The main aim of this work is to identify useful tools to forecast impacts of expected climate change on live fuel moisture content (Live FMC) in Mediterranean shrublands

Arca, Bachisio

Bacciu, Valentina

Duce, PierPaolo

Pellizzaro, Grazia

Scoccimarro, Enrico

Ventura, Andrea

Earth-prints Repository

Potential impact of climate change on length of ignition danger 
season in Mediterranean shrubland of North Sardinia
Grazia Pellizzaro1, Bachisio Arca1, Andrea Ventura1, Pierpaolo Duce1, Valentina Bacciu2, Enrico Scoccimarro2
1 National Council of Research, Institute of Biometeorology (CNR-IBIMET), Sassari, Italy
2CMCC Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Changes, Italy
The main aim of this work is to identify useful tools to forecast impacts of expected climate change 
on live fuel moisture content (Live FMC) in Mediterranean shrublands.
Moisture content of fine live fuel 
(diameter < 0.6 cm) was determined 
periodically during four years on 
several Mediterranean shrub 
dominant species of the study area : 
Cistus monspeliensis L., Pistacia
lentiscus L., and Juniperus
phoenicaea L.
Meteorological variables were also 
recorded.
The potential climate change impact on ignition danger season in Mediterranean Basin shrubland was 
simulated using the Drought code and future climate scenarios at local scale derived from an advanced 
high resolution Regional Climate Model realised by CMCC and University of Belgrade (SITRA project).
In order to compare different years DC was expressed as 
percentage of his maximum value during the different  
seasons. The thresholds for estimating the start and the 
end of ignition danger season were calculated by analysing
two different data series: data from beginning of year until 
the date in which the drought code reached his maximum 
value were analysed for estimating the start date, whereas, 
the others were used for estimating the end of danger 
season.  
An increase of length of danger fire season was observed 
for scenario A1B.
The first results reported here suggest that future climate 
projections could determine changes in fuel moisture 
dynamics and affect the duration of the danger fire season. 
As a consequence of this fact a probable general increase 
of fire danger in the Mediterranean area could be expected. 
Relation between Drought code and live fuel moisture content
Expected impacts of climate change on fuel status
Differences in number 
of days between 
Starting and Ending 
dates estimated using 
data from the 
Regional Climate 
Model for 
baseline(1961 – 1990) 
and A1B scenario 
(2071 – 2100)
Live fuel moisture content annual pattern
The 90th percentile value is about 60% of maximum value
reached during the different seasons for ending date and 
about 40 % for starting date
The study was carried out in North 
Western Sardinia, Italy (40°36’ N; 8°09’ E, 
30 m a.s.l.). The study area is covered by 
Mediterranean maquis and garigue. The 
climate is Mediterranean. 
-5
0
5
10
15
20
D
ay
s
-3
+15
Starting date
Ending date
0
50
100
150
200
250
81 10
1
11
7
12
9
15
1
16
5
17
9
19
3
20
7
22
1
24
2
25
6
27
0
28
4
29
8
31
9
33
9
Day of the Year
Li
v
e
 
FM
C 
(%
)
R
ai
n
fa
ll 
(m
m
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
D
ro
u
gh
t c
o
de
rainfall Cistus Rosmarinus Drought code
2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
8 49 77 10
5
13
6
16
1
19
0
23
9
26
6
29
4
32
2
Day of the Year
Li
v
e
 
FM
C 
(%
)
R
ai
n
fa
ll 
(m
m
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
D
ro
u
gh
t c
o
de
Rainfall Cistus Rosmarinus Drought code
2008
Dependent 
variable 
AIC 
Akaike Information 
Criterion 
P-value Hosmer 
Lemeshow Chi-
Square 
% Correct 
classification 
Cistus 62.82 0.65** 82.8 
Juniperus 76.93 0.22** 81.7 
Pistacia 44.82 0.93** 90.3 
Rosmarinus 54.19 0.25** 84.9 
 
Different ranges and seasonal trends of live fuel 
moisture were observed for the species 
examined. The highest variability was observed 
for Cistus and Rosmarinus.
The logistic regression approach was used in 
order to establish the relationship between the 
danger season and DC. The danger season was 
classified as a binary response (true/false) by 
using a threshold of LFMC of 100%.
The DC explains a large amount of the variability in the variable 
drought season. The model based on DC provided significant 
values of the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, indicating no 
evidence of a lack of fit; in addition, the models provided high
values of correct classification for all the species. Estimating starting and ending dates of danger season
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 11
3
12
7
14
1
15
5
16
9
18
3
19
7
21
1
22
5
23
9
25
3
26
7
28
1
29
5
30
9
32
3
33
7
35
1
36
5
Day of the Year
Li
v
e
 
FM
C 
(%
)
Cistus 05 Cistus 07 Cistus 08 Cistus 09
Rosmarinus 05 Rosmarinus 07 Rosmarinus 08 Rosmarinus 09
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 11
3
12
7
14
1
15
5
16
9
18
3
19
7
21
1
22
5
23
9
25
3
26
7
28
1
29
5
30
9
32
3
33
7
35
1
36
5
Day of the Year
Li
v
e
 
FM
C 
(%
)
Juniperus 05 Juniperus 07 Juniperus 08 Juniperus 09 Pistacia 05
Pistacia 07 Pistacia 08 Pistacia 09
Statistical parameters provided by the logistic analysis
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% DC respect of maximum value
Pe
rc
e
n
til
e
Starting date
Percentile curve for Drought code considering live fuel moisture data higher
than 100%. 
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% DC respect of maximum value
Pe
rc
e
n
til
e
LFMC > 100%
All species LFMC > 100%All species
Ending date


Potential impact of climate change on length of ignition danger season in Mediterranean shrubland of North Sardinia

http://www.earth-prints.org/bitstream/2122/7354/1/Poster_LFMC_Alghero_04102011.pdf

Potential impact of climate change on length of ignition danger season in Mediterranean shrubland of North Sardinia

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Earth-prints Repository