A Dimension-Adaptive Multi-Index Monte Carlo Method Applied to a Model of a Heat Exchanger

We present an adaptive version of the Multi-Index Monte Carlo method, introduced by Haji-Ali, Nobile and Tempone (2016), for simulating PDEs with coefficients that are random fields. A classical technique for sampling from these random fields is the Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansion. Our adaptive algorithm is based on the adaptive algorithm used in sparse grid cubature as introduced by Gerstner and Griebel (2003), and automatically chooses the number of terms needed in this expansion, as well as the required spatial discretizations of the PDE model. We apply the method to a simplified model of a heat exchanger with random insulator material, where the stochastic characteristics are modeled as a lognormal random field, and we show consistent computational savings

Circulating resistin levels and risk of multiple myeloma in three prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND: Resistin is a polypeptide hormone secreted by adipose tissue. A prior hospital-based case-control study reported serum resistin levels to be inversely associated with risk of multiple myeloma (MM). To date, this association has not been investigated prospectively. METHODS: We measured resistin concentrations for pre-diagnosis peripheral blood samples from 178 MM cases and 358 individually matched controls from three cohorts participating in the MM cohort consortium. RESULTS: In overall analyses, higher resistin levels were weakly associated with reduced MM risk. For men, we observed a statistically significant inverse association between resistin levels and MM (odds ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24-0.83 and 0.54; 95% CI 0.29-0.99, for the third and fourth quartiles, respectively, vs the lowest quartile; Ptrend=0.03). No association was observed for women. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first prospective evidence that low circulating resistin levels may be associated with an increased risk of MM, particularly for men

The normal ranges of cardiovascular parameters measured using the ultrasonic cardiac output monitor

The ultrasonic cardiac output monitor (USCOM) is a noninvasive transcutaneous continuous wave Doppler method for assessing hemodynamics. There are no published reference ranges for normal values in adults (aged 18– 60 years) for this device. This study aimed to (1) measure cardiovascular indices using USCOM in healthy adults aged 18–60 years; (2) combine these data with those for healthy children (aged 0–12), adolescents (aged 12–18), and the elderly (aged over 60) from our previously published studies in order to present normal ranges for all ages, and (3) establish normal ranges of USCOM-derived variables according to both weight and age. This was a population- based cross-sectional observational study of healthy Chinese subjects aged 0.5–89 years in Hong Kong. USCOM scans were performed on all subjects, to produce measurements including stroke volume, cardiac output, and systemic vascular resistance. Data from previously published studies (children, adolescents, and the elderly) were included. Normal ranges were defined as lying between the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. A total of 2218 subjects were studied (mean age = 16.4, range = 0.5–89; 52% male). From previous studies, 1197 children (aged 0–12, 55% male), 590 adolescents (aged 12–18, 49% male), and 77 elderly (aged 60–89, 55% male) were included. New data were collected from 354 adults aged 18–60 (47% male). Normal ranges are presented according to age and weight. We present comprehensive normal ranges for hemodynamic parameters obtained with USCOM in healthy subjects of all ages from infancy to the elderly

Ion-beam-driven intense electrostatic solitary waves in reconnection jet

Electrostatic solitary waves (ESWs) have been reported inside reconnection jets, but their source and role remain unclear hitherto. Here we present the first observational evidence of ESWs generation by cold ion beams inside the jet, by using high-cadence measurements from the Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft in the Earth's magnetotail. Inside the jet, intense ESWs with amplitude up to 30 mV m(-1) and potential up to similar to 7% of the electron temperature are observed in association with accelerated cold ion beams. Instability analysis shows that the ion beams are unstable, providing free energy for the ESWs. The waves are observed to thermalize the beams, thus providing a new channel for ion heating inside the jet. Our study suggests that electrostatic turbulence can play an important role in the jet dynamics.Peer reviewe

A transient I band excess in the optical spectrum of the accreting millisecond pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658

The optical counterpart of the transient, millisecond X-ray pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658 was observed in four colours (BVRI) for five weeks during the 2005 June-July outburst. The optical fluxes declined by ~2 magnitudes during the first 16 days and then commenced quasi-periodic secondary outbursts, with time-scales of several days, similar to those seen in 2000 and 2002. The broadband spectra derived from these measurements were generally consistent with emission from an X-ray heated accretion disc. During the first 16 days decline in intensity the spectrum became redder. We suggest that the primary outburst was initiated by a viscosity change driven instability in the inner disc and note the contrast with another accreting millisecond pulsar, XTE J0929--314, for which the spectrum becomes bluer during the decline. On the night of 2005 June 5 (HJD 2453527) the I band flux was ~0.45 magnitudes brighter than on the preceding or following nights whereas the BVR bands showed no obvious enhancement. A Type I X-ray burst was detected by the RXTE spacecraft during this I band integration. It seems unlikely that reprocessed radiation from the burst was sufficient to explain the observed increase. We suggest that a major part of the I band excess was due to synchrotron emission triggered by the X-ray burst. Several other significant short duration changes in V-I were detected. One occurred at about HJD 2453546 in the early phase of the first secondary outburst and may be due to a mass transfer instability or to another synchrotron emission event.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, accepted by MNRAS, 10 May 2006. Ver. 2 - larger Table 2 + various modest text change

Development and validation of the DIabetes Severity SCOre (DISSCO) in 139 626 individuals with type 2 diabetes: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Clinically applicable diabetes severity measures are lacking, with no previous studies comparing their predictive value with glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). We developed and validated a type 2 diabetes severity score (the DIabetes Severity SCOre, DISSCO) and evaluated its association with risks of hospitalization and mortality, assessing its additional risk information to sociodemographic factors and HbA1c. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used UK primary and secondary care data for 139 626 individuals with type 2 diabetes between 2007 and 2017, aged ≥35 years, and registered in general practices in England. The study cohort was randomly divided into a training cohort (n=111 748, 80%) to develop the severity tool and a validation cohort (n=27 878). We developed baseline and longitudinal severity scores using 34 diabetes-related domains. Cox regression models (adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation, and HbA1c) were used for primary (all-cause mortality) and secondary (hospitalization due to any cause, diabetes, hypoglycemia, or cardiovascular disease or procedures) outcomes. Likelihood ratio (LR) tests were fitted to assess the significance of adding DISSCO to the sociodemographics and HbA1c models. RESULTS: A total of 139 626 patients registered in 400 general practices, aged 63±12 years were included, 45% of whom were women, 83% were White, and 18% were from deprived areas. The mean baseline severity score was 1.3±2.0. Overall, 27 362 (20%) people died and 99 951 (72%) had ≥1 hospitalization. In the training cohort, a one-unit increase in baseline DISSCO was associated with higher hazard of mortality (HR: 1.14, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.15, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC)=0.76) and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR: 1.45, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.46, AUROC=0.73). The LR tests showed that adding DISSCO to sociodemographic variables significantly improved the predictive value of survival models, outperforming the added value of HbA1c for all outcomes. Findings were consistent in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of DISSCO are associated with higher risks for hospital admissions and mortality. The new severity score had higher predictive value than the proxy used in clinical practice, HbA1c. This reproducible algorithm can help practitioners stratify clinical care of patients with type 2 diabetes

Change in weight and waist circumference and risk of colorectal cancer: Results from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

Background: Studies reporting the association between change in weight or body mass index during midlife and risk of colorectal cancer have found inconsistent results, and only one study to date has reported the association between change in waist circumference (a measure of central adiposity) and risk of colorectal cancer. Methods: We investigated the association between risk of colorectal cancer and changes in directly measured waist circumference and weight from baseline (1990-1994) to wave 2 (2003-2007). Cox regression, with age as the time metric and follow-up starting at wave 2, adjusted for covariates selected from a causal model, was used to estimate the Hazard Ratios (HRs) and 95 % Confidence Intervals (CIs) for the change in waist circumference and weight in relation to risk of colorectal cancer. Results: A total of 373 cases of colorectal cancer were diagnosed during an average 9 years of follow-up of 20,605 participants. Increases in waist circumference and weight were not associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (HR per 5 cm increase in waist circumference = 1.02; 95 % CI: 0.95, 1.10; HR per 5 kg increase in weight = 0.93; 0.85, 1.02). For individuals with a waist circumference at baseline that was less than the sex-specific mean value there was a slight increased risk of colorectal cancer associated with a 5 cm increase in waist circumference at wave 2 (HR = 1.08; 0.97, 1.21). Conclusion: Increases in waist circumference and weight during midlife do not appear to be associated with the risk of colorectal cancer

Smoking and Subclinical ILD in RA versus the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

A population-based cohort showed an association between cigarette smoking and subclinical parenchymal lung disease defined as regions of increased computed tomography (CT) lung densitometry. This technique has not been applied to the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) population where associated ILD is highly prevalent. The association between cumulative cigarette smoking and volume of areas of high attenuation (HAA: >-600 and <-250 Hounsfield Units) on full inspiratory CT was compared in 172 RA participants and 3,969 controls in a general population sample. Multivariable regression models were used to adjust for demography, anthropometrics, percent emphysema, and CT parameters. The mean cumulative cigarette smoking exposure was 25 (IQR 10–42) and 15(IQR 5–31) pack-years for the RA and non-RA cohorts, respectively. Mean HAA was 153(±57) cm3 and 129(±50) cm3 in the RA and non-RA cohorts, respectively. Each 10 cigarette pack-year increment was associated with a higher HAA by 0.03% (95% CI, 0.007–0.05%) in RA patients and by 0.008% (95% CI, 0.003–0.01%) in those without RA (interaction p = 0.001). Cigarette smoking was associated with higher lung attenuation; with a magnitude of association more pronounced in those with RA than in the general population. These data suggest that cigarette smoking may be a more potent ILD risk factor for RA patients than in the general population

Why nanoprojectiles work differently than macroimpactors: The role of plastic flow

Atomistic simulation data on crater formation due to the hypervelocity impact of nanoprojectiles of up to 55 nm diameter and with targets containing up to 10^10 atoms are compared to available experimental data on micron-, mm-, and cm-sized projectiles. We show that previous scaling laws do not hold in the nanoregime and outline the reasons: within our simulations we observe that the cratering mechanism changes, going from the smallest to the largest simulated scales, from an evaporative regime to a regime where melt and plastic flow dominate, as is expected in larger microscale experiments. The importance of the strain-rate dependence of strength and of dislocation production and motion are discussed.Fil: Anders, Christian. Universitat Kaiserslautern; AlemaniaFil: Bringa, Eduardo Marcial. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Ziegenhain, Gerolf. Universitat Kaiserslautern; AlemaniaFil: Graham, Giles A.. Natural History Museum; Reino UnidoFil: Hansen, J. Freddy. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Park, Nigel. No especifíca;Fil: Teslich, Nick E.. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Urbassek, Herbert M.. Universitat Kaiserslautern; Alemani