MOEDA E CRÉDITO NA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA: UM MODELO COM VETORES DE CORREÇÃO DE ERROS

This article searches for the relation between money, credit and aggregated product in the Brazilian experience during the 1980/1989 period. A key element of the study is the estiamtion of Errors Correction Vectors Model which allows the identification of relations between variables in the short and long terms, in opposition to conventional methodologies which analyze only shortterm relations. The text starts with the stocastic properties of the different series, paying special attention to its integration orders. Then de model is estimaded through the method of maximuin similarity outlined by Johansen (1989) and Johansen/Juselius (1990). At the end, the estimation is used for analyzing the time pattern of impulses and answers between the variables. A relevant outcome is that changes of product have been caused mainly by monetary shocks while the credit shorks exerted a smaller influence.Este artigo investiga a relação entre a moeda, o crédito e o produto agregado, à luz da experiência brasileira no período 1980/1989. Um elemento essencial do estudo é a estimação de um modelo com Vetores de Correção de Erros (VEC), o que permite a identificação das relações entre as variáveis no curto e no longo prazo, ao contrário das metodologias convencionais que analisam exclusivamente as relações no curto prazo. O texto inicia com um estudo das propriedades estocásticas das diferentes séries, prestando atenção particular às suas ordens de integração. Posteriormente, o modelo é estimado através do método de máxima verossimilhança proposto por Johansen (1989) e Johansen & Juselius (1990) Finalmente, a estimativa é utilizada para analisar o padrão temporal de impulsos e respostas entre as variáveis Um resultado relevante é o de que as flutuações do produto têm sido causadas predominantemente por choques monetários, com os choques de caráter creditício tendo uma importância menor

Coordinación de las políticas fiscales y ambientales en la República Dominicana

Incluye BibliografíaEl presente estudio tiene por objetivo contribuir a la identificación de oportunidades para elevar la efectividad de las políticas ambientales desde el punto de vista de los requerimientos de coordinación interinstitucionales y de los instrumentos de política al alcance de las autoridades, a fin de minimizar los costos económicos y sociales en que incurre la sociedad para alcanzar sus metas de calidad ambiental. Se argumenta que desde la aprobación de la Ley General de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales en el 2000, el país ha avanzado en la creación de espacios formales e informales de coordinación de políticas para abordar problemas ambientales específicos; no obstante, aún es necesario avanzar en el desarrollo de mecanismos de coordinación que permitan articular y alcanzar objetivos más generales de desarrollo económico y social y sostenibilidad ambiental. En el ámbito de los instrumentos de política ambiental, existe el potencial para la conformación de un paradigma regulatorio de la gestión ambiental donde los instrumentos económicos jueguen un rol más importante

HE-LHC: The High-Energy Large Hadron Collider – Future Circular Collider Conceptual Design Report Volume 4

In response to the 2013 Update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics (EPPSU), the Future Circular Collider (FCC) study was launched as a world-wide international collaboration hosted by CERN. The FCC study covered an energy-frontier hadron collider (FCC-hh), a highest-luminosity high-energy lepton collider (FCC-ee), the corresponding 100 km tunnel infrastructure, as well as the physics opportunities of these two colliders, and a high-energy LHC, based on FCC-hh technology. This document constitutes the third volume of the FCC Conceptual Design Report, devoted to the hadron collider FCC-hh. It summarizes the FCC-hh physics discovery opportunities, presents the FCC-hh accelerator design, performance reach, and staged operation plan, discusses the underlying technologies, the civil engineering and technical infrastructure, and also sketches a possible implementation. Combining ingredients from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the high-luminosity LHC upgrade and adding novel technologies and approaches, the FCC-hh design aims at significantly extending the energy frontier to 100 TeV. Its unprecedented centre-of-mass collision energy will make the FCC-hh a unique instrument to explore physics beyond the Standard Model, offering great direct sensitivity to new physics and discoveries

Immunoglobulin, glucocorticoid, or combination therapy for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children: a propensity-weighted cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), a hyperinflammatory condition associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, has emerged as a serious illness in children worldwide. Immunoglobulin or glucocorticoids, or both, are currently recommended treatments. METHODS: The Best Available Treatment Study evaluated immunomodulatory treatments for MIS-C in an international observational cohort. Analysis of the first 614 patients was previously reported. In this propensity-weighted cohort study, clinical and outcome data from children with suspected or proven MIS-C were collected onto a web-based Research Electronic Data Capture database. After excluding neonates and incomplete or duplicate records, inverse probability weighting was used to compare primary treatments with intravenous immunoglobulin, intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, or glucocorticoids alone, using intravenous immunoglobulin as the reference treatment. Primary outcomes were a composite of inotropic or ventilator support from the second day after treatment initiation, or death, and time to improvement on an ordinal clinical severity scale. Secondary outcomes included treatment escalation, clinical deterioration, fever, and coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN69546370. FINDINGS: We enrolled 2101 children (aged 0 months to 19 years) with clinically diagnosed MIS-C from 39 countries between June 14, 2020, and April 25, 2022, and, following exclusions, 2009 patients were included for analysis (median age 8·0 years [IQR 4·2-11·4], 1191 [59·3%] male and 818 [40·7%] female, and 825 [41·1%] White). 680 (33·8%) patients received primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin, 698 (34·7%) with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, 487 (24·2%) with glucocorticoids alone; 59 (2·9%) patients received other combinations, including biologicals, and 85 (4·2%) patients received no immunomodulators. There were no significant differences between treatments for primary outcomes for the 1586 patients with complete baseline and outcome data that were considered for primary analysis. Adjusted odds ratios for ventilation, inotropic support, or death were 1·09 (95% CI 0·75-1·58; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids and 0·93 (0·58-1·47; corrected p value=1·00) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Adjusted average hazard ratios for time to improvement were 1·04 (95% CI 0·91-1·20; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, and 0·84 (0·70-1·00; corrected p value=0·22) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Treatment escalation was less frequent for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids (OR 0·15 [95% CI 0·11-0·20]; p<0·0001) and glucocorticoids alone (0·68 [0·50-0·93]; p=0·014) versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Persistent fever (from day 2 onward) was less common with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids compared with either intravenous immunoglobulin alone (OR 0·50 [95% CI 0·38-0·67]; p<0·0001) or glucocorticoids alone (0·63 [0·45-0·88]; p=0·0058). Coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution did not differ significantly between treatment groups. INTERPRETATION: Recovery rates, including occurrence and resolution of coronary artery aneurysms, were similar for primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin when compared to glucocorticoids or intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids. Initial treatment with glucocorticoids appears to be a safe alternative to immunoglobulin or combined therapy, and might be advantageous in view of the cost and limited availability of intravenous immunoglobulin in many countries. FUNDING: Imperial College London, the European Union's Horizon 2020, Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Foundation, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and National Institutes of Health

Crecimiento económico, acumulación de factores y productividad en la República Dominicana

Este artículo analiza el proceso de crecimiento económico de la República Dominicana durante el período 1950-2000. Durante ese período el país mantuvo un ritmo de crecimiento relativamente estable en el contexto de países latinoamericanos. La descomposición de las fuentes de crecimiento del producto muestran que el crecimiento ha dependido predominantemente de la acumulación de capital físico y que el crecimiento de la productividad tendió a ser positivo, pero bajo. Se argumenta además que los subperíodos de mayor crecimiento han coincidido con la implementación de cambios en el marco institucional. Mediante la estimación de un modelo econométrico de cointegración donde el comportamiento del producto y los factores productivos depende del grado de apertura y de una variable que aproxima la magnitud y profundidad de los cambios institucionales, se muestra que tanto la apertura económica como los ajustes institucionales implementados en el país durante el período 1950-2000 han impactado positivamente el ritmo de crecimiento

The road to a fiscal covenant: a critical look at the Dominican experience

Includes bibliograph

Niveles de escolaridad y sus factores determinantes: una cuantificación econométrica

Este artículo analiza cuantitativamente los factores que determinan el nivel de escolaridad alcanzado por un individuo en el contexto dominicano. El estudio se basa en la estimación de un modelo de selección multinomial ordenado, el cual compara la incidencia de tres tipos de variables: características propias del individuo, características socioeconómicas del hogar al cual pertenece y factores geográficos. Específicamente, los resultados indican la magnitud en que el género de un individuo, su parentesco con el jefe(a) del hogar donde vive, las responsabilidades en el sostenimiento familiar, la zona de residencia y el estrato socioeconómico al cual pertenece influyen sobre la probabilidad de alcanzar determinados niveles de escolaridad. Un rasgo distintivo del abordaje adoptado es que aísla de forma precisa el efecto de cada elemento individual, lo que no es el caso en los análisis previos basados en estadística descriptiva. Por último, el artículo aborda de forma tangencial la relación entre género, educación e ingreso, apelando al concepto de dominancia estocástica para analizar la existencia de discriminación de género en el mercado laboral dominicano