Humanity’s environmental problems can only be fixed by changing the system. The coronavirus offers a chance.

Societies need to introduce much more radical emissions reductions targets than those agreed in Paris if they are to successfully slow the pace of change. Covid-19 makes this possible. By forcing aviation and other transportation businesses to downsize emissions have started to fall. By paying people to stay at home governments have shown that they can support them during a transition. Societies should grasp this unique chance for radical social and economic reform

Rethinking Everything: A sustainable economic system requires radical change in almost everything people consider normal

Economic growth is not a prerequisite for human development. While economic growth appeared useful following the Second World War, its continued pursuit will result in further environmental destruction and ever-widening inequality. It risks making climate change unstoppable, with dire consequences for humanity and most other species. It is not possible to make a gradual shift to a more sustainable system, as the basic requirements for an enduring economic system are fundamentally different from those that currently exist. To avoid an environmental catastrophe, societies need to deconstruct their economies and radically rethink their purpose

Solving the human sustainability problem in short-termist societies

Society has so far failed to create a sustainable economic system because all conventional attempts to change the current paradigm lead to a short-term decline in the rate economic growth, resulting in higher inequality and unemployment, outcomes which are politically unacceptable. This article shows how to overcome this hurdle, by adopting 13 unconventional policies which reduce unemployment and inequality while cutting greenhouse-gas emissions, regardless of what happens to economic growth, and so allow for a gradual transition to a sustainable system in short-termist societies

International genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new primary biliary cirrhosis risk loci and targetable pathogenic pathways.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist

Let the poor world grow

After introducing the concept of globalisation, in the first part of this paper the author reviews the work of sociologists who have developed the study of modernisation to examine the features of contemporary social change revolving around the various paradigms of interpretation of the nascent global society in the 1990s. The second part goes on to exemplify some consequences of globalisation on two levels: macrostructural, with reference to practical economic consequences, and the changes that have overtaken human spaces in everyday life.Nella prima parte del paper dopo aver introdotto il concetto di globalizzazione, l’autore fa seguire un rapido excursus del pensiero dei sociologi che, a partire dallo studio della modernizzazione, si sono spinti ad approfondire i caratteri del mutamento sociale contemporaneo partendo dai diversi paradigmi d’interpretazione della nascente società globale degli anni ’90. Nella seconda parte del saggio si esemplificano alcune conseguenze della globalizzazione non solo sul piano macrostrutturale, con riferimento alle conseguenze registrate dalla concreta vita economica, ma anche sul piano dei mutamenti della vita quotidiana

Time for a Model Change

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Pretreatment prediction of response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: development and validation of the UDCA Response Score.

BACKGROUND Treatment guidelines recommend a stepwise approach to primary biliary cholangitis: all patients begin treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) monotherapy and those with an inadequate biochemical response after 12 months are subsequently considered for second-line therapies. However, as a result, patients at the highest risk can wait the longest for effective treatment. We determined whether UDCA response can be accurately predicted using pretreatment clinical parameters. METHODS We did logistic regression analysis of pretreatment variables in a discovery cohort of patients in the UK with primary biliary cholangitis to derive the best-fitting model of UDCA response, defined as alkaline phosphatase less than 1·67 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), measured after 12 months of treatment with UDCA. We validated the model in an external cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and treated with UDCA in Italy. Additionally, we assessed correlations between model predictions and key histological features, such as biliary injury and fibrosis, on liver biopsy samples. FINDINGS 2703 participants diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis between Jan 1, 1998, and May 31, 2015, were included in the UK-PBC cohort for derivation of the model. The following pretreatment parameters were associated with lower probability of UDCA response: higher alkaline phosphatase concentration (p<0·0001), higher total bilirubin concentration (p=0·0003), lower aminotransferase concentration (p=0·0012), younger age (p<0·0001), longer interval from diagnosis to the start of UDCA treatment (treatment time lag, p<0·0001), and worsening of alkaline phosphatase concentration from diagnosis (p<0·0001). Based on these variables, we derived a predictive score of UDCA response. In the external validation cohort, 460 patients diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis were treated with UDCA, with follow-up data until May 31, 2016. In this validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score was 0·83 (95% CI 0·79-0·87). In 20 liver biopsy samples from patients with primary biliary cholangitis, the UDCA response score was associated with ductular reaction (r=-0·556, p=0·0130) and intermediate hepatocytes (probability of response was 0·90 if intermediate hepatocytes were absent vs 0·51 if present). INTERPRETATION We have derived and externally validated a model based on pretreatment variables that accurately predicts UDCA response. Association with histological features provides face validity. This model provides a basis to explore alternative approaches to treatment stratification in patients with primary biliary cholangitis. FUNDING UK Medical Research Council and University of Milan-Bicocca

Pretreatment prediction of response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: development and validation of the UDCA Response Score.

BACKGROUND: Treatment guidelines recommend a stepwise approach to primary biliary cholangitis: all patients begin treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) monotherapy and those with an inadequate biochemical response after 12 months are subsequently considered for second-line therapies. However, as a result, patients at the highest risk can wait the longest for effective treatment. We determined whether UDCA response can be accurately predicted using pretreatment clinical parameters. METHODS: We did logistic regression analysis of pretreatment variables in a discovery cohort of patients in the UK with primary biliary cholangitis to derive the best-fitting model of UDCA response, defined as alkaline phosphatase less than 1·67 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), measured after 12 months of treatment with UDCA. We validated the model in an external cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and treated with UDCA in Italy. Additionally, we assessed correlations between model predictions and key histological features, such as biliary injury and fibrosis, on liver biopsy samples. FINDINGS: 2703 participants diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis between Jan 1, 1998, and May 31, 2015, were included in the UK-PBC cohort for derivation of the model. The following pretreatment parameters were associated with lower probability of UDCA response: higher alkaline phosphatase concentration (p<0·0001), higher total bilirubin concentration (p=0·0003), lower aminotransferase concentration (p=0·0012), younger age (p<0·0001), longer interval from diagnosis to the start of UDCA treatment (treatment time lag, p<0·0001), and worsening of alkaline phosphatase concentration from diagnosis (p<0·0001). Based on these variables, we derived a predictive score of UDCA response. In the external validation cohort, 460 patients diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis were treated with UDCA, with follow-up data until May 31, 2016. In this validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score was 0·83 (95% CI 0·79-0·87). In 20 liver biopsy samples from patients with primary biliary cholangitis, the UDCA response score was associated with ductular reaction (r=-0·556, p=0·0130) and intermediate hepatocytes (probability of response was 0·90 if intermediate hepatocytes were absent vs 0·51 if present). INTERPRETATION: We have derived and externally validated a model based on pretreatment variables that accurately predicts UDCA response. Association with histological features provides face validity. This model provides a basis to explore alternative approaches to treatment stratification in patients with primary biliary cholangitis. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and University of Milan-Bicocca