Widespread Infilling of Tidal Channels and Navigable Waterways in the Human-Modified Tidal Deltaplain of Southwest Bangladesh

Since the 1960s, ~5000 km2 of tidal deltaplain in southwest Bangladesh has been embanked and converted to densely inhabited, agricultural islands (i.e., polders). This landscape is juxtaposed to the adjacent Sundarbans, a pristine mangrove forest, both well connected by a dense network of tidal channels that effectively convey water and sediment throughout the region. The extensive embanking in poldered areas, however, has greatly reduced the tidal prism (i.e., volume of water) transported through local channels. We reveal that \u3e600 km of these major waterways have infilled in recent decades, converting to land through enhanced sedimentation and the direct blocking of waterways by embankments and sluice gates. Nearly all of the observed closures (~98%) have occurred along the embanked polder systems, with no comparable changes occurring in channels of the Sundarbans (2 of new land in the last 40–50 years, the rate of which, ~2 km2/yr, offsets the 4 km2/yr that is eroded at the coast, and is equivalent to ~20% of the new land produced naturally at the Ganges-Brahmaputra tidal rivermouth. Most of this new land, called ‘khas’ in Bengali, has been reclaimed for agriculture or aquaculture, contributing to the local economy. However, benefits are tempered by the loss of navigable waterways for commerce, transportation, and fishing, as well as the forced rerouting of tidal waters and sediments necessary to sustain this low-lying landscape against rising sea level. A more sustainable delta will require detailed knowledge of the consequences of these hydrodynamic changes to support more scientifically-grounded management of water, sediment, and tidal energy distribution

Observations and scaling of tidal mass transport across the lower Ganges–Brahmaputra delta plain: implications for delta management and sustainability

The landscape of southwest Bangladesh, a region constructed primarily by fluvial processes associated with the Ganges River and Brahmaputra River, is now maintained almost exclusively by tidal processes as the fluvial system has migrated east and eliminated the most direct fluvial input. In natural areas such as the Sundarbans National Forest, year-round inundation during spring high tides delivers sufficient sediment that enables vertical accretion to keep pace with relative sea-level rise. However, recent human modification of the landscape in the form of embankment construction has terminated this pathway of sediment delivery for much of the region, resulting in a startling elevation imbalance, with inhabited areas often sitting &gt;1&thinsp;m below mean high water. Restoring this landscape, or preventing land loss in the natural system, requires an understanding of how rates of water and sediment flux vary across timescales ranging from hours to months. In this study, we combine time series observations of water level, salinity, and suspended sediment concentration with ship-based measurements of large tidal-channel hydrodynamics and sediment transport. To capture the greatest possible range of variability, cross-channel transects designed to encompass a 12.4&thinsp;h tidal cycle were performed in both dry and wet seasons during spring and neap tides. Regional suspended sediment concentration begins to increase in August, coincident with a decrease in local salinity, indicating the arrival of the sediment-laden, freshwater plume of the combined Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna rivers. We observe profound seasonality in sediment transport, despite comparatively modest seasonal variability in the magnitude of water discharge. These observations emphasize the importance of seasonal sediment delivery from the main-stem rivers to this remote tidal region. On tidal timescales, spring tides transport an order of magnitude more sediment than neap tides in both the wet and dry seasons. In aggregate, sediment transport is flood oriented, likely as a result of tidal pumping. Finally, we note that rates of sediment and water discharge in the tidal channels are of the same scale as the annually averaged values for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. These observations provide context for examining the relative importance of fluvial and tidal processes in what has been defined as a quintessentially tidally influenced delta in the classification scheme of Galloway (1975). These data also inform critical questions regarding the timing and magnitude of sediment delivery to the region, which are especially important in predicting and preparing for responses of the natural system to ongoing environmental change.</p

The sedimentology of river confluences

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Channel confluences are key nodes within large river networks, and yet surprisingly little is known about their spatial and temporal evolution. Moreover, because confluences are associated with vertical scour that typically extends to several times the mean channel depth, the deposits associated with such scours should have a high preservation potential within the rock record. Paradoxically, such scours are rarely observed, and their preservation and sedimentological interpretation are poorly understood. The present study details results from a physically‐based morphodynamic model that is applied to simulate the evolution and alluvial architecture of large river junctions. Boundary conditions within the model were defined to approximate the junction of the Ganges and Jamuna rivers, Bangladesh, with the model output being supplemented by geophysical datasets collected at this junction. The numerical simulations reveal several distinct styles of sedimentary fill that are related to the morphodynamic behaviour of bars, confluence scour downstream of braid bars, bend scour and major junction scour. Comparison with existing, largely qualitative, conceptual models reveals that none of these can be applied simply, although elements of each are evident in the deposits generated by the numerical simulation and observed in the geophysical data. The characteristics of the simulated scour deposits are found to vary according to the degree of reworking caused by channel migration, a factor not considered adequately in current conceptual models of confluence sedimentology. The alluvial architecture of major junction scours is thus characterized by the prevalence of erosion surfaces in conjunction with the thickest depositional sets. Confluence scour downstream of braid bar and bend scour sites may preserve some large individual sets, but these locations are typically characterized by lower average set thickness compared to major junction scour and by a lack of large‐scale erosional surfaces. Areas of deposition not related to any of the specific scour types highlighted above record the thinnest depositional sets. This variety in the alluvial architecture of scours may go some way towards explaining the paradox of ancient junction scours, that while abundant large scours are likely in the rock record, they have been reported rarely. The present results outline the likely range of confluence sedimentology and will serve as a new tool for recognizing and interpreting these deposits in the ancient fluvial record.This work was funded by a UK Natural Environment Research Council award to Sambrook Smith (NE/I023228/1), Bull (NE/I023864/1) and Nicholas (NE/I023120/1)

The planform mobility of river channel confluences: Insights from analysis of remotely sensed imagery

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.River channel confluences are widely acknowledged as important geomorphological nodes that control the downstream routing of water and sediment, and which are locations for the preservation of thick fluvial deposits overlying a basal scour. Despite their importance, there has been little study of the stratigraphic characteristics of river junctions, or the role of confluence morphodynamics in influencing stratigraphic character and preservation potential. As a result, although it is known that confluences can migrate through time, models of confluence geomorphology and sedimentology are usually presented from the perspective that the confluence remains at a fixed location. This is problematic for a number of reasons, not least of which is the continuing debate over whether it is possible to discriminate between scour that has been generated by autocyclic processes (such as confluence scour) and that driven by allocyclic controls (such as sea-level change). This paper investigates the spatial mobility of river confluences by using the 40-year record of Landsat Imagery to elucidate the styles, rates of change and areal extent over which large river confluence scours may migrate. On the basis of these observations, a new classification of the types of confluence scour is proposed and applied to the Amazon and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. This analysis demonstrates that the drivers of confluence mobility are broadly the same as those that drive channel change more generally. Thus in the GBM basin, a high sediment supply, large variability in monsoonal driven discharge and easily erodible bank materials result in a catchment where over 80% of large confluences are mobile over this 40-year window; conversely this figure is < 40% for the Amazon basin. These results highlight that: i) the potential areal extent of confluence scours is much greater than previously assumed, with the location of some confluences on the Jamuna (Brahmaputra) River migrating over a distance of 20 times the tributary channel width; ii) extensive migration in the confluence location is more common than currently assumed, and iii) confluence mobility is often tied to the lithological and hydrological characteristics of the drainage basins that determine sediment yield.This work was funded by NERC grant NE/I023228/1 to Sambrook Smith, Bull, Nicholas and Best

Impacts of natural and human drivers on the multi-decadal morphological evolution of tidally-influenced deltas

The world's deltas are at risk of being drowned due to rising relative sea levels as a result of climate change, decreasing supplies of fluvial sediment, and human responses to these changes. This paper analyses how delta morphology evolves over multi-decadal timescales under environmental change using a process-based model. Model simulations over 10^2 years are used to explore the influence of three key classes of environmental change, both individually and in combination: (i) varying combinations of fluvial water and sediment discharges; (ii) varying rates of relative sea-level rise; and (iii) selected human interventions within the delta, comprising polder-dykes and cross-dams. The results indicate that tidal asymmetry and rate of sediment supply together affect residual flows and delta morphodynamics (indicated by sub-aerial delta area, rates of progradation and aggradation). When individual drivers of change act in combination, delta building processes such as the distribution of sediment flux, aggradation, and progradation are disrupted by the presence of isolated polder-dykes or cross-dams. This suggests that such interventions, unless undertaken at a very large scale, can lead to unsustainable delta building processes. Our findings can inform management choices in real-world tidally-influenced deltas, while the methodology can provide insights into other dynamic morphological systems

Flushing History as a Hydrogeological Control on the Regional Distribution of Arsenic in Shallow Groundwater of the Bengal Basin

Whereas serious health consequences of widespread consumption of groundwater elevated in As have been documented in several South Asian countries, the mechanisms responsible for As mobilization in reducing aquifers remain poorly understood. We document here a previously unrecognized and consistent relationship between dissolved As concentrations in reducing groundwater and the phosphate-mobilizable As content of aquifer sediment for a set of precisely depth-matched samples from across Bangladesh. The relationship holds across nearly 3 orders of magnitude in As concentrations and suggests that regional as well as local patterns of dissolved As in shallow groundwater are set by the solid phase according to a remarkably constant ratio of ∼250 μg/L dissolved As per 1 mg/kg P-mobilizable As. We use this relationship in a simple model of groundwater recharge to propose that the distribution of groundwater As in shallow aquifers of the Bengal Basin could primarily reflect the different flushing histories of sand formations deposited in the region over the past several thousand years

Impact of local recharge on arsenic concentrations in shallow aquifers inferred from the electromagnetic conductivity of soils in Araihazar, Bangladesh

The high-degree of spatial variability of dissolved As levels in shallow aquifers of the Bengal Basin has been well documented but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We compare here As concentrations measured in groundwater pumped from 4700 wells <22 m (75 ft) deep across a 25 km2 area of Bangladesh with variations in the nature of surface soils inferred from 18,500 measurements of frequency domain electromagnetic induction. A set of 14 hand auger cores recovered from the same area indicate that a combination of grain size and the conductivity of soil water dominate the electromagnetic signal. The relationship between pairs of individual EM conductivity and dissolved As measurements within a distance of 50 m is significant but highly scattered (r2 = 0.12; n = 614). Concentrations of As tend to be lower in shallow aquifers underlying sandy soils and higher below finer-grained and high conductivity soils. Variations in EM conductivity account for nearly half the variance of the rate of increase of As concentration with depth, however, when the data are averaged over a distance of 50 m (r2 = 0.50; n = 145). The association is interpreted as an indication that groundwater recharge through permeable sandy soils prevents As concentrations from rising in shallow reducing groundwater

Synthesis of the distribution of subsidence of the lower Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, Bangladesh

Deltas, the low-lying land at river mouths, are sensitive to the delicate balance between sea level rise, land subsidence and sedimentation. Bangladesh and the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (GBD) have been highlighted as a region at risk from sea-level rise, but reliable estimates of land subsidence have been limited. While early studies suggested high rates of relative sea-level rise, recent papers estimate more modest rates. Our objective is to better quantify the magnitude, spatial variability, and depth variation of sediment compaction and land subsidence in the lower GBD to better evaluate the processes controlling them and the pattern of relative sea level rise in this vulnerable region. We combine subsidence and compaction estimates from hand-drilled tube wells and historic sites (1–5 mm/y), GNSS and river gauges (4–8 mm/y) and RSET-MH and borehole vertical strainmeters (9–10 mm/y) in SW Bangladesh. The differences between the different types of measurements reflect the different timescales, spatial distribution and depth sensitivity of the different observations. Rates are lower for times >300y providing data on the timescale of compaction. We also observe differences related to the degree to which different devices measure shallow and deep subsidence. Higher values reflect a greater component of subsidence from young shallow deposits from soil compaction and organic matter degradation. Thus, we observe different rates for different environments and physical settings. These differences indicate that in planning adaptation for rising sea level, hard construction with a solid foundation may experience different subsidence rates than open fields or reclaimed land with recent natural or anthropogenic sedimentation. Significance statement: Land subsidence increases the impact of sea level rise. We combine six different types of measurements that examine land subsidence in coastal Bangladesh. The results show that causes of subsidence, including compaction of the sediments varies both spatially and with depth, and that compaction and organic matter degradation from young shallow deposits is a significant contribution to subsidence. This suggests that hard construction with a solid foundation, such as buildings and embankments, may experience a lower subsidence rates than open fields or reclaimed land with recent natural or anthropogenic sedimentation

Flushing History as a Hydrogeological Control on the Regional Distribution of Arsenic in Shallow Groundwater of the Bengal Basin

Whereas serious health consequences of widespread consumption of groundwater elevated in As have been documented in several South Asian countries, the mechanisms responsible for As mobilization in reducing aquifers remain poorly understood. We document here a previously unrecognized and consistent relationship between dissolved As concentrations in reducing groundwater and the phosphate-mobilizable As content of aquifer sediment for a set of precisely depth-matched samples from across Bangladesh. The relationship holds across nearly 3 orders of magnitude in As concentrations and suggests that regional as well as local patterns of dissolved As in shallow groundwater are set by the solid phase according to a remarkably constant ratio of ∼250 μg/L dissolved As per 1 mg/kg P-mobilizable As. We use this relationship in a simple model of groundwater recharge to propose that the distribution of groundwater As in shallow aquifers of the Bengal Basin could primarily reflect the different flushing histories of sand formations deposited in the region over the past several thousand years

Sediment Delivery to Sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta Under Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities