Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing macroeconomic variability is a decline in the volatility of other structural shocks (demand and supply). A change to a more responsive monetary policy regime also played a role

Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing macroeconomic variability is a decline in the volatility of other structural shocks (demand and supply). A change to a more responsive monetary policy regime also played a role

Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies

We analyse fiscal policy in resource-rich economies using a novel Bayesian regime-switching panel model. The identified regimes capture pro- or countercyclical fiscal behaviour, while the switches between the regimes have the interpretation of changes in fiscal policy. Applying the model to sixteen oil-producing economies, we show that fiscal policy has alternated between a procyclical and countercyclical regime multiple times over the sample. Furthermore, we find fiscal policy to be the most volatile in the procyclical regime and that the probability of being in the procyclical regime is higher for OPEC countries rather than non OPEC countries. We also show that following either an increase or decrease in oil revenues, the growth in government expenditure mostly increases, suggesting there is an upward bias in expenditures in oil-producing countries. These are new findings in the literature

Reaching adulthood with Hirschsprung's disease : Patient experiences and recommendations for transitional care

Background/Purpose: The need for transitional care has gained increased focus in the treatment of patients with congenital colorectal disorders. We aimed to acquire in-depth knowledge about the experiences of adult patients with Hirschsprung's disease (HD) and their suggestions for transitional care. Methods: Binational study applying gender equal focus group interviews (FGI). Results: Seventeen (9 men) of 52 invited patients with median age 29 (19–43) years participated. Three themes evolved from the FGI. “Scarred body and soul” describes the somatic and psychosocial challenges the patients experienced and “limited health literacy on HD” refers to the patients' lack of HD knowledge. “Absent transition” depicts missing transitional care and the patients' inability to find adult HD specialists. The adult HD patients strongly recommended transitional care from early teens with focus on information about HD and establishment of a peer-to-peer program. They also emphasized the possibility of being referred to a pelvic floor center. Conclusions: HD negatively influences patients' somatic and psychosocial health in childhood, adolescence and adulthood. Adult HD patients strongly recommend transitional care from early teens and the possibility for referral to a center working with pelvic floor dysfunctions. Level of evidence: IV Type of research: Clinica

Oil revenues for public investment in Africa: targeting urban or rural areas?

Oil revenue, Public investment, Productivity, Africa, Agricultural development, Poverty, H4, O5, Q3,