Evaluating Surveillance Strategies for the Early Detection of Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Infections

In recent years, the early detection of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in poultry has become increasingly important, given their potential to mutate into highly pathogenic viruses. However, evaluations of LPAI surveillance have mainly focused on prevalence and not on the ability to act as an early warning system. We used a simulation model based on data from Italian LPAI epidemics in turkeys to evaluate different surveillance strategies in terms of their performance as early warning systems. The strategies differed in terms of sample size, sampling frequency, diagnostic tests, and whether or not active surveillance (i.e., routine laboratory testing of farms) was performed, and were also tested under different epidemiological scenarios. We compared surveillance strategies by simulating within-farm outbreaks. The output measures were the proportion of infected farms that are detected and the farm reproduction number (Rh). The first one provides an indication of the sensitivity of the surveillance system to detect within-farm infections, whereas Rh reflects the effectiveness of outbreak detection (i.e., if detection occurs soon enough to bring an epidemic under control). Increasing the sampling frequency was the most effective means of improving the timeliness of detection (i.e., it occurs earlier), whereas increasing the sample size increased the likelihood of detection. Surveillance was only effective in preventing an epidemic if actions were taken within two days of sampling. The strategies were not affected by the quality of the diagnostic test, although performing both serological and virological assays increased the sensitivity of active surveillance. Early detection of LPAI outbreaks in turkeys can be achieved by increasing the sampling frequency for active surveillance, though very frequent sampling may not be sustainable in the long term. We suggest that, when no LPAI virus is circulating yet and there is a low risk of virus introduction, a less frequent sampling approach might be admitted, provided that the surveillance is intensified as soon as the first outbreak is detected

Project overview and update on WEAVE: the next generation wide-field spectroscopy facility for the William Herschel Telescope

We present an overview of and status report on the WEAVE next-generation spectroscopy facility for the William Herschel Telescope (WHT). WEAVE principally targets optical ground-based follow up of upcoming ground-based (LOFAR) and space-based (Gaia) surveys. WEAVE is a multi-object and multi-IFU facility utilizing a new 2-degree prime focus field of view at the WHT, with a buffered pick-and-place positioner system hosting 1000 multi-object (MOS) fibres, 20 integral field units, or a single large IFU for each observation. The fibres are fed to a single spectrograph, with a pair of 8k(spectral) x 6k (spatial) pixel cameras, located within the WHT GHRIL enclosure on the telescope Nasmyth platform, supporting observations at R~5000 over the full 370-1000nm wavelength range in a single exposure, or a high resolution mode with limited coverage in each arm at R~20000. The project is now in the final design and early procurement phase, with commissioning at the telescope expected in 2017.Comment: 11 pages, 11 Figures, Summary of a presentation to Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation 201

Overview of Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Project

The objective of the Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) projects is to mature a 3-D Woven Thermal Protection System (TPS) to Technical Readiness Level (TRL) 6 to support future NASA missions to destinations such as Venus and Saturn. Destinations that have extreme entry environments with heat fluxes up to 5000 watts per square centimeter and pressures up to 5 atmospheres, entry environments that NASA has not flown since Pioneer-Venus and Galileo. The scope of the project is broad and can be split into roughly four areas, Manufacturing/Integration, Structural Testing and Analysis, Thermal Testing and Analysis and Documentation. Manufactruing/Integration covers from raw materials, piece part fabrication to final integration on a 1-meter base diameter 45-degree sphere cone Engineering Test Unit (ETU). A key aspect of the project was to transfer as much of the manufacturing technology to industry in preparation to support future mission infusion. The forming, infusion and machining approaches were transferred to Fiber Materials Inc. and FMI then fabricated the piece parts from which the ETU was manufactured. The base 3D-woven material consists of a dual layer weave with a high density outer layer to manage recession in the system and a lower density, lower thermal conductivity inner layer to manage the heat load. At the start of the project it was understood that due to weaving limitations the heat shield was going to be manufactured from a series of tiles. And it was recognized that the development of a seam solution that met the structural and thermal requirements of the system was going to be the most challenging aspect of the project. It was also recognized that the seam design would drive the final integration approach and therefore the integration of the ETU was kept in-house within NASA. A final seam concept has been successfully developed and implemented on the ETU and will be discussed. The structural testing and analysis covers from characterization of the different layers of the infused material as functions of weave direction and temperature, to sub-component level testing such as 4-pt bend testing at sub-ambient and elevated temperature. ETU test results are used to validate the structural models developed using the element and sub-component level tests. Given the seam has to perform both structurally and aerothermally during entry a novel 4-pt bend test fixture was developed allowing articles to be tested while the front surface is heated with a laser. These tests are intended to establish the system's structural capability during entry. A broad range of aerothermal tests (arcjet tests) are being performed to develop material response models for predicting the required TPS thickness to meet a mission's needs and to evaluate failure modes. These tests establish the capability of the system and assure robustness of the system during entry. The final aspect of the project is to develop a comprehensive Design and Data Book such that a future mission will have the information necessary to adopt the technology. This presentation will provide an overview and status of the project and describe the status of the tehnology maturation level for the inner and outer planet as well as earth entry sample return missions

Identification of the top TESS objects of interest for atmospheric characterization of transiting exoplanets with JWST

Funding: Funding for the TESS mission is provided by NASA's Science Mission Directorate. This work makes use of observations from the LCOGT network. Part of the LCOGT telescope time was granted by NOIRLab through the Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP). MSIP is funded by NSF. This paper is based on observations made with the MuSCAT3 instrument, developed by the Astrobiology Center and under financial support by JSPS KAKENHI (grant No. JP18H05439) and JST PRESTO (grant No. JPMJPR1775), at Faulkes Telescope North on Maui, HI, operated by the Las Cumbres Observatory. This paper makes use of data from the MEarth Project, which is a collaboration between Harvard University and the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory. The MEarth Project acknowledges funding from the David and Lucile Packard Fellowship for Science and Engineering, the National Science Foundation under grant Nos. AST-0807690, AST-1109468, AST-1616624 and AST-1004488 (Alan T. Waterman Award), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant No. 80NSSC18K0476 issued through the XRP Program, and the John Templeton Foundation. C.M. would like to gratefully acknowledge the entire Dragonfly Telephoto Array team, and Bob Abraham in particular, for allowing their telescope bright time to be put to use observing exoplanets. B.J.H. acknowledges support from the Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST) program (grant No. 80NSSC20K1551) and support by NASA under grant No. 80GSFC21M0002. K.A.C. and C.N.W. acknowledge support from the TESS mission via subaward s3449 from MIT. D.R.C. and C.A.C. acknowledge support from NASA through the XRP grant No. 18-2XRP18_2-0007. C.A.C. acknowledges that this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). S.Z. and A.B. acknowledge support from the Israel Ministry of Science and Technology (grant No. 3-18143). The research leading to these results has received funding from the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation. TRAPPIST is funded by the Belgian Fund for Scientific Research (Fond National de la Recherche Scientifique, FNRS) under the grant No. PDR T.0120.21. The postdoctoral fellowship of K.B. is funded by F.R.S.-FNRS grant No. T.0109.20 and by the Francqui Foundation. H.P.O.'s contribution has been carried out within the framework of the NCCR PlanetS supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation under grant Nos. 51NF40_182901 and 51NF40_205606. F.J.P. acknowledges financial support from the grant No. CEX2021-001131-S funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033. A.J. acknowledges support from ANID—Millennium Science Initiative—ICN12_009 and from FONDECYT project 1210718. Z.L.D. acknowledges the MIT Presidential Fellowship and that this material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under grant No. 1745302. P.R. acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation grant No. 1952545. This work is partly supported by JSPS KAKENHI grant Nos. JP17H04574, JP18H05439, JP21K20376; JST CREST grant No. JPMJCR1761; and Astrobiology Center SATELLITE Research project AB022006. This publication benefits from the support of the French Community of Belgium in the context of the FRIA Doctoral Grant awarded to M.T. D.D. acknowledges support from TESS Guest Investigator Program grant Nos. 80NSSC22K1353, 80NSSC22K0185, and 80NSSC23K0769. A.B. acknowledges the support of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University Program of Development. T.D. was supported in part by the McDonnell Center for the Space Sciences. V.K. acknowledges support from the youth scientific laboratory project, topic FEUZ-2020-0038.JWST has ushered in an era of unprecedented ability to characterize exoplanetary atmospheres. While there are over 5000 confirmed planets, more than 4000 Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) planet candidates are still unconfirmed and many of the best planets for atmospheric characterization may remain to be identified. We present a sample of TESS planets and planet candidates that we identify as “best-in-class” for transmission and emission spectroscopy with JWST. These targets are sorted into bins across equilibrium temperature Teq and planetary radius Rp and are ranked by a transmission and an emission spectroscopy metric (TSM and ESM, respectively) within each bin. We perform cuts for expected signal size and stellar brightness to remove suboptimal targets for JWST. Of the 194 targets in the resulting sample, 103 are unconfirmed TESS planet candidates, also known as TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs). We perform vetting and statistical validation analyses on these 103 targets to determine which are likely planets and which are likely false positives, incorporating ground-based follow-up from the TESS Follow-up Observation Program to aid the vetting and validation process. We statistically validate 18 TOIs, marginally validate 31 TOIs to varying levels of confidence, deem 29 TOIs likely false positives, and leave the dispositions for four TOIs as inconclusive. Twenty-one of the 103 TOIs were confirmed independently over the course of our analysis. We intend for this work to serve as a community resource and motivate formal confirmation and mass measurements of each validated planet. We encourage more detailed analysis of individual targets by the community.Peer reviewe

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Burnout among surgeons before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an international survey

Background: SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had many significant impacts within the surgical realm, and surgeons have been obligated to reconsider almost every aspect of daily clinical practice. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study reported in compliance with the CHERRIES guidelines and conducted through an online platform from June 14th to July 15th, 2020. The primary outcome was the burden of burnout during the pandemic indicated by the validated Shirom-Melamed Burnout Measure. Results: Nine hundred fifty-four surgeons completed the survey. The median length of practice was 10 years; 78.2% included were male with a median age of 37 years old, 39.5% were consultants, 68.9% were general surgeons, and 55.7% were affiliated with an academic institution. Overall, there was a significant increase in the mean burnout score during the pandemic; longer years of practice and older age were significantly associated with less burnout. There were significant reductions in the median number of outpatient visits, operated cases, on-call hours, emergency visits, and research work, so, 48.2% of respondents felt that the training resources were insufficient. The majority (81.3%) of respondents reported that their hospitals were included in the management of COVID-19, 66.5% felt their roles had been minimized; 41% were asked to assist in non-surgical medical practices, and 37.6% of respondents were included in COVID-19 management. Conclusions: There was a significant burnout among trainees. Almost all aspects of clinical and research activities were affected with a significant reduction in the volume of research, outpatient clinic visits, surgical procedures, on-call hours, and emergency cases hindering the training. Trial registration: The study was registered on clicaltrials.gov "NCT04433286" on 16/06/2020

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Construction progress of WEAVE: the next generation wide-field spectroscopy facility for the William Herschel Telescope

We present an update on the overall construction progress of the WEAVE next-generation spectroscopy facility for the William Herschel Telescope (WHT), now that all the major fabrication contracts are in place. We also present a summary of the current planning behind the 5-year initial phase of survey operations, and some detailed end-to-end science simulations that have been effected to evaluate the final on-sky performance after data processing. WEAVE will provide optical ground-based follow up of ground-based (LOFAR) and space-based (Gaia) surveys. WEAVE is a multi-object and multi-IFU facility utilizing a new 2-degree prime focus field of view at the WHT, with a buffered pick-and-place positioner system hosting 1000 multi-object (MOS) fibres, 20 integral field units, or a single large IFU for each observation. The fibres are fed to a single (dual-beam) spectrograph, with total of 16k spectral pixels, located within the WHT GHRIL enclosure on the telescope Nasmyth platform, supporting observations at R 5000 over the full 370-1000nm wavelength range in a single exposure, or a high resolution mode with limited coverage in each arm at R 20000. The project has experienced some delays in procurement and now has first light expected for the middle of 2019

Two warm Neptunes transiting HIP 9618 revealed by TESS and Cheops

peer reviewedHIP 9618 (HD 12572, TOI-1471, TIC 306263608) is a bright (G = 9.0 mag) solar analogue. TESS photometry revealed the star to have two candidate planets with radii of 3.9 ± 0.044 R (HIP 9618 b) and 3.343 ± 0.039 R (HIP 9618 c). While the 20.77291 d period of HIP 9618 b was measured unambiguously, HIP 9618 c showed only two transits separated by a 680-d gap in the time series, leaving many possibilities for the period. To solve this issue, CHEOPS performed targeted photometry of period aliases to attempt to recover the true period of planet c, and successfully determined the true period to be 52.56349 d. High-resolution spectroscopy with HARPS-N, SOPHIE, and CAFE revealed a mass of 10.0 ± 3.1M for HIP 9618 b, which, according to our interior structure models, corresponds to a 6.8 ± 1.4 per cent gas fraction. HIP 9618 c appears to have a lower mass than HIP 9618 b, with a 3-sigma upper limit of 50 d, opening the door for the atmospheric characterization of warm (Teq < 750 K) sub-Neptunes