Declining HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis of empiric data

Introduction: UNAIDS models suggest HIV incidence is declining in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to assess whether modelled trends are supported by empirical evidence. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of adult HIV incidence data from sub-Saharan Africa by searching Embase, Scopus, PubMed and OVID databases and technical reports published between 1 January 2010 and 23 July 2019. We included prospective and cross-sectional studies that directly measured incidence from blood samples. Incidence data were abstracted according to population risk group, geographic location, sex, intervention arm and calendar period. Weighted regression models were used to assess incidence trends across general population studies by sex. We also identified studies reporting greater than or equal to three incidence measurements since 2010 and assessed trends within them. Results: Total 291 studies, including 22 sub-Saharan African countries, met inclusion criteria. Most studies were conducted in South Africa (n = 102), Uganda (n = 46) and Kenya (n = 41); there were 26 countries with no published incidence data, most in western and central Africa. Data were most commonly derived from prospective observational studies (n = 163; 56%) and from geographically defined populations with limited demographic or risk-based enrolment criteria other than age (i.e., general population studies; n = 151; 52%). Across general population studies, average annual incidence declines since 2010 were 0.12/100 person-years (95% CI: 0.06–0.18; p = 0.001) among men and 0.10/100 person-years (95% CI: −0.02–0.22; p = 0.093) among women in eastern Africa, and 0.25/100 person-years (95% CI: 0.17–034; p < 0.0001) among men and 0.42/100 person-years (95% CI: 0.23–0.62; p = 0.0002) among women in southern Africa. In nine of 10 studies with multiple measurements, incidence declined over time, including in two studies of key populations. Across all population risk groups, the highest HIV incidence estimates were observed among men who have sex with men, with rates ranging from 1.0 to 15.4/100 person-years. Within general population studies, incidence was typically higher in women than men with a median female-to-male incidence rate ratio of 1.47 (IQR: 1.11 to 1.83) with evidence of a growing sex disparity over time. Conclusions: Empirical incidence data show the rate of new HIV infections is declining in eastern and southern Africa. However, recent incidence data are non-existent or very limited for many countries and key populations

Consistency between Household and County Measures of Onsite Schooling during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The academic, socioemotional, and health impacts of school policies throughout the COVID-19 pandemic have been a source of many questions that require accurate information about the extent of onsite schooling occurring. This article investigates school operational status datasets during the pandemic, comparing (1) self-report data collected nationally on the household level through a Facebook-based survey, (2) county-level school policy data, and (3) a school-level closure status dataset based on phone GPS tracking. The percentage of any onsite instruction within states and counties are compared across datasets from December 2020 to May 2021. Sources were relatively consistent at the state level and for large counties, but key differences were revealed between units of measurement, showing differences between policy and household decisions surrounding children’s schooling experiences. The consistency levels across sources support the usage of each of the school policy sources to answer questions about the educational experiences, factors, and impacts related to K-12 education across the nation during the pandemic, but it remains vital to think critically as to which unit of measurement is most relevant to targeted research questions

In-person schooling and associated COVID-19 risk in the United States over spring semester 2021

Because of the importance of schools to childhood development, the relationship between in-person schooling and COVID-19 risk has been one of the most important questions of this pandemic. Previous work in the United States during winter 2020–2021 showed that in-person schooling carried some risk for household members and that mitigation measures reduced this risk. Schooling and the COVID-19 landscape changed radically over spring semester 2021. Here, we use data from a massive online survey to characterize changes in in-person schooling behavior and associated risks over that period. We find increases in in-person schooling and reductions in mitigations over time. In-person schooling is associated with increased reporting of COVID-19 outcomes even among vaccinated individuals (although the absolute risk among the vaccinated is greatly reduced). Vaccinated teachers working outside the home were less likely to report COVID-19–related outcomes than unvaccinated teachers working exclusively from home. Adequate mitigation measures appear to eliminate the excess risk associated with in-person schooling

HIV-1 diversity among young women in rural South Africa: HPTN 068

Background South Africa has one of the highest rates of HIV-1 (HIV) infection world-wide, with the highest rates among young women. We analyzed the molecular epidemiology and evolutionary history of HIV in young women attending high school in rural South Africa. Methods Samples were obtained from the HPTN 068 randomized controlled trial, which evaluated the effect of cash transfers for school attendance on HIV incidence in women aged 13–20 years (Mpumalanga province, 2011–2015). Plasma samples from HIV-infected participants were analyzed using the ViroSeq HIV-1 Genotyping assay. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using 200 pol gene study sequences and 2,294 subtype C reference sequences from South Africa. Transmission clusters were identified using Cluster Picker and HIV-TRACE, and were characterized using demographic and other epidemiological data. Phylodynamic analyses were performed using the BEAST software. Results The study enrolled 2,533 young women who were followed through their expected high school graduation date (main study); some participants had a post-study assessment (follow-up study). Two-hundred-twelve of 2,533 enrolled young women had HIV infection. HIV pol sequences were obtained for 94% (n = 201/212) of the HIV-infected participants. All but one of the sequences were HIV-1 subtype C; the non-C subtype sequence was excluded from further analysis. Median pairwise genetic distance between the subtype C sequences was 6.4% (IQR: 5.6–7.2). Overall, 26% of study sequences fell into 21 phylogenetic clusters with 2–6 women per cluster. Thirteen (62%) clusters included women who were HIV-infected at enrollment. Clustering was not associated with study arm, demographic or other epidemiological factors. The estimated date of origin of HIV subtype C in the study population was 1958 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 1931–1980), and the median estimated substitution rate among study pol sequences was 1.98x10-3 (95% HPD: 1.15x10-3–2.81x10-3) per site per year. Conclusions Phylogenetic analysis suggests that multiple HIV subtype C sublineages circulate among school age girls in South Africa. There were no substantive differences in the molecular epidemiology of HIV between control and intervention arms in the HPTN 068 trial

Migration, hotspots, and dispersal of HIV infection in Rakai, Uganda

HIV prevalence varies markedly throughout Africa, and it is often presumed areas of higher HIV prevalence (i.e., hotspots) serve as sources of infection to neighboring areas of lower prevalence. However, the small-scale geography of migration networks and movement of HIV-positive individuals between communities is poorly understood. Here, we use population-based data from ~22,000 persons of known HIV status to characterize migratory patterns and their relationship to HIV among 38 communities in Rakai, Uganda with HIV prevalence ranging from 9 to 43%. We find that migrants moving into hotspots had significantly higher HIV prevalence than migrants moving elsewhere, but out-migration from hotspots was geographically dispersed, contributing minimally to HIV burden in destination locations. Our results challenge the assumption that high prevalence hotspots are drivers of transmission in regional epidemics, instead suggesting that migrants with high HIV prevalence, particularly women, selectively migrate to these areas

Evaluation of Phylogenetic Methods for Inferring the Direction of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052

Background: Phylogenetic analysis can be used to assess human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in populations. We inferred the direction of HIV transmission using whole-genome HIV sequences from couples with known linked infection and known transmission direction. Methods: Complete next-generation sequencing (NGS) data were obtained for 105 unique index-partner sample pairs from 32 couples enrolled in the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 study (up to 2 samples/person). Index samples were obtained up to 5.5 years before partner infection; partner samples were obtained near the time of seroconversion. The bioinformatics method, phyloscanner, was used to infer transmission direction. Analyses were performed using samples from individual sample pairs, samples from all couples (1 sample/person; group analysis), and all available samples (multisample group analysis). Analysis was also performed using NGS data from defined regions of the HIV genome (gag, pol, env). Results: Using whole-genome NGS data, transmission direction was inferred correctly (index to partner) for 98 of 105 (93.3%) of the individual sample pairs, 99 of 105 (94.3%) sample pairs using group analysis, and 31 of the 32 couples (96.9%) using multisample group analysis. There were no cases where the incorrect transmission direction (partner to index) was inferred. The accuracy of the method was higher with greater time between index and partner sample collection. Pol region sequences performed better than env or gag sequences for inferring transmission direction. Conclusions: We demonstrate the potential of a phylogenetic method to infer the direction of HIV transmission between 2 individuals using whole-genome and pol NGS data

The Role of Viral Introductions in Sustaining Community-Based HIV Epidemics in Rural Uganda: Evidence from Spatial Clustering, Phylogenetics, and Egocentric Transmission Models

Background:It is often assumed that local sexual networks play a dominant role in HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of this study was to determine the extent to which continued HIV transmission in rural communities-home to two-thirds of the African population-is driven by intra-community sexual networks versus viral introductions from outside of communities.Methods and Findings:We analyzed the spatial dynamics of HIV transmission in rural Rakai District, Uganda, using data from a cohort of 14,594 individuals within 46 communities. We applied spatial clustering statistics, viral phylogenetics, and probabilistic transmission models to quantify the relative contribution of viral introductions into communities versus community- and household-based transmission to HIV incidence. Individuals living in households with HIV-incident (n = 189) or HIV-prevalent (n = 1,597) persons were 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7-3.7) times more likely to be HIV infected themselves compared to the population in general, but spatial clustering outside of households was relatively weak and was confined to distances <500 m. Phylogenetic analyses of gag and env genes suggest that chains of transmission frequently cross community boundaries. A total of 95 phylogenetic clusters were identified, of which 44% (42/95) were two individuals sharing a household. Among the remaining clusters, 72% (38/53) crossed community boundaries. Using the locations of self-reported sexual partners, we estimate that 39% (95% CI: 34%-42%) of new viral transmissions occur within stable household partnerships, and that among those infected by extra-household sexual partners, 62% (95% CI: 55%-70%) are infected by sexual partners from outside their community. These results rely on the representativeness of the sample and the quality of self-reported partnership data and may not reflect HIV transmission patterns outside of Rakai.Conclusions:Our findings suggest that HIV introductions into communities are common and account for a significant proportion of new HIV infections acquired outside of households in rural Uganda, though the extent to which this is true elsewhere in Africa remains unknown. Our results also suggest that HIV prevention efforts should be implemented at spatial scales broader than the community and should target key populations likely responsible for introductions into communities.Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Inferring HIV-1 transmission networks and sources of epidemic spread in Africa with deep-sequence phylogenetic analysis

To prevent new infections with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in sub-Saharan Africa, UNAIDS recommends targeting interventions to populations that are at high risk of acquiring and passing on the virus. Yet it is often unclear who and where these ‘source’ populations are. Here we demonstrate how viral deep-sequencing can be used to reconstruct HIV-1 transmission networks and to infer the direction of transmission in these networks. We are able to deep-sequence virus from a large population-based sample of infected individuals in Rakai District, Uganda, reconstruct partial transmission networks, and infer the direction of transmission within them at an estimated error rate of 16.3% [8.8–28.3%]. With this error rate, deep-sequence phylogenetics cannot be used against individuals in legal contexts, but is sufficiently low for population-level inferences into the sources of epidemic spread. The technique presents new opportunities for characterizing source populations and for targeting of HIV-1 prevention interventions in Africa

Measurement of CP asymmetries and branching fraction ratios of B− decays to two charm mesons

The $CP$ asymmetries of seven $B^-$ decays to two charm mesons are measured using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $9\text{fb}^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions collected by the LHCb experiment. Decays involving a $D^{*0}$ or $D^{*-}_s$ meson are analysed by reconstructing only the $D^0$ or $D^-_s$ decay products. This paper presents the first measurement of $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{*-}_s D^0)$ and $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{-}_s D^{*0})$, and the most precise measurement of the other five $CP$ asymmetries. There is no evidence of $CP$ violation in any of the analysed decays. Additionally, two ratios between branching fractions of selected decays are measured.The CP asymmetries of seven B$^{−}$ decays to two charm mesons are measured using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 fb$^{−1}$ of proton-proton collisions collected by the LHCb experiment. Decays involving a D$^{*0}$ or ${D}_s^{\ast -}$ meson are analysed by reconstructing only the D$^{0}$ or ${D}_s^{-}$ decay products. This paper presents the first measurement of $\mathcal{A} ^{CP}$(B$^{−}$→${D}_s^{\ast -}$D$^{0}$) and $\mathcal{A} ^{CP}$(B$^{−}$→${D}_s^{-}$D$^{∗0}$), and the most precise measurement of the other five CP asymmetries. There is no evidence of CP violation in any of the analysed decays. Additionally, two ratios between branching fractions of selected decays are measured.[graphic not available: see fulltext]The $CP$ asymmetries of seven $B^-$ decays to two charm mesons are measured using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $9\text{ fb}^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions collected by the LHCb experiment. Decays involving a $D^{*0}$ or $D^{*-}_s$ meson are analysed by reconstructing only the $D^0$ or $D^-_s$ decay products. This paper presents the first measurement of $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{*-}_s D^0)$ and $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{-}_s D^{*0})$, and the most precise measurement of the other five $CP$ asymmetries. There is no evidence of $CP$ violation in any of the analysed decays. Additionally, two ratios between branching fractions of selected decays are measured

Helium identification with LHCb

The identification of helium nuclei at LHCb is achieved using a method based on measurements of ionisation losses in the silicon sensors and timing measurements in the Outer Tracker drift tubes. The background from photon conversions is reduced using the RICH detectors and an isolation requirement. The method is developed using pp collision data at √(s) = 13 TeV recorded by the LHCb experiment in the years 2016 to 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.5 fb-1. A total of around 105 helium and antihelium candidates are identified with negligible background contamination. The helium identification efficiency is estimated to be approximately 50% with a corresponding background rejection rate of up to O(10^12). These results demonstrate the feasibility of a rich programme of measurements of QCD and astrophysics interest involving light nuclei