Towards a Bayesian framework for model validation

In this paper we discuss some concepts and a methodology of a Bayesian framework for model validation under uncertainty, which produces a probabilistic value for a models validity and may be used in the design of”validation experiments. By using a stochastic metric as a measure of the distance between experiment and prediction, we update a validation distribution. We show this in practice using a simple numerical experiment and discuss the current shortcomings of the method. We finally discuss the role of information entropy in designing validation experiments

On directed information theory and Granger causality graphs

Directed information theory deals with communication channels with feedback. When applied to networks, a natural extension based on causal conditioning is needed. We show here that measures built from directed information theory in networks can be used to assess Granger causality graphs of stochastic processes. We show that directed information theory includes measures such as the transfer entropy, and that it is the adequate information theoretic framework needed for neuroscience applications, such as connectivity inference problems.Comment: accepted for publications, Journal of Computational Neuroscienc

Reclassifying stroke lesion anatomy

Cognitive and behavioural outcomes in stroke reflect the interaction between two complex anatomically-distributed patterns: the functional organization of the brain and the structural distribution of ischaemic injury. Conventional outcome models—for individual prediction or population-level inference—commonly ignore this complexity, discarding anatomical variation beyond simple characteristics such as lesion volume. This sets a hard limit on the maximum fidelity such models can achieve. High-dimensional methods can overcome this problem, but only at prohibitively large data scales. Drawing on one of the largest published collections of anatomically-registered imaging of acute stroke—N=1333—here we use non-linear dimensionality reduction to derive a succinct latent representation of the anatomical patterns of ischaemic injury, agglomerated into 21 distinct intuitive categories. We compare the maximal predictive performance it enables against both simpler low-dimensional and more complex high-dimensional representations, employing multiple empirically-informed ground truth models of distributed structure-outcome relationships. We show our representation sets a substantially higher ceiling on predictive fidelity than conventional low-dimensional approaches, but lower than that achievable within a high-dimensional framework. Where descriptive simplicity is a necessity, such as within clinical care or research trials of modest size, the representation we propose arguably offers a favourable compromise of compactness and fidelity

A survey of UK medical schools' arrangements for early patient contact

Background: Many U.K. medical schools have patient contact in the first two years of the undergraduate course. Aim: To compare the purposes and organization of early patient contact in UK medical schools and to relate these arrangements to the schools' curricular objectives. Methods: A telephone survey of lead educators in UK medicals schools. Categories of contact were plotted against phases of the course to discern patterns of organisation. Results: The quantity of contact varies considerably (four to 65 days). There is a pattern, with learning objectives around the social context of health and illness preceding skills based work and integrated clinical knowledge for practice coming later. Schools fall into three categories: close adherence to the preclinical/clinical split, with limited early contact acting as an introduction to social aspects of health; provision of substantial patient contact to maximize the integration of knowledge and skills; and transitional, with limited clinical goals. General practice provides between one third and one half of early patient contact. Conclusions: Arrangements meet the objectives set by each school and reflect differing educational philosophies. Change is toward more early contact. There appears to be no national guidance which supports a minimum quantity of patient contact or specific educational purpose in the early years of U.K. basic medical training

MCL-1 is essential for survival but dispensable for metabolic fitness of FOXP3+ regulatory T cells

FOXP3+ regulatory T (Treg) cells are essential for maintaining immunological tolerance. Given their importance in immune-related diseases, cancer and obesity, there is increasing interest in targeting the Treg cell compartment therapeutically. New pharmacological inhibitors that specifically target the prosurvival protein MCL-1 may provide this opportunity, as Treg cells are particularly reliant upon this protein. However, there are two distinct isoforms of MCL-1; one located at the outer mitochondrial membrane (OMM) that is required to antagonize apoptosis, and another at the inner mitochondrial membrane (IMM) that is reported to maintain IMM structure and metabolism via ATP production during oxidative phosphorylation. We set out to elucidate the relative importance of these distinct biological functions of MCL-1 in Treg cells to assess whether MCL-1 inhibition might impact upon the metabolism of cells able to resist apoptosis. Conditional deletion of Mcl1 in FOXP3+ Treg cells resulted in a lethal multiorgan autoimmunity due to the depletion of the Treg cell compartment. This striking phenotype was completely rescued by concomitant deletion of the apoptotic effector proteins BAK and BAX, indicating that apoptosis plays a pivotal role in the homeostasis of Treg cells. Notably, MCL-1-deficient Treg cells rescued from apoptosis displayed normal metabolic capacity. Moreover, pharmacological inhibition of MCL-1 in Treg cells resistant to apoptosis did not perturb their metabolic function. We conclude that Treg cells require MCL-1 only to antagonize apoptosis and not for metabolism. Therefore, MCL-1 inhibition could be used to manipulate Treg cell survival for clinical benefit without affecting the metabolic fitness of cells resisting apoptosis

The N-terminal intrinsically disordered domain of mgm101p is localized to the mitochondrial nucleoid.

The mitochondrial genome maintenance gene, MGM101, is essential for yeasts that depend on mitochondrial DNA replication. Previously, in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, it has been found that the carboxy-terminal two-thirds of Mgm101p has a functional core. Furthermore, there is a high level of amino acid sequence conservation in this region from widely diverse species. By contrast, the amino-terminal region, that is also essential for function, does not have recognizable conservation. Using a bioinformatic approach we find that the functional core from yeast and a corresponding region of Mgm101p from the coral Acropora millepora have an ordered structure, while the N-terminal domains of sequences from yeast and coral are predicted to be disordered. To examine whether ordered and disordered domains of Mgm101p have specific or general functions we made chimeric proteins from yeast and coral by swapping the two regions. We find, by an in vivo assay in S.cerevisiae, that the ordered domain of A.millepora can functionally replace the yeast core region but the disordered domain of the coral protein cannot substitute for its yeast counterpart. Mgm101p is found in the mitochondrial nucleoid along with enzymes and proteins involved in mtDNA replication. By attaching green fluorescent protein to the N-terminal disordered domain of yeast Mgm101p we find that GFP is still directed to the mitochondrial nucleoid where full-length Mgm101p-GFP is targeted

Distributed processing and temporal codes in neuronal networks

The cerebral cortex presents itself as a distributed dynamical system with the characteristics of a small world network. The neuronal correlates of cognitive and executive processes often appear to consist of the coordinated activity of large assemblies of widely distributed neurons. These features require mechanisms for the selective routing of signals across densely interconnected networks, the flexible and context dependent binding of neuronal groups into functionally coherent assemblies and the task and attention dependent integration of subsystems. In order to implement these mechanisms, it is proposed that neuronal responses should convey two orthogonal messages in parallel. They should indicate (1) the presence of the feature to which they are tuned and (2) with which other neurons (specific target cells or members of a coherent assembly) they are communicating. The first message is encoded in the discharge frequency of the neurons (rate code) and it is proposed that the second message is contained in the precise timing relationships between individual spikes of distributed neurons (temporal code). It is further proposed that these precise timing relations are established either by the timing of external events (stimulus locking) or by internal timing mechanisms. The latter are assumed to consist of an oscillatory modulation of neuronal responses in different frequency bands that cover a broad frequency range from <2 Hz (delta) to >40 Hz (gamma) and ripples. These oscillations limit the communication of cells to short temporal windows whereby the duration of these windows decreases with oscillation frequency. Thus, by varying the phase relationship between oscillating groups, networks of functionally cooperating neurons can be flexibly configurated within hard wired networks. Moreover, by synchronizing the spikes emitted by neuronal populations, the saliency of their responses can be enhanced due to the coincidence sensitivity of receiving neurons in very much the same way as can be achieved by increasing the discharge rate. Experimental evidence will be reviewed in support of the coexistence of rate and temporal codes. Evidence will also be provided that disturbances of temporal coding mechanisms are likely to be one of the pathophysiological mechanisms in schizophrenia

Numerical elimination and moduli space of vacua

We propose a new computational method to understand the vacuum moduli space of (supersymmetric) field theories. By combining numerical algebraic geometry (NAG) and elimination theory, we develop a powerful, efficient, and parallelizable algorithm toextract important information such as the dimension, branch structure, Hilbert series and subsequent operator counting, as well as variation according to coupling constants and mass parameters. We illustrate this method on a host of examples from gauge theory, string theory, and algebraic geometry