Discontinuities in the late 1960's in different atmospheric data products

An analysis of the onset and spatial extent of discontinuities in the late 1960's in different atmospheric data products is performed. Discontinuities are found in both the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses in various surface variables including sea level pressure (SLP) in both data sets over Africa, in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis also over Asia and in the ERA-40 reanalysis also over South America, and precipitation in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis over North Africa. Discontinuities are also found in 2 m air temperature in both reanalyses. The discontinuities in SLP extend into the lower troposphere. The main cause of these discontinuities appears to be missing or limited synoptic data prior to the late 1960's

Partially coupled spin-up of the MPI-ESM: implementation and first results

Large-scale fully coupled Earth system models (ESMs) are usually applied in climate projections like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports. In these models internal variability is often within the correct order of magnitude compared with the observed climate, but due to internal variability and arbitrary initial conditions they are not able to reproduce the observed timing of climate events or shifts as for instance observed in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Additional information about the real climate history is necessary to constrain ESMs; not only to emulate the past climate, but also to introduce a potential forecast skill into these models through a proper initialisation. We attempt to do this by extending the fully coupled climate model Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) using a partial coupling technique (Modini-MPI-ESM). This method is implemented by adding reanalysis wind-field anomalies to the MPI-ESM's inherent climatological wind field when computing the surface wind stress that is used to drive the ocean and sea ice model. Using anomalies instead of the full wind field reduces potential model drifts, because of different mean climate states of the unconstrained MPI-ESM and the partially coupled Modini-MPI-ESM, that could arise if total observed wind stress was used. We apply two different reanalysis wind products (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEPcsfr) and ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI)) and analyse the skill of Modini-MPI-ESM with respect to several observed oceanic, atmospheric, and sea ice indices. We demonstrate that Modini-MPI-ESM has a significant skill over the time period 1980–2013 in reproducing historical climate fluctuations, indicating the potential of the method for initialising seasonal to decadal forecasts. Additionally, our comparison of the results achieved with the two reanalysis wind products NCEPcsfr and ERAI indicates that in general applying NCEPcsfr results in a better reconstruction of climate variability since 1980

A simple diagnostic based on sea surface height with an application to central Pacific ENSO

We use output from a freely running NEMO model simulation for the equatorial Pacific to investigate the utility of linearly removing the local influence of vertical displacements of the thermocline from variations in sea surface height. We show that the resulting time series of residual sea surface height, denoted ηnlti, measures variations in near-surface heat content that are independent of the local vertical displacement of the thermocline and can arise from horizontal advection, surface heat flux, and diapycnal mixing processes. We find that the variance of ηnlti and its correlation with sea surface temperature are focused on the Niño4 region. Furthermore, ηnlti averaged over the Niño4 region is highly correlated with indices of central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (CP ENSO), and its variance in 21-year running windows shows a strong upward trend over the past 50 years, corresponding to the emergence of CP ENSO following the 1976/77 climate shift. We show that ηnlti can be estimated from observations, using satellite altimeter data and a linear multi-mode model. The time series of ηnlti, especially when estimated using the linear model, show pronounced westward propagation in the western equatorial Pacific, arguing for an important role for zonal advective feedback in the dynamics of CP ENSO, in particular for cold events. We also present evidence that the role of the thermocline displacement in influencing sea surface height increased strongly after 2000 in the eastern part of the Niño4 region, at a time when CP ENSO was particularly active. Finally, the diagnostic is easy to compute and can be easily applied to mooring data or coupled climate models.</p

Current and Oxygen Variability in the Tropical North East Atlantic

The tropical North East Atlantic (TNEA) is characterized by an oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) that is located at intermediate depth (300m – 700m) and latitudinally spreads between the oxygen-rich equatorial Atlantic and the Cape Verde Frontal Zone at about 20°N. Recent studies have shown that local oxygen fluctuations and the associated ventilation of the TNEA OMZ are mainly caused by diapycnal mixing and mesoscale eddies. Zonal currents additionally ventilate the TNEA by advecting oxygen-rich water from the well-ventilated western boundary eastwards. The spatial and temporal variability of these zonal currents is thought to contribute to the oxygen variability in this regime. An intense measurement program along 23°W cutting through the TNEA OMZ has been executed during recent years. Moored observations and repeat ship sections were performed with CTD/O2 (conductivity, temperature, depth, oxygen) and current measurements. Here, we analyze the spatial and temporal variability of the zonal currents in the TNEA at intermediate depths and discuss their respective role for the spatial and temporal oxygen variability as well as the ventilation of the OMZ. Particularly, the observed annual cycle of the North Equatorial Undercurrent (NEUC) at 5°N, which is several cm/s at intermediate depth, causes phase-shifted (zonal velocity leading oxygen) annual oxygen fluctuations in a range of about 10 µmol/kg. In general, time-varying zonal currents advect oxygen eastwards that is meridionally redistributed by mesoscale eddies. The overall effect of those currents for the ventilation of the OMZ is discussed

Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

For certain, but realizable, states of the thermohaline and wind driven circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, we demonstrate the possibility of making statements regarding the likely range of values to be taken by the annual average of the NAO-index on time scales out to a decade. Given that the North Atlantic is currently in such a predictable state, a simple surrogate model yields a prediction that the NAO index is more likely to be positive than negative for the next couple of years, followed by several years in which the NAO index is more likely to be negative

Factors influencing the meridional width of the equatorial deep jets

Equatorial deep jets (EDJs) are vertically alternating, stacked zonal currents that flow along the Equator in all three ocean basins at intermediate depth. Their structure can be described quite well by the sum of high-baroclinic-mode equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves. However, the EDJ meridional width is larger by a factor of 1.5 than inviscid theory predicts for such waves. Here, we use a set of idealised model configurations representing the Atlantic Ocean to investigate the contributions of different processes to the enhanced EDJ width. Corroborated by the analysis of shipboard velocity sections, we show that widening of the EDJs by momentum loss due to irreversible mixing or other processes contributes more to their enhanced time mean width than averaging over meandering of the jets. Most of the widening due to meandering can be attributed to the strength of intraseasonal variability in the jets' depth range, suggesting that the jets are meridionally advected by intraseasonal waves. A slightly weaker connection to intraseasonal variability is found for the EDJ widening by momentum loss. These results enhance our understanding of the dynamics of the EDJs and, more generally, of equatorial waves in the deep ocean.</p

Three‐Dimensional Numerical Simulations of Internal Tides in the Angolan Upwelling Region

In austral winter, biological productivity at the Angolan shelf reaches its maximum. The alongshore winds, however, reach their seasonal minimum suggesting that processes other than local wind‐driven upwelling contribute to near‐coastal cooling and upward nutrient supply, one possibility being mixing induced by internal tides (ITs). Here, we apply a three‐dimensional ocean model to simulate the generation, propagation, and dissipation of ITs at the Angolan continental slope and shelf. Model results are validated against moored acoustic Doppler current profiler and other observations. Simulated ITs are mainly generated in regions with a critical/supercritical slope typically between the 200‐ and 500‐m isobaths. Mixing induced by ITs is found to be strongest close to the coast and gradually decreases offshore thereby contributing to the establishment of cross‐shore temperature gradients. The available seasonal coverage of hydrographic data is used to design simulations to investigate the influence of seasonally varying stratification characterized by low stratification in austral winter and high stratification in austral summer. The results show that IT characteristics, such as their wavelengths, sea surface convergence patterns, and baroclinic structure, have substantial seasonal variations and additionally strong spatial inhomogeneities. However, seasonal variations in the spatially averaged generation, onshore flux, and dissipation of IT energy are weak. By evaluating the change of potential energy, it is shown, nevertheless, that mixing due to ITs is more effective during austral winter. We argue that this is because the weaker background stratification in austral winter than in austral summer acts as a preconditioning for IT mixing

Determining North Atlantic meridional transport variability from pressure on the western boundary: a model investigation.

In this paper we investigate the possibility of determining North Atlantic meridional transport variability using pressure on the western boundary, focusing on the 42degN latitude of the Halifax WAVE array. We start by reviewing the theoretical foundations of this approach. Next we present results from a model analysis, both statistical and dynamic, that demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. We consider how well we can quantify the meridional transport variability at 42degN given complete knowledge of bottom pressure across the basin, and to what degree this quantification is degraded by first ignoring the effect of intervening topography, and then by using only bottom pressure on the western boundary. We find that for periods of greater than one year we can recover more than 90% of the variability of the main overturning cell at 42degN using only the western boundary pressure, provided we remove the depth-average boundary pressure signal. This signal arises from a basin mode of bottom pressure variability, which has power at all timescales, but that does not in truth have a meridional transport signal associated with it, and from the geostrophic depth-independent compensation of the Ekman transport. An additional benefit of the removal of the depth-average pressure is that this high-frequency Ekman signal, which is essentially noise as far as monitoring the MOC for climatically important changes is concerned, is clearly separated from other modes

Sensitivity of Southern Ocean overturning to wind stress changes:Role of surface restoring time scales

The influence of different surface restoring time scales on the response of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation to wind stress changes is investigated using an idealised channel model. Regardless of the restoring time scales chosen, the eddy-induced meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is found to compensate for changes of the direct wind-driven Eulerian-mean MOC, rendering the residual MOC less sensitive to wind stress changes. However, the extent of this compensation depends strongly on the restoring time scale: residual MOC sensitivity increases with decreasing restoring time scale. Strong surface restoring is shown to limit the ability of the eddy-induced MOC to change in response to wind stress changes and as such suppresses the eddy compensation effect. These model results are consistent with qualitative arguments derived fromresidual-mean theory andmay have important implications for interpreting past and future observations

Predictability of European winter 2019/20: Indian Ocean dipole impacts on the NAO

Northern Europe and the UK experienced an exceptionally warm and wet winter in 2019/20, driven by an anomalously positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This positive NAO was well forecast by several seasonal forecast systems, suggesting that this winter the NAO was highly predictable at seasonal lead times. A very strong positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event was also observed at the start of winter. Here we use composite analysis and model experiments, to show that the IOD was a key driver of the observed positive NAO. Using model experiments that perturb the Indian Ocean initial conditions, two teleconnection pathways of the IOD to the north Atlantic emerge: a tropospheric teleconnection pathway via a Rossby wave train travelling from the Indian Ocean over the Pacific and Atlantic, and a stratospheric teleconnection pathway via the Aleutian region and the stratospheric polar vortex. These pathways are similar to those for the El Niño Southern Oscillation link to the north Atlantic which are already well documented. The anomalies in the north Atlantic jet stream location and strength, and the associated precipitation anomalies over the UK and northern Europe, as simulated by the model IOD experiments, show remarkable agreement with those forecast and observed