be considered feasible if >80% of the dosing recommendations are returned within 7 days after sampling and 100% within 14 days. The number of patients who are sputum smear and culture-negative after 2 months of treatment will be determined in the prospective TDM group and will be compared with the control group without TDM to determine the impact of TDM. Ethics and dissemination Ethical clearance was obtained by the ethical review committees of the 10 participating hospitals according to local procedures or is pending (online supplementary file 1). Patients will be included after obtaining written informed consent. We aim to publish the study results in a peer-reviewed journal. Trial registration number ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT03409315)

Performance of the First ANTARES Detector Line

In this paper we report on the data recorded with the first Antares detector line. The line was deployed on the 14th of February 2006 and was connected to the readout two weeks later. Environmental data for one and a half years of running are shown. Measurements of atmospheric muons from data taken from selected runs during the first six months of operation are presented. Performance figures in terms of time residuals and angular resolution are given. Finally the angular distribution of atmospheric muons is presented and from this the depth profile of the muon intensity is derived.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figure

p-Adic Mathematical Physics

A brief review of some selected topics in p-adic mathematical physics is presented.Comment: 36 page

Earth Observation to Address Inequities in Post-Flood Recovery

Floods impact communities worldwide, resulting in loss of life, damaged infrastructure and natural assets, and threatened livelihoods. Climate change and urban development in flood-prone areas will continue to worsen flood-related losses, increasing the urgency for effective tools to monitor recovery. Many Earth Observation (EO) applications exist for flood-hazard monitoring and provide insights on location, timing, and extent in near real-time and historically to estimate flood risk. Less attention has been paid to flood recovery, even though differing recovery rates and outcomes can have immediate and enduring distributional effects within communities. EO data are uniquely positioned to monitor post-flood recovery and inform policy on hazard mitigation and adaptation but remain underutilized. We encourage the EO and flood research community to refocus on developing flood recovery applications to address growing risk. Translation of EO insights on flood recovery among flood-affected communities and decision-makers is necessary to address underlying social vulnerabilities that exacerbate inequitable recovery outcomes and advocate for redressing injustices where disparate recovery is observed. We identify an unequivocal need for EO to move beyond mapping flood hazard and exposure toward post-flood recovery monitoring to inform recovery across geographic contexts. This commentary proposes a framework for remote sensing scientists to engage community-based partners to integrate EO with non-EO data to advance flood recovery monitoring, characterize inequitable recovery, redistribute resources to mitigate inequities, and support risk reduction of future floods

Can One Trust Quantum Simulators?

Various fundamental phenomena of strongly-correlated quantum systems such as high-$T_c$ superconductivity, the fractional quantum-Hall effect, and quark confinement are still awaiting a universally accepted explanation. The main obstacle is the computational complexity of solving even the most simplified theoretical models that are designed to capture the relevant quantum correlations of the many-body system of interest. In his seminal 1982 paper [Int. J. Theor. Phys. 21, 467], Richard Feynman suggested that such models might be solved by "simulation" with a new type of computer whose constituent parts are effectively governed by a desired quantum many-body dynamics. Measurements on this engineered machine, now known as a "quantum simulator," would reveal some unknown or difficult to compute properties of a model of interest. We argue that a useful quantum simulator must satisfy four conditions: relevance, controllability, reliability, and efficiency. We review the current state of the art of digital and analog quantum simulators. Whereas so far the majority of the focus, both theoretically and experimentally, has been on controllability of relevant models, we emphasize here the need for a careful analysis of reliability and efficiency in the presence of imperfections. We discuss how disorder and noise can impact these conditions, and illustrate our concerns with novel numerical simulations of a paradigmatic example: a disordered quantum spin chain governed by the Ising model in a transverse magnetic field. We find that disorder can decrease the reliability of an analog quantum simulator of this model, although large errors in local observables are introduced only for strong levels of disorder. We conclude that the answer to the question "Can we trust quantum simulators?" is... to some extent.Comment: 20 pages. Minor changes with respect to version 2 (some additional explanations, added references...