Sensitivity analysis for cellular-automata based models. A methodological approach on prospective scenario assessment

En el presente trabajo se desarrolla una propuesta que podría formar parte de un proceso de validación para modelos prospectivos (no necesariamente predictivos) de simulación del crecimiento urbano basado en autómatas celulares (AC). Concretamente, se plantea la aplicación de un análisis de sensibilidad que pretende explorar el grado de influencia de cada uno de los parámetros de los modelos tradicionalmente empleados en la simulación del crecimiento urbano, valorando si la ausencia de uno o varios de ellos supone una alteración significativa de los resultados. Para ello se ha empleado un modelo desarrollado para simular un crecimiento urbano futuro deseable en la Comunidad de Madrid y que, por tanto, no se limita a reproducir en el futuro lo acontecido en el pasado, aplicación que tradicionalmente se ha llevado a cabo con los modelos basados en AC. La propuesta se basa en la generación de diferentes versiones del modelo derivadas de la eliminación de diversos parámetros de los que conforman la versión original. Los resultados muestran la gran influencia de factores como la aptitud y la vecindad. La evaluación de los resultados del análisis de sensibilidad, por otro lado, nos ofrece información interesante sobre aquellas localizaciones que podríamos considerar soluciones robustas del modelo y que, por tanto, minimizarían el riesgo asumido al tomar la decisión de urbanizarlas.This paper presents a Sensitivity Analysis (SA) as part of a validation procedure to be applied to prospective models for urban simulation growth based on Cellular Automata (CA). This SA explores the influence of each factor integrating the CA model on the results to simulate the future urban growth in Madrid region. The proposal is based on the generation of different versions of the original model, erasing one factor at a time. The results show a relevant influence of the suitability and neighbourhood factors. The evaluation of the results of the SA also offers interesting information about those locations that could be considered robust solutions of the model (in order to be urbanized), minimizing the decision risk.Ministerio de Educación y Cienci

Análisis de Sensibilidad aplicado a modelos de crecimiento urbano basados en autómatas celulares de estructura irregular

This work presents a Sensitivity Analysis (SA), as part of a validation process that is applied on an urban growth Cellular Automata (CA) based-model with irregular structure (MUGICA, Model for Urban Growth simulation using an Irregular Cellular Automata). This model has been developed to simulate urban growth of three municipalities located in an important industrial corridor (Corredor del Henares) in the central area of Spain. Although the methodology employed in this work has already been applied in models based on a raster structure, it is intended to verify its viability in the previous simulation phase, that is, in the calibration period (2000-2010) in a model of irregular structure such as MUGICA, which uses the cadastral plot as reference unit. This procedure aims to explore the degree of influence of each of the parameters on the results of the model, individually and as a whole. For this purpose, a successive elimination of the parameters is performed to evaluate if the absence of one or several of them implies a significant alteration of the results. The results show, firstly, the viability to apply this methodology in a vector environment. On the other hand, it has been possible to verify the significative influence of the suitability and accessibility factors in the development of urban land, as would be expected in a model of these characteristics.En el presente trabajo se aplica un Análisis de Sensibilidad (AS), como parte de un proceso de validación, sobre un modelo de simulación del crecimiento urbano basado en Autómatas Celulares (AC) de estructura irregular (MUGICA, Model for Urban Growth simulation using an Irregular Celular Automata). Este modelo ha sido desarrollado para simular el crecimiento urbano de tres municipios pertenecientes a un importante corredor urbano-industrial (Corredor del Henares) localizado en la zona central peninsular de España. Si bien la metodología utilizada en este trabajo ya ha sido aplicada en modelos basados en una estructura raster, se pretende comprobar su viabilidad en un modelo de estructura irregular como MUGICA, el cual emplea la parcela catastral como unidad de referencia. El objetivo es explorar el grado de influencia de cada uno de los factores en los resultados del modelo, de manera individual y en sus diferentes combinaciones. Para ello se realiza una eliminación sucesiva de los factores con el fin de evaluar si la ausencia de uno o varios de ellos supone una alteración significativa de los resultados. Los resultados muestran, en primer lugar, la viabilidad de la aplicación de esta metodología en este tipo de entorno irregular. Por otro lado, se ha podido constatar la gran influencia de los factores accesibilidad y aptitud en el desarrollo de suelo urbano, como sería de esperar en un modelo de estas características

Simulación prospectiva del crecimiento urbano en la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid a partir de modelos basados en autómatas celulares y modelos basados en EMC

En el presente trabajo se analizan los resultados de varias simulaciones prospectivas de crecimiento urbano, entre los años 2000 y 2020, realizadas en la Comunidad de Madrid, aplicando dos modelos diferentes: uno basado en Autómatas Celulares (AC) y otro en técnicas de Evaluación MultiCriterio (EMC). El objetivo es comparar los resultados de las simulaciones de ambos modelos para detectar si se aproximan o están fuertemente influidos por la técnica empleada. Esto también permitiría, en cierta forma, evaluar los modelos desarrollados y su utilidad, pudiendo generar una cartografía de los resultados más robustos, es decir, de localizaciones que reiteradamente aparecen en las distintas simulaciones como las más apropiadas para desarrollar una futura ocupación urbana. En este caso concreto, se ha podido comprobar la escasa coincidencia entre resultados, evidenciando la necesidad, por un lado, de utilizar metodologías de comparación de mapas más flexibles, que permitan valorar mejor las semejanzas/diferencias encontradas, y, por otro, de detectar particularidades de los modelos que estén condicionando los resultados e, inclusive, deficiencias en su desarrollo.Proyecto SIMURBAN2: Instrumentos de Geosimulación y planificación ambiental en la ordenación territorial de ámbitos metropolitanos. Aplicación a escalas intermedias (Ref.: CSO2012-38158-C02-01)

Epidemiological impact of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias in the Spanish-Portuguese border region

Background: Dementia has reached epidemic proportions and become a huge Public Health problem. Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia. In Spain, more than 800,000 people suffer from AD (Spanish Society of Neurology-SEN). Age is the main risk marker for developing this disease. Its prevalence is three times higher in women than in men due to females’ higher life expectancy. The aim is to know the epidemiological profile and quantify the current scope of the ADand other dementias in the rural Spanish-Portuguese border area, one of the most depopulated and aging regions in Europe. Method: A cross-sectional descriptive study was designed to estimate the prevalence of persons diagnosed with an ICD-9-CM or ICD-10 code diagnosis of dementia in ten BasicHealth Areas of the cross-border rural area of province of Salamanca, Spain, during June-July 2020 (39,354 inhabitants). The cases were recorded from the Electronic Clinical Record of Primary Care (MEDORA) by the Regional Health Management of Castilla y León. Result: A total of 579 individuals suffer some type of dementia in the Spanish- Portuguese border region, with a predominance of females (70%) vs. males (30%), and an age range of 38 to 109 years (Figure_1). AD was diagnosed in 307(53%) persons and other dementias in 272(47%). Gender distribution of the diagnoses is different in women and men (p<0.001) (Table_1). The mean(±SD) age was 85.2±7.6 years for women and 82.5±8.7 years for men (p<0.001). The mean(±SD) age of Alzheimert’s patients was lower, 83.7±7.1 vs. 85.2±8.9 (p=0.031) (Figure_2). The global prevalence of dementia was 1.47 per 100 inhabitants (0.78% in AD vs. 0.69% in other dementias). The prevalence of dementia was 2.12% in females and 0.85% in males. Prevalence range in the ten Basic Health Areas: from 2.98 (La-Alberca) to 0.77 (Tamames) per 100 inhabitants. 26.4% of people with AD and other dementias in this region were institutionalized. Conclusion: The prevalence data obtained confirm that AD and other dementias must be considered a public health problem in the rural Spanish-Portuguese border region that represents a significant deterioration in the quality of life (QoL) in patients and their families

IAPT chromosome data 28

[EN] Veronica angustifolia (Vahl) Bernh.; Veronica austriaca subsp. jacquinii (Baumg.) Watzl; Veronica dalmatica N.Pad.Gar., Rojas-Andrés, López-González &amp; M.M.Mart.Ort.; Veronica kindlii Adam.; Veronica orsiniana Ten.; Veronica prostrata L.; Veronica rosea Desf.; Veronica sennenii (Pau) M.M.Mart.Ort. &amp; E.Rico; Veronica tenuifolia subsp. javalambrensis (Pau) Molero &amp; J.Pujadas; Veronic tenuifolia Asso subsp. tenuifolia; Veronica teucrium L.; Veronica thracica Velen.. In: K. Marhold &amp; J. Kucera, IAPT chromosome data 28

The Toxicity Exerted by the Antibiotic Sulfadiazine on the Growth of Soil Bacterial Communities May Increase over Time

The toxicity exerted by the antibiotic sulfadiazine on the growth of soil bacterial communities was studied in two agricultural soils for a period of 100 days. In the short-term (2 days of incubation), the effect of sulfadiazine on bacterial growth was low (no inhibition or inhibition <32% for a dose of 2000 mg·kg−1). However, sulfadiazine toxicity increased with time, achieving values of 40% inhibition, affecting bacterial growth in both soils after 100 days of incubation. These results, which were here observed for the first time for any antibiotic in soil samples, suggest that long-term experiments would be required for performing an adequate antibiotics risk assessment, as short-term experiments may underestimate toxicity effectsThis study has been funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the projects CGL2015-67333-C2-1-R and -2-R (FEDER Funds), and by Xunta de Galicia via CITACA Strategic Partnership (ED431E 2018/07) and BV1 research group (ED431C 2017/62-GRC). David Fernández Calviño holds a Ramón y Cajal contract (RYC-2016-20411) financed by the Spanish Ministry of Economy Industry and Competitiveness. Vanesa Santás Miguel holds a pre-doctoral fellowship founded by the University of VigoS

Starburst radio galaxies: General properties, evolutionary histories and triggering

In this paper we discuss the results of a programme of spectral synthesis modelling of a sample of starburst radio galaxies in the context of scenarios for the triggering of the activity and the evolution of the host galaxies. New optical spectra are also presented for a subset of the objects discussed. The starburst radio galaxies - comprising ∼15-25 per cent of all powerful extragalactic radio sources - frequently show disturbed morphologies at optical wavelengths, and unusual radio structures, although their stellar masses are typical of radio galaxies as a class. In terms of the characteristic ages of their young stellar populations (YSPs), the objects can be divided into two groups: those with YSP ages tYSP≤ 0.1 Gyr, in which the radio source has been triggered quasi-simultaneously with the main starburst episode, and those with older YSP in which the radio source has been triggered or re-triggered a significant period after the starburst episode. Most of the former group are associated with a large mid- to far-IR (MFIR) continuum and [Oiii] emission-line luminosities (LIR > 1011L⊙, W), while most of the latter have lower luminosities. Combining the information on the YSP with that on the optical morphologies of the host galaxies, we deduce that the majority of the starburst radio galaxies have been triggered in galaxy mergers in which at least one of the galaxies is gas rich. However, the triggering (or re-triggering) of the radio jets can occur immediately before, around or a significant period after the final coalescence of the merging nuclei, reflecting the complex gas infall histories of the merger events. Although ∼25 per cent of starburst radio galaxies are sufficiently bright at MFIR wavelengths to be classified as ultraluminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs), we show that only the most massive ULIRGs are capable of evolving into radio galaxies. Finally, for a small subset of starburst radio galaxies in rich clusters of galaxies, cooling flows associated with the hot X-ray haloes offer a viable alternative to mergers as a trigger for the radio jet activity. Overall, our results provide further evidence that a powerful radio jet activity can be triggered via a variety of mechanisms, including different evolutionary stages of major galaxy mergers; clearly, radio-loud AGN activity is not solely associated with a particular stage of a unique type of gas accretion event. © 2011 The Authors Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society © 2011 RAS.This research has made use of the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Data base (NED) which is operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Based on observations made with ESO Telescopes at the La Silla and Paranal observatories under programmes 70.B-0663(A), 71.B-0320(A), 078B-0660(A).Peer Reviewe

Environmental differences are correlated with the distribution pattern of cytotypes in Veronica subsection Pentasepalae at a broad scale

[EN] Background and Aims: The distribution of cytotypes and its potential correlation with environmental variables represent a cornerstone to understanding the origin and maintenance of polyploid lineages. Although many studies have addressed this question in single species at a regional scale, only a few have attempted to decipher this enigma in groups of closely related species at a broad intercontinental geographical scale. Here, we consider approx. 20 species of a diploid–polyploid complex (Veronica subsect. Pentasepalae) of recent and rapid diversification represented in Europe and North Africa to study the frequency and distribution of cytotypes and their relationship to environmental variables. Methods: A total of 680 individuals (207 populations) were sampled. Ploidy levels were determined using flow cytometry. Ecological differentiation among cytotypes was tested using climatic and environmental variables related to temperature, precipitation, vegetation and biogeographical region, among others, and by performing univariate and multivariate (constrained principal coordinates analysis) analyses. Key Results: Four ploidy levels (2x, 4x, 6x and 8x) were found and genome downsizing was observed to occur within the group. Plants of different ploidy level are ecologically differentiated, with hexaploids and octoploids occurring in wetter and colder habitats with a higher seasonality than diploids. A south to north distribution pattern was found, with diploids occupying southern refugial areas and octoploids being more frequent in northern regions of Europe above the permafrost boundary. Conclusions: The distribution of cytotypes can be explained by ecological differentiation, the geographical position of refuge areas during the Quaternary climatic oscillations as well as by ice and permafrost retreat patterns. The Balkan Peninsula constitutes the most important contact zone between cytotypes. This work provides the first comprehensive ploidy screening within V. subsect. Pentasepalae at a broad scale and indicates that polyploidy and genome downsizing might have contributed to the colonization of new habitats in a recently diverged polyploid complex.Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad [projects CGL2009-07555 and CGL2012-32574]; the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación [PhD grants AP2008-03434 to B.R.A. and AP2010-2968 to N.L.G.]; and the University of Salamanca [PhD grant to N.P.G. co-financed by Banco Santander]

Evaluando los Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs): Un sistema integrado de calidad en el EEES

Comunicació presentada al Congrés Internacional de Docència Universitària i Innovació (CIDUI) 2016. Publicat a la Revista del CIDUIEl objetivo de esta investigación es el diseño de un sistema integrado de evaluación de la calidad de los MOOCs. Para ello se han considerado los criterios de evaluación empleados por diversas instituciones y autores (vg. REACU, ENQUA...). Metodológicamente, se ha aplicado un diseño cuantitativo, descriptivo y seccional para evaluar diversos cursos sobre emprendeduría e innovación. La principal contribución es establecer indicadores de calidad en el desarrollo e implementación de los MOOCs.Vicerrectorat de Política Docent i Lingüística. Programa de Millora i Innovació Docent de la Universitat de Barcelon