Statistical foundations of ecological rationality

If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of this rebuilding process is optimality. Once we view optimality as a formal implication of quantified uncertainty rather than an ecologically meaningful objective, the rationality question shifts from being axiomatic/probabilistic in nature to being algorithmic/predictive in nature. These distinct views on rationality mirror fundamental and long-standing divisions in statistics

The bias bias

AbstractIn marketing and finance, surprisingly simple models sometimes predict more accurately than more complex, sophisticated models. Here, we address the question of when and why simple models succeed — or fail — by framing the forecasting problem in terms of the bias–variance dilemma. Controllable error in forecasting consists of two components, the “bias” and the “variance”. We argue that the benefits of simplicity are often overlooked because of a pervasive “bias bias”: the importance of the bias component of prediction error is inflated, and the variance component of prediction error, which reflects an oversensitivity of a model to different samples from the same population, is neglected. Using the study of cognitive heuristics, we discuss how to reduce variance by ignoring weights, attributes, and dependencies between attributes, and thus make better decisions. Bias and variance, we argue, offer a more insightful perspective on the benefits of simplicity than Occam’'s razor

Data analysis / BEBR No. 540

Includes bibliographical references."In any comprehensive research project, there are essentially five steps. First, one starts with a literature review with regard to a particular research question. Second, one seeks to develop a theory. Third, the research question is finalized, frequently in the form of a hypothesis to be tested. Fourth, data are collected. Fifth, the subject matter of this paper, the data are analyzed in order to come to a resolution of the research question. There are two general approaches to analyzing research data. If the data were gathered concerning a 'research question,' a description of the data may be sufficient. However, if the data were gathered to accept or reject a formal hypothesis, statistical analysis is usually in order. This paper briefly surveys the principal data analysis methodologies that are available.

The high kinetic stability of a G-quadruplex limits hnRNP F qRRM3 binding to G-tract RNA

The RNA binding protein heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein (hnRNP) F is involved in telomeres maintenance and pre-mRNA processing, such as alternative splicing and polyadenylation. It specifically recognizes RNA containing three consecutive guanines (G-tracts) that have the potential to assemble into G-quadruplexes. We have proposed recently that hnRNP F could regulate alternative splicing by remodeling RNA structures, such as G-quadruplexes. However, the exact mechanism of hnRNP F binding to such RNA sequences remains unknown. Here, we have studied the binding of the third RNA binding domain of hnRNP F [quasi-RNA recognition motif 3 (qRRM3)] to G-tract RNA using isothermal titration calorimetry, circular dichroism and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Our results show that qRRM3 binds specifically exclusively to single-stranded G-tracts (ssRNA), in contrast to previous reports stating that the G-quadruplex was recognized as well. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the pre-existent ssRNA/G-quadruplex equilibrium slows down the formation of the protein-ssRNA complex. Based on in vitro transcription assays, we show that the rate of the protein-RNA complex formation is faster than that of the G-quadruplex. We propose a model according to which hnRNP F could bind RNA co-transcriptionally and prevents G-quadruplex formatio

Neurodevelopmental Outcomes at 2 and 3.5 Years for Very Preterm Babies Enrolled in a Randomized Trial of Milking the Umbilical Cord versus Delayed Cord Clamping

Background: Guidelines published by the International Liaison Committee for Resuscitation and by the World Health Organization recommend delaying cord clamping at birth as part of routine care for infants. Objective: To study the use of milking of the cord 4 times as an alternative to enhance the redistribution of placental blood into the baby. Methods: This is a prospective cohort study of neurodevelopmental assessment by the Bayley III method of very preterm infants who had participated in a trial of delayed cord clamping versus cord milking at birth that was conducted in a neonatal tertiary care hospital. The primary outcomes were differences in cognitive, motor and language development at 2 and 3.5 years. Two-tailed analyses were performed with the χ2 test, Fisher's exact test, t test, Mann-Whitney U test and ANCOVA. Results: Out of the 58 infants enrolled in the original study, 39 infants (67%) were assessed at 2 years and 29 (50%) at 3.5 years of age. Neurodevelopmental outcomes at 2 and 3.5 years did not significantly differ between the two groups for the three Bayley III composite scores. At 3.5 years there was a trend towards higher scores for girls in the language composite scores (girls: mean = 121.6, SD = 15.22; boys: mean = 101.07, SD = 19.84) and on the motor scale (girls: mean = 124.60, SD = 18.15; boys: mean = 97.86, SD = 17.23). Conclusions: In this small number of participants followed up at 2 and 3.5 years of age, milking of the cord 4 times did not have any long-term adverse effect on neurodevelopmental outcome, suggesting that cord milking could be used as an alternative to delayed cord clamping

Poison sedge can kill stock

POISON SEDGE was first suspected of being toxic to livestock in Western Australia nearly 80 years ago. Sudden deaths of sheep grazing areas on which poison sedge grew have been reported from many regions from Geraldton to Scott River. This article reports a case of poisoning in the field, and the experimental reproduction of poison sedge toxicity in pen-fed sheep

Oral rivaroxaban versus standard therapy for the treatment of symptomatic venous thromboembolism : a pooled analysis of the EINSTEIN-DVT and PE randomized studies

Background: Standard treatment for venous thromboembolism (VTE) consists of a heparin combined with vitamin K antagonists. Direct oral anticoagulants have been investigated for acute and extended treatment of symptomatic VTE; their use could avoid parenteral treatment and/or laboratory monitoring of anticoagulant effects. Methods: A prespecified pooled analysis of the EINSTEIN-DVT and EINSTEIN-PE studies compared the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban (15 mg twice-daily for 21 days, followed by 20 mg once-daily) with standard-therapy (enoxaparin 1.0 mg/kg twice-daily and warfarin or acenocoumarol). Patients were treated for 3, 6, or 12 months and followed for suspected recurrent VTE and bleeding. The prespecified noninferiority margin was 1.75. Results: 8282 patients were enrolled. 4151 received rivaroxaban and 4131 received standard-therapy. The primary efficacy outcome occurred in 86 rivaroxaban-treated patients (2.1%) compared with 95 (2.3%) standard-therapy-treated patients (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-1.19; pnoninferiority<0.001). Major bleeding was observed in 40 (1.0%) and 72 (1.7%) patients in the rivaroxaban and standard-therapy groups, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.37-0.79; p=0.002). In key subgroups, including fragile patients, cancer patients, patients presenting with large clots and those with a history of recurrent VTE, the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban was similar compared with standard-therapy. Conclusion: The single-drug approach with rivaroxaban resulted in similar efficacy to standard-therapy and was associated with a significantly lower rate of major bleeding. Efficacy and safety results were consistent among key patient subgroups

Temporal structure/function variation in cultured differentiated human nasal epithelium associated with acute single exposure to tobacco smoke or E-cigarette vapor

Mucociliary clearance sustains a baseline functionality and an “on demand” capability to upregulate clearance upon irritant exposure involving mucus hypersecretion and accelerated ciliary beat frequency (CBF) modulated by nitric oxide (NO). This study characterized these elements as well as cellular and exogenous NO concentrations subsequent to a single exposure to tobacco smoke (TS) or e-cigarette vapor (EV) on cultured human airway epithelium

Educating sanitation professionals: moving from STEM to specialist training in higher education in Malawi

Achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires effective changes in multiple sectors including education, economics, and health. Malawi faces challenges in attaining the SDGs in general, and specifically in the sanitation sector. This paper aims to describe the existing landscape within public universities in Malawi to build a framework for training a cadre of locally trained experts. This is achieved by reviewing science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) degree programmes and assessing the extent of inclusion of sanitation education. The historical compartmentalization of academic programmes has resulted in few programmes to build on. Deliberate investment is needed to build from the current STEM higher education landscape to an effective framework for training sanitation experts, especially female experts. For low-income countries such as Malawi, a cadre of ~17,600 locally trained sanitation experts may be needed, for which the current higher education landscape is not sufficient. Using the Centre of Excellence in Water and Sanitation at Mzuzu University in Malawi as a case study, this paper provides a model of sanitation education in low-income countries that: 1) provides an effective complementary contribution to delivering sanitation education; 2) links to overall SDGs, national policy, university goals, and localized needs; and 3) engages students, faculty, and communities in local research