Potential impact of climate change on length of ignition danger season in Mediterranean shrubland of North Sardinia

The main aim of this work is to identify useful tools to forecast impacts of expected climate change on live fuel moisture content (Live FMC) in Mediterranean shrublands

Applicazione del laser scanner terrestre per la valutazione della condizione delle chiome in Quercus suber L.

The objective of this paper is to show the first results on the evaluation of the possible use of this technique for the estimation of crown condition in cork oak stands (Quercus suber L.). The results show that the TLS (Terrestrial laser Scanner) technology has good potential applications for the deciduous woodlands. The next objective will be to evaluate the performance of this approach in the estimation of the damage caused by insects

Contribution of vascular endothelial growth factor to the Nottingham prognostic index in node-negative breast cancer

The prognostic contribution of intratumour VEGF, the most important factor in tumour-induced angiogenesis, to NPI was evaluated by using flexible modelling in a series of 226 N-primary breast cancer patients in which steroid receptors and cell proliferation were also accounted for. VEGF provided an additional prognostic contribution to NPI mainly within ER-poor tumours. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaignhttp://www.bjcancer.co

Using terrestrial LiDAR for monitoring canopy structure in cork oak trees

The main aim of this work was to assess the capabilities of terrestrial laser scanner in measuring both changes by the time and differences among trees of canopy characteristics of Quercus suber L. (cork oak) plants

Effects of warmer and drier climate conditions on plant composition and biomass production in a Mediterranean shrubland community

The last IPCC report predicts warmer and drier conditions for the future European climate and the Mediterranean basin could be highly sensible to future climatic change. In order to investigate how the forecast more stressing factors could affect Mediterranean shrubland ecosystems, an appropriate manipulation of the microclimate was carried out in an area covered by Mediterranean maquis aimed at extending the drought period and increasing the night-time temperature. Soil cover, plant growth, litterfall, leaf water status, and leaf nutritional status were monitored over three growing seasons. The manipulation altered the microclimate according to common scenarios, increasing mean annual night-time air temperature by about 1 °C and mean annual temperature by about 0.5 °C, and decreasing precipitation between 6-46% of the total rainfall during the growing seasons. A general increase of vegetation cover was observed in the whole community during the three years of experimentation. This positive temporal pattern was mainly observed in control and warming treatment, whereas in the drought treatment it was less evident. At species-specific level, a clear negative effect of drought treatment was observed for C. monspeliensis percentage cover. Shoot elongation was not significantly affected by the warming treatment. A significant negative effect of drought treatment was noticed in the 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 growing seasons. An increase of N and P concentrations in the drought treatment in Cistus was observed and it can be explained by the reduced shoot growth induced by the water shortage that we had observed in the same treatment. The absence of a concentration effect on the other two species could be the signal of the different behaviour with regard to a drier climate, and therefore could be a symptom of future change in species composition. We underline the need of longterm observation, because of the different responses of plants in the short and long- term conditions

Una Nuova area sperimentale di lungo termine, per lo studio degli effetti dell'incremento della temperatura e del periodo di aridità in formazioni di sclerofille mediterranee

A new long-term experimental area for studying the effects of climate warming and seasonal drought on a Mediterranean shrubland community. Global changes, such as land use changes, altered atmosphere composition, and climate changes, have been altering the functioning of ecosystems with possible impacts on the degree of biodiversity. Temperature and water availability are the two main determinants of the functional processes of terrestrial ecosystems. Climatic changes could have strong effects on vulnerable ecosystems as Mediterranean shrublands/garrigue/maquis, where the growth and survival of the plants are strictly dependent on the drought and to the high summer temperature. Furthermore, other pressures, such as grazing and wildfires, occur frequently in the Mediterranean area. In order to assess the impacts of the temperature increase and precipitation reduction on Mediterranean shrublands, a new experimental area was established in Sardinia at the Porto Conte forest, Alghero (SS). A system of automatic roofs covers 6 experimental plots (20 m2), in order to simulate an increase of temperature during the night (3 plots) or to intercept the precipitations during a 2-3 months period (3 plots). Three additional plots are used as control. All the observations were conducted in other five European shrubland ecosystems, according to common protocols developed in the context of the European project VULCAN (www.vulcanproject.com). The studies of the different ecological and physiological processes are organised in working packages (Plant, Soil, Fauna, Water) and integrated in a risk assessments evaluation. The aim of this paper is to analyse the first two years of data, to demonstrate the microclimatic modifications induced by the experimental system

Assessing cross-boundary wildfire hazard, transmission, and exposure to communities in the Italy-France Maritime cooperation area

The growing threats posed by wildfires in Southern Europe are calling for the development of comprehensive and sound management and risk assessment strategies. In this work, we present the application of wildfire simulation modeling based on the minimum travel time (MTT) algorithm to assess fine-scale (100-m resolution) wildfire hazard, transmission, and exposure to communities in the Italy-France Maritime cooperation area (Sardinia, Corsica, Tuscany, Liguria and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur), which cover about 72,000 km2 of land. We simulated thousands of wildfires considering the current landscape and characterized and measured fine-scale wildfire risk factors and profiles by taking into account historical fire regimes, fuels, winds and fuel moisture conditions associated with the occurrence of the largest wildfires (>100 ha) that affected the study area in the last 20 years. Individual fires were simulated at 100-m resolution, consistent with the input files. Modeled annual burn probability and ignition probability revealed that Sardinia was the Region most affected by wildfires. The wildfire simulation outputs were then combined with main land uses and building footprint locations to characterize wildfire transmission and exposure to communities, and were summarized for main vegetation types and Regions. This study presents a cross-boundary and standardized approach based on wildfire spread modeling to analyze and quantify wildfire risk profiles in Southern Europe. The stochastic wildfire modeling systems we implemented used harmonized sets of data for a vast, fire-prone Mediterranean area, where previous similar studies were conducted at coarser resolutions and covered lower extent of lands. The approach presented in this work can be used as a reference pillar for the development and implementation of a common wildfire risk monitoring, management, and governance plan in the study area. The methods and findings of this study can be replicated in neighboring Mediterranean and other regions threatened by wildfires

Application of simulation modeling for wildfire exposure and transmission assessment in Sardinia, Italy

Abstract The development of comprehensive fire management and risk assessment strategies is of prominent concern in Southern Europe, due to the expanding scale of wildfire risk. In this work, we applied simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale (100-m resolution) wildfire exposure and risk transmission in the 24,000 km2 island of Sardinia (Italy). Sardinia contains a variety of ecological, cultural, anthropic and touristic resources that each summer are threatened by wildfires, and represents well the Mediterranean Basin environments and conditions. Wildfire simulations based on the minimum travel time algorithm were used to characterize wildfire exposure and risk transmission in terms of annual burn probability, flame length, structures exposed and type and amount of transmission. We focused on the historical conditions associated with large (>50 ha) and very large (>200 ha) wildfires that occurred in Sardinia in the period 1998–2016, and combined outputs from wildfire simulation modeling with land uses, building footprint locations, weather, and historical ignition data. The outputs were summarized for weather zones, main wind scenarios and land uses. Our study characterized spatial variations in wildfire spread, exposure and risk transmission among and within weather zones and the main winds associated with large events. This work provides a novel quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management and planning in Mediterranean areas. The proposed methodology can serve as reference for wildfire risk assessment and can be replicated elsewhere. Findings can be used to better understand the spatial dynamics and patterns of wildfire risk and evaluate expected wildfire behavior or transmission potential in Sardinia and neighboring regions

Analyzing the recent dynamics of wildland fires in Quercus suber L. woodlands in Sardinia (Italy), Corsica (France) and Catalonia (Spain)

Wildland fires represent a major threat to Quercus suber L. ecosystems, which provide relevant socioeconomic and ecological services in the Mediterranean Basin. In this work, we analyzed recent wildland fire dynamics in cork oak woodlands along the fire-prone areas of Sardinia (Italy), Corsica (France) and Catalonia (Spain). We first characterized geographic extent and main characteristics of cork oak woodlands in these regions and analyzed how environmental (climate and elevation) and socioeconomic factors (population and land uses) vary in the areas covered by Quercus suber L. We then evaluated how wildfires affected cork oak stands and, by logistic regression analysis, to what extent wildfires in cork oak areas were related to the above set of environmental and anthropic explanatory variables. Results revealed specific variations across study areas in cork oak characteristics as well as in environmental and social factors. We highlighted the spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires on cork oak woodlands, in terms of extent, seasonality, frequency and main driving factors. In the period 2003–2015, the percentage of cork oak woodlands burned ranged from 3.42% in Corsica to 11.30% in Sardinia. A few large and severe wildfires accounted for most of the area burned in cork oak woodlands. The most significant predictive variable that explained the spatial variation in wildland fire ignitions inside or nearby cork oaks was summer precipitation, while the weight of other factors varied depending on the region. This study provides evidence on recent fire dynamics in cork oak woodlands and gives valuable information and insights for the implementation of forest management and planning strategies in the Mediterranean area.This work was supported by the Sardinia Region under the project “Multifunzionalità delle foreste a quercia da sughero in Sardegna” (Multifunctionality of cork oak forests in Sardinia) funded within L.R. n. 7/2007 “Promozione della ricerca scientifica e della innovazione tecnologica in Sardegna,/Tender no. 2″, and by the “Proterina-2” Project funded by the Italia Francia-Marittimo Programme