An objective global climatology of polar lows based on reanalysis data

Here an objective global climatology of polar lows has been developed. In order to obtain objective detection criteria the efficacy of several parameters for separating polar lows from other cyclones has been investigated. This parameter efficacy has been compared for polar lows subjectively identified by experts and for all kind of extra-tropical cyclones. The comparison is based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 - 2016 and the higher resolution Arctic System Reanalysis from 2000 - 2012. The parameters found to be the most effective at separating polar lows from all other kinds of synoptic and meso-scale cyclones were the difference between the mean sea-level pressure of the low and its surroundings, the difference in the potential temperature between the sea surface and the 500 hPa level, and the tropopause wind poleward of the system. Other parameters often used for distinguishing, such as the 10m wind speed and the temperature difference between the sea surface and the 700 hPa level were found to be less effective. Investigation of the climatologies reveals that PLs occur in all maritime basins at high latitudes, but with high density in the vicinity of the sea-ice edge and coastal zones. The regions showing the highest degree of polar-low activity are the Denmark Strait and the Nordic Seas. Especially the most intense polar lows occur in these two regions. In the North Atlantic and Pacific the main polar-low season ranges from November to March. In the Southern Hemisphere polar lows are mainly detected between 50 - 65'S from April to October, indicating that this hemisphere compared to its northern counterpart has a two months longer, but less intense, polar-low season. No significant hemispheric long-term trends are observed, although some regions, such as the Denmark Strait and the Nordic Sea experience significant downward and upward trends in polar lows, respectively, over the last decades. For intense polar lows a significant decaying trend has been observed for the northern hemisphere

Emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance in Escherichia coli causing bloodstream infections in Norway in 2002-17: a nationwide, longitudinal, microbial population genomic study.

BACKGROUND: The clonal diversity underpinning trends in multidrug resistant Escherichia coli causing bloodstream infections remains uncertain. We aimed to determine the contribution of individual clones to resistance over time, using large-scale genomics-based molecular epidemiology. METHODS: This was a longitudinal, E coli population, genomic, cohort study that sampled isolates from 22 512 E coli bloodstream infections included in the Norwegian surveillance programme on resistant microbes (NORM) from 2002 to 2017. 15 of 22 laboratories were able to share their isolates, and the first 22·5% of isolates from each year were requested. We used whole genome sequencing to infer the population structure (PopPUNK), and we investigated the clade composition of the dominant multidrug resistant clonal complex (CC)131 using genetic markers previously reported for sequence type (ST)131, effective population size (BEAST), and presence of determinants of antimicrobial resistance (ARIBA, PointFinder, and ResFinder databases) over time. We compared these features between the 2002-10 and 2011-17 time periods. We also compared our results with those of a longitudinal study from the UK done between 2001 and 2011. FINDINGS: Of the 3500 isolates requested from the participating laboratories, 3397 (97·1%) were received, of which 3254 (95·8%) were successfully sequenced and included in the analysis. A significant increase in the number of multidrug resistant CC131 isolates from 71 (5·6%) of 1277 in 2002-10 to 207 (10·5%) of 1977 in 2011-17 (p<0·0001), was the largest clonal expansion. CC131 was the most common clone in extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-positive isolates (75 [58·6%] of 128) and fluoroquinolone non-susceptible isolates (148 [39·2%] of 378). Within CC131, clade A increased in prevalence from 2002, whereas the global multidrug resistant clade C2 was not observed until 2007. Multiple de-novo acquisitions of both blaCTX-M ESBL-encoding genes in clades A and C1 and gain of phenotypic fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility across the clade A phylogeny were observed. We estimated that exponential increases in the effective population sizes of clades A, C1, and C2 occurred in the mid-2000s, and in clade B a decade earlier. The rate of increase in the estimated effective population size of clade A (Ne=3147) was nearly ten-times that of C2 (Ne=345), with clade A over-represented in Norwegian CC131 isolates (75 [27·0%] of 278) compared with the UK study (8 [5·4%] of 147 isolates). INTERPRETATION: The early and sustained establishment of predominantly antimicrobial susceptible CC131 clade A isolates, relative to multidrug resistant clade C2 isolates, suggests that resistance is not necessary for clonal success. However, even in the low antibiotic use setting of Norway, resistance to important antimicrobial classes has rapidly been selected for in CC131 clade A isolates. This study shows the importance of genomic surveillance in uncovering the complex ecology underlying multidrug resistance dissemination and competition, which have implications for the design of strategies and interventions to control the spread of high-risk multidrug resistant clones. FUNDING: Trond Mohn Foundation, European Research Council, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, and the Wellcome Trust

Polar Low tracks in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea from 1999 until 2019

List of Polar Low (PL) events over the Nordic seas and their associated tracking for the period November 1999 until March 2018 using AVHRR imagery

A well-observed polar low analysed with a regional and a global weather-prediction model

The capability of a regional (AROME‐Arctic) and a global (ECMWF HRES) weather‐prediction model are compared for simulating a well‐observed polar low (PL). This PL developed on 3–4 March 2008 and was measured by dropsondes released from three flights during the IPY‐THORPEX campaign. Validation against these measurements reveals that both models simulate the PL reasonably well. AROME‐Arctic appears to represent the cloud structures and the high local variability more realistically. The high local variability causes standard error statistics to be similar for AROME‐Arctic and ECMWF HRES. A spatial verification technique reveals that AROME‐Arctic has improved skills at small scales for extreme values. However, the error growth of the forecast, especially in the location of the PL, is faster in AROME‐Arctic than in ECMWF HRES. This is likely associated with larger convection‐induced perturbations in the former than the latter model. Additionally, the PL development is analysed. This PL has two stages, an initial baroclinic and a convective mature stage. Sensible heat flux and condensational heat release both contribute to strengthen the initial baroclinic environment. In the mature stage, latent heat release appears to maintain the system. At least two conditions must be met for this stage to develop: (a) the sensible heat flux sufficiently destabilises the local environment around the PL, and (b) sufficient moisture is available for condensational heat release. More than half of the condensed moisture within the system originates from the surroundings. The propagation of the PL is “pulled” towards the area of strongest condensational heating. Finally, the sensitivity of the PL to the sea‐surface temperature is analysed. The maximum near‐surface wind speed connected to the system increases by 1–2 m·s−1 per K of surface warming and a second centre develops in cases of highly increased temperature

Observation of polar lows by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit: potential and limitations

International audienceThe potential of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations for the depiction and tracking of intense high-latitude mesoscale maritime weather systems, called polar lows, is explored. Since a variety of mechanisms are important for their development and maintenance, this investigation is based on three polar low cases of different types. The AMSU-B channels at 183 GHz are able to locate convective polar lows (PL) even in their incipient stage, at a time when there is considerable uncertainty as to the nature of the cloud structures seen in the visible or infrared imagery. This detection is based on temperature depression due to scattering by hydrometeors, as confirmed by comparison with radar data. These same channels will, however, fail to unambiguously detect weakly convective and mainly baroclinic PL. The AMSU-A channels help documenting the large-scale environment in which PL develop. Channel 5 clearly shows the cold air outbreaks associated with these developments, whereas the difference between channels 7 and 5 can be used to detect and locate positive upper-level potential vorticity anomalies. Because of the high temporal availability of AMSU observations and despite some limitations pointed out in this study, these results are relevant for PL forecasting and monitoring

Observation of polar lows by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit: potential and limitations

International audienceThe potential of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations for the depiction and tracking of intense high-latitude mesoscale maritime weather systems, called polar lows, is explored. Since a variety of mechanisms are important for their development and maintenance, this investigation is based on three polar low cases of different types. The AMSU-B channels at 183 GHz are able to locate convective polar lows (PL) even in their incipient stage, at a time when there is considerable uncertainty as to the nature of the cloud structures seen in the visible or infrared imagery. This detection is based on temperature depression due to scattering by hydrometeors, as confirmed by comparison with radar data. These same channels will, however, fail to unambiguously detect weakly convective and mainly baroclinic PL. The AMSU-A channels help documenting the large-scale environment in which PL develop. Channel 5 clearly shows the cold air outbreaks associated with these developments, whereas the difference between channels 7 and 5 can be used to detect and locate positive upper-level potential vorticity anomalies. Because of the high temporal availability of AMSU observations and despite some limitations pointed out in this study, these results are relevant for PL forecasting and monitoring

Der Einfluss der frühen operativen Versorgung von Wirbelsäulenverletzung bei polytraumatisierten Patienten - eine single center-Studie

Presentation at the European Geoscience Union General Assembly conference, Vienna, Austria, 07.04.19 - 12.04.19. (https://www.egu2019.eu/. </a

Polar low tracks over the Nordic Seas: a 14-winter climatic analysis

International audienceTo develop a 14-winter (October–April; 1999–2013) climatic description of polar low (PL) occurrence for the Nordic Seas, systems have been tracked using images acquired from the Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Also, the dominant PL characteristics – their temporal and spatial distributions, size, lifespan, distance travelled, speed of propagation and directions – have been determined. On average, 14 PL events occur per winter but there is strong inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability. Although systems may form and travel over the whole Nordic Seas, their genesis is enhanced in areas characterised by warm oceanic currents. At the start of the season (October–November), systems mainly form over the Greenland and Norwegian Seas, but further into winter they form increasingly over the Barents Sea. In connection with recent low-ice winters, new areas of PL formation are evident, particularly to the west of Spitsbergen and in the Barents Sea. PL speeds of propagation range between 5 and 13 m/s but are observed to be highly variable among cases and even during the lifespan of individual PLs. To a considerable extent, the direction of movement is controlled by the large-scale flow in the lowest atmospheric layers, but we also observed cyclonic co-rotation of some pairs of PLs due to their influence on the ambient flow. Although these generally move southward or southeastward, a substantial number of PLs have westward and even northward tracks. PLs in the western part of the region average larger than their eastern counterparts. This study also highlights that PLs characteristics and tracks differ according to weather regimes