Populism and Central Bank Independence

The consensus that surrounded the granting of central bank independence in the pursuit of a price stability oriented monetary policy has been challenged in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, in the light of the rise of populism on the one hand and the expanded mandates of central banks on the other hand. After considering the economic case for independence and the three Ds (distributional, directional and duration effects), the paper examines three different dimensions in the debate of how the rise in populism - or simply general discontent with the status quo - affects central bank independence. Finally, the paper examines how to interpret the legality of central bank mandates, and whether or not central banks have exceeded their powers. This analysis leads us in turn to consider accountability and, in particular, the judicial review of central bank actions and decisions. It is important to have in place adequate mechanisms to "guard the guardians" of monetary and financial stability

Data assimilation in a system with two scales-combining two initialization techniques

11 pages, 11 figures, 1 tableFull-text version available Open Access at: http://clivar.iim.csic.es/?q=es/node/319An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used to assimilate data onto a non-linear chaotic model, coupling two kinds of variables. The first kind of variables of the system is characterized as large amplitude, slow, large scale, distributed in eight equally spaced locations around a circle. The second kind of variables are small amplitude, fast, and short scale, distributed in 256 equally spaced locations. Synthetic observations are obtained from the model and the observational error is proportional to their respective amplitudes. The performance of the EnKF is affected by differences in the spatial correlation scales of the variables being assimilated. This method allows the simultaneous assimilation of all the variables. The ensemble filter also allows assimilating only the large-scale variables, letting the small-scale variables to freely evolve. Assimilation of the large-scale variables together with a few small-scale variables significantly degrades the filter. These results are explained by the spurious correlations that arise from the sampled ensemble covariances. An alternative approach is to combine two different initialization techniques for the slow and fast variables. Here, the fast variables are initialized by restraining the evolution of the ensemble members, using a Newtonian relaxation toward the observed fast variables. Then, the usual ensemble analysis is used to assimilate the large-scale observationsThis study is supported by the Spanish National Science Program under contracts ESP2005–06823-C05 and ESP2007–65667-C04Peer reviewe

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701

Vacuum structure for scalar cosmological perturbations in Modified Gravity Models

We have found for the general class of Modified Gravity Models f(R,G) a new instability which can arise in vacuum for the scalar modes of the cosmological perturbations if the background is not de Sitter. In particular, the short-wavelength modes, if stable, in general have a group velocity which depends linearly in k, the wave number. Therefore these modes will be in general superluminal. We have also discussed the condition for which in general these scalar modes will be ghost-like. There is a subclass of these models, defined out of properties of the function f(R,G) and to which the f(R) and f(G) models belong, which however does not have this feature.Comment: 17 pages, 1 figure, uses RevTeX, references adde

Measurement of Dijet Azimuthal Decorrelations at Central Rapidities in pp-bar Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV

Correlations in the azimuthal angle between the two largest transverse momentum jets have been measured using the D0 detector in pp-bar collisions at a center-of-mass energy sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV. The analysis is based on an inclusive dijet event sample in the central rapidity region corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 150 pb-1. Azimuthal correlations are stronger at larger transverse momenta. These are well-described in perturbative QCD at next-to-leading order in the strong coupling constant, except at large azimuthal differences where soft effects are significant.Comment: 6 pages, 3 Figures submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Addressing the climate challenge

In 2021, colleagues from across the University of Birmingham community were invited to write articles about topics relevant to the COP26 climate change summit. In this series of articles, experts from across many different disciplines provide new insight and evidence on how we might all understand and tackle climate change

Search for doubly charged Higgs boson pair production in the decay to mu(+)mu(+)mu(-)mu(-) in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV

A search for pair production of doubly charged Higgs bosons in the process p (p) over bar -->H++H---->mu(+)mu(+)mu(-)mu(-) is performed with the D0 run II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. The analysis is based on a sample of inclusive dimuon data collected at an energy of roots=1.96 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 113 pb(-1). In the absence of a signal, 95% confidence level mass limits of M(H-L(+/-+/-))>118.4 GeV/c(2) and M(H-R(+/-+/-))>98.2 GeV/c(2) are set for left-handed and right-handed doubly charged Higgs bosons, respectively, assuming 100% branching into muon pairs

Agent-Based Project Management

Integrated project management means that design and planning are interleaved with plan execution, allowing both the design and plan to be changed as necessary. This requires that the right effects of change are propagated through the plan and design. When this is distributed among designers and planners, no one may have all of the information to perform such propagation and it is important to identify what effects should be propagated to whom when. We describe a set of dependencies among plan and design elements that allow such notification by a set of message-passing software agents. The result is to provide a novel level of computer support for complex projects

Agent-Based Project Management

Integrated project management means that design and construction planning are interleaved with plan execution, allowing both the design and plan to be changed as necessary. This requires that the right eects of change need to be propagated through the plan and design. When this is distributed among designers and planners, no one may have all of the information to perform such propagation and it is important to identify what effects should be propagated to whom, and when. We describe a set of dependencies among plan and design elements that allow such notication by a set of message-passing software agents. The result is to provide a novel level of computer support for complex projects