Forecasting stock prices using a novel filtering-combination technique: Application to the Pakistan stock exchange

Traders and investors find predicting stock market values an intriguing subject to study in stock exchange markets. Accurate projections lead to high financial revenues and protect investors from market risks. This research proposes a unique filtering-combination approach to increase forecast accuracy. The first step is to filter the original series of stock market prices into two new series, consisting of a nonlinear trend series in the long run and a stochastic component of a series, using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Next, all possible filtered combination models are considered to get the forecasts of each filtered series with linear and nonlinear time series forecasting models. Then, the forecast results of each filtered series are combined to extract the final forecasts. The proposed filtering-combination technique is applied to Pakistan's daily stock market price index data from January 2, 2013 to February 17, 2023. To assess the proposed forecasting methodology's performance in terms of model consistency, efficiency and accuracy, we analyze models in different data set ratios and calculate four mean errors, correlation coefficients and directional mean accuracy. Last, the authors recommend testing the proposed filtering-combination approach for additional complicated financial time series data in the future to achieve highly accurate, efficient and consistent forecasts

Multi-step ahead ozone level forecasting using a component-based technique: A case study in Lima, Peru

The rise in global ozone levels over the last few decades has harmed human health. This problem exists in several cities throughout South America due to dangerous levels of particulate matter in the air, particularly during the winter season, making it a public health issue. Lima, Peru, is one of the ten cities in South America with the worst levels of air pollution. Thus, efficient and precise modeling and forecasting are critical for ozone concentrations in Lima. The focus is on developing precise forecasting models to anticipate ozone concentrations, providing timely information for adequate public health protection and environmental management. This work used hourly O$_{3}$ data in metropolitan areas for multi-step-ahead (one-, two-, three-, and seven-day-ahead) O$_{3}$ forecasts. A multiple linear regression model was used to represent the deterministic portion, and four-time series models, autoregressive, nonparametric autoregressive, autoregressive moving average, and nonlinear neural network autoregressive, were used to describe the stochastic component. The various horizon out-of-sample forecast results for the considered data suggest that the proposed component-based forecasting technique gives a highly consistent, accurate, and efficient gain. This may be expanded to other districts of Lima, different regions of Peru, and even the global level to assess the efficacy of the proposed component-based modeling and forecasting approach. Finally, no analysis has been undertaken using a component-based estimation to forecast ozone concentrations in Lima in a multi-step-ahead manner

Compilation and recovery of technical-scientific information and an agile deep-dive into knowledge on the Agro Hidro network-CRITIC@.

The CRITIC@ proposal, as a component of the project "Impacts of agricultural use and climate change on water resources in different Brazilian eco-regions: diagnosis and mitigating strategies" - AgroHidro, subsidized by Embrapa, was to concentrate the systematic analysis and organization of the information used and produced by the AgroHidro Network, made up of Brazilian researchers

Compilation and recovery of technical-scientific information and an agile deep-dive into knowledge on the Agro Hidro network-CRITIC@.

The CRITIC@ proposal, as a component of the project "Impacts of agricultural use and climate change on water resources in different Brazilian eco-regions: diagnosis and mitigating strategies" - AgroHidro, subsidized by Embrapa, was to concentrate the systematic analysis and organization of the information used and produced by the AgroHidro Network, made up of Brazilian researchers

Compilação e recuperação de informações técnico-científicas e indução ao conhecimento de forma ágil na Rede AgroHidro - CRITIC@.

A proposta do CRITIC@, como projeto componente do projeto "Impactos do uso agrícola e das mudanças climáticas sobre os recursos hídricos em diferentes ecorregiões brasileiras: diagnose e estratégias mitigadoras" - AgroHidro, subsidiado pela Embrapa, foi concentrar as ações de análise e organização sistematizada da informação utilizada e produzida pela Rede AgroHidro - formada por pesquisadores brasileiros. Procurou-se melhorar a gestão do conhecimento técnico-científico em recursos hídricos e sua aplicação na adaptação à mudança do clima, fornecendo um ferramental de análise da informação, que facilitasse, não apenas, a identificação de bibliografia e outras fontes de material de divulgação, mas que permitisse o cruzamento de informações de diversas fontes, a fim de avaliar o caminho percorrido pela rede em PD&I e as metodologias com maior potencial de adaptação aos impactos da mudança do clima (Figura 1)

Higher education in nursing: the faculty work process in different institutional contexts

Objective To analyze the characteristics of faculty work in nursing higher education. Method An exploratory qualitative study with a theoretical-methodological framework of dialectical and historical materialism. The faculty work process was adopted as the analytical category, grounded on conceptions of work and professionalism. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 24 faculty members from three higher education institutions in the city of São Paulo, classified according to the typology of institutional contexts. Results The faculty members at these higher education institutions are a heterogeneous group, under different working conditions. Intensification and precarious conditions of the faculty work is common to all three contexts, although there are important distinctions in the practices related to teaching, research and extension. Conclusion Faculty professionalization can be the starting point for analyzing and coping with such a distinct reality of faculty work and practice

A systematic review of clinical decision support systems for antimicrobial management: are we failing to investigate these interventions appropriately?

Objectives Clinical decision support systems (CDSS) for antimicrobial management can support clinicians to optimize antimicrobial therapy. We reviewed all original literature (qualitative and quantitative) to understand the current scope of CDSS for antimicrobial management and analyse existing methods used to evaluate and report such systems. Method PRISMA guidelines were followed. Medline, EMBASE, HMIC Health and Management and Global Health databases were searched from 1 January 1980 to 31 October 2015. All primary research studies describing CDSS for antimicrobial management in adults in primary or secondary care were included. For qualitative studies, thematic synthesis was performed. Quality was assessed using Integrated quality Criteria for the Review Of Multiple Study designs (ICROMS) criteria. CDSS reporting was assessed against a reporting framework for behaviour change intervention implementation. Results Fifty-eight original articles were included describing 38 independent CDSS. The majority of systems target antimicrobial prescribing (29/38;76%), are platforms integrated with electronic medical records (28/38;74%), and have a rules-based infrastructure providing decision support (29/38;76%). On evaluation against the intervention reporting framework, CDSS studies fail to report consideration of the non-expert, end-user workflow. They have narrow focus, such as antimicrobial selection, and use proxy outcome measures. Engagement with CDSS by clinicians was poor. Conclusion Greater consideration of the factors that drive non-expert decision making must be considered when designing CDSS interventions. Future work must aim to expand CDSS beyond simply selecting appropriate antimicrobials with clear and systematic reporting frameworks for CDSS interventions developed to address current gaps identified in the reporting of evidence

ANÁLISE DO USO DO SLEEVE GÁSTRICO NO TRATAMENTO DA OBESIDADE MÓRBIDA

The present study aims to analyze the effectiveness and safety of Sleeve Gastrectomy as a surgical technique for treating morbid obesity, comparing its outcomes with other bariatric methods and evaluating its impact on patients' quality of life. This research utilized a comprehensive literature review, encompassing studies published between 2000 and 2024 in English, Portuguese, and Spanish. Databases such as PubMed, Google Scholar, SciELO, as well as specialized scientific journals and academic repositories were consulted. The results indicate that Sleeve Gastrectomy is an effective technique for weight loss, showing outcomes comparable to other bariatric surgeries such as Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass. Literature analysis revealed that Sleeve Gastrectomy provides significant short-term and long-term weight loss with lower incidence of postoperative complications compared to other techniques. Furthermore, patients' quality of life improved considerably after surgery, covering physical, psychological, and social aspects. It is concluded that Sleeve Gastrectomy is a viable and safe surgical option for treating morbid obesity, offering significant advantages in terms of weight loss and patient quality of life. However, further long-term studies are needed to fully compare this technique with other bariatric treatment modalities and assess the maintenance of weight loss and improvement of associated comorbidities.O presente estudo visa analisar a eficácia e a segurança do Sleeve Gástrico como técnica cirúrgica no tratamento da obesidade mórbida, comparando seus resultados com outros métodos bariátricos e avaliando seu impacto na qualidade de vida dos pacientes. Esta pesquisa utilizou uma revisão da literatura abrangente, incluindo estudos publicados entre 2000 e 2024 em inglês, português e espanhol. Foram consultadas bases de dados como PubMed, Google Acadêmico, SciELO, além de revistas científicas especializadas e repositórios acadêmicos. Os resultados indicam que o Sleeve Gástrico é uma técnica eficaz para a perda de peso, apresentando resultados comparáveis a outras cirurgias bariátricas como o Bypass Gástrico em Y de Roux. A análise da literatura revelou que o Sleeve Gástrico proporciona uma perda de peso significativa a curto e longo prazo, com menor incidência de complicações pós-operatórias em comparação com outras técnicas. Além disso, a qualidade de vida dos pacientes melhorou consideravelmente após a cirurgia, abrangendo aspectos físicos, psicológicos e sociais. Conclui-se que o Sleeve Gástrico é uma opção cirúrgica viável e segura para o tratamento da obesidade mórbida, oferecendo vantagens significativas em termos de perda de peso e qualidade de vida dos pacientes. No entanto, é necessário mais estudo de longo prazo para comparar plenamente esta técnica com outras modalidades de tratamento bariátrico e avaliar a manutenção da perda de peso e a melhoria das comorbidades associadas

Geography and ecology shape the phylogenetic composition of Amazonian tree communities.

Aim Amazonia hosts more tree species from numerous evolutionary lineages, both young and ancient, than any other biogeographic region. Previous studies have shown that tree lineages colonized multiple edaphic environments and dispersed widely across Amazonia, leading to a hypothesis, which we test, that lineages should not be strongly associated with either geographic regions or edaphic forest types. Location Amazonia. Taxon Angiosperms (Magnoliids; Monocots; Eudicots). Methods Data for the abundance of 5082 tree species in 1989 plots were combined with a mega-phylogeny. We applied evolutionary ordination to assess how phylogenetic composition varies across Amazonia. We used variation partitioning and Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) to test and quantify the separate and joint contributions of spatial and environmental variables to explain the phylogenetic composition of plots. We tested the indicator value of lineages for geographic regions and edaphic forest types and mapped associations onto the phylogeny. Results In the terra firme and várzea forest types, the phylogenetic composition varies by geographic region, but the igapó and white-sand forest types retain a unique evolutionary signature regardless of region. Overall, we find that soil chemistry, climate and topography explain 24% of the variation in phylogenetic composition, with 79% of that variation being spatially structured (R2 = 19% overall for combined spatial/environmental effects). The phylogenetic composition also shows substantial spatial patterns not related to the environmental variables we quantified (R2 = 28%). A greater number of lineages were significant indicators of geographic regions than forest types. Main Conclusion Numerous tree lineages, including some ancient ones (>66 Ma), show strong associations with geographic regions and edaphic forest types of Amazonia. This shows that specialization in specific edaphic environments has played a long-standing role in the evolutionary assembly of Amazonian forests. Furthermore, many lineages, even those that have dispersed across Amazonia, dominate within a specific region, likely because of phylogenetically conserved niches for environmental conditions that are prevalent within regions.Na publicação: Joice Ferreira