Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts. © 2016 The Author(s)

The Ponto-Caspian basin as a final trap for southeastern Scandinavian Ice-Sheet meltwater

This paper provides new data on the evolution of the Caspian Sea and Black Sea from the Last Glacial Maximum until ca. 12 cal kyr BP. We present new analyses (clay mineralogy, grain-size, Nd isotopes and pollen) applied to sediments from the river terraces in the lower Volga, from the middle Caspian Sea and from the western part of the Black Sea. The results show that during the last deglaciation, the Ponto-Caspian basin collected meltwater and fine-grained sediment from the southern margin of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) via the Dniepr and Volga Rivers. It induced the deposition of characteristic red-brownish/chocolate-coloured illite-rich sediments (Red Layers in the Black Sea and Chocolate Clays in the Caspian Sea) that originated from the Baltic Shield area according to Nd data. This general evolution, common to both seas was nevertheless differentiated over time due to the specificities of their catchment areas and due to the movement of the southern margin of the SIS. Our results indicate that in the eastern part of the East European Plain, the meltwater from the SIS margin supplied the Caspian Sea during the deglaciation until ∼13.8 cal kyr BP, and possibly from the LGM. That led to the Early Khvalynian transgressive stage(s) and Chocolate Clays deposition in the now-emerged northern flat part of the Caspian Sea (river terraces in the modern lower Volga) and in its middle basin. In the western part of the East European Plain, our results confirm the release of meltwater from the SIS margin into the Black Sea that occurred between 17.2 and 15.7 cal kyr BP, as previously proposed. Indeed, recent findings concerning the evolution of the southern margin of the SIS and the Black Sea, show that during the last deglaciation, occurred a westward release of meltwater into the North Atlantic (between ca. 20 and 16.7 cal kyr BP), and a southward one into the Black Sea (between 17.2 and 15.7 cal kyr BP). After the Red Layers/Chocolate Clays deposition in both seas and until 12 cal kyr BP, smectite became the dominant clay mineral. The East European Plain is clearly identified as the source for smectite in the Caspian Sea sediments. In the Black Sea, smectite originated either from the East European Plain or from the Danube River catchment. Previous studies consider smectite as being only of Anatolian origin. However, our results highlight both, the European source for smectite and the impact of this source on the depositional environment of the Black Sea during considered period

Deletion of the tail domain of the kinesin-5 Cin8 affects its directionality

Background: Single molecules of the kinesin-5 Cin8 were previously demonstrated to be minus-end-directed under highionic- strength conditions. Results: Under high-ionic-strength conditions, Cin8 lacking the tail domain is bidirectional. Conclusion: The tail domain is one of the factors that regulate Cin8 directionality. Significance: An important structural element was identified that regulates the directionality of kinesin-5 motors

Efficacy and safety of gluten peptide-based antigen-specific immunotherapy (Nexvax2) in adults with coeliac disease after bolus exposure to gluten (RESET CeD) : an interim analysis of a terminated randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2 study

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