Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to spatial resolution in higher-order simulations: the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) contribution to ISMIP6 Greenland using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)

Projections of the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise include uncertainties primarily due to the imposed climate forcing and the initial state of the ice sheet model. Several state-of-the-art ice flow models are currently being employed on various grid resolutions to estimate future mass changes in the framework of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). Here we investigate the sensitivity to grid resolution of centennial sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet and study the mechanism at play. We employ the finite-element higher-order Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) and conduct experiments with four different horizontal resolutions, namely 4, 2, 1 and 0.75 km. We run the simulation based on the ISMIP6 core climate forcing from the MIROC5 global circulation model (GCM) under the high-emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and consider both atmospheric and oceanic forcing in full and separate scenarios. Under the full scenarios, finer simulations unveil up to approximately 5 % more sea-level rise compared to the coarser resolution. The sensitivity depends on the magnitude of outlet glacier retreat, which is implemented as a series of retreat masks following the ISMIP6 protocol. Without imposed retreat under atmosphere-only forcing, the resolution dependency exhibits an opposite behaviour with approximately 5 % more sea-level contribution in the coarser resolution. The sea-level contribution indicates a converging behaviour below a 1 km horizontal resolution. A driving mechanism for differences is the ability to resolve the bedrock topography, which highly controls ice discharge to the ocean. Additionally, thinning and acceleration emerge to propagate further inland in high resolution for many glaciers. A major response mechanism is sliding, with an enhanced feedback on the effective normal pressure at higher resolution leading to a larger increase in sliding speeds under scenarios with outlet glacier retreat

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheet–climate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change

Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting

This research has been supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center (postdoctoral program grant), the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant no. 1513396), the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (grant no. 024.002.001), the Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique – FNRS (grant no. 2.5020.11),the Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles (grant no. 1117545), the National Science Foundation, Division of Polar Programs (grant no. 1916566), the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant no. 1756272) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant no. NNX17AI03G).The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importance, problems of process complexity and scale hinder efforts to represent the influence of submarine melting in ice-sheet-scale models. Here we propose parameterizing tidewater glacier terminus position as a simple linear function of submarine melting, with submarine melting in turn estimated as a function of subglacial discharge and ocean temperature. The relationship is tested, calibrated and validated using datasets of terminus position, subglacial discharge and ocean temperature covering the full ice sheet and surrounding ocean from the period 1960–2018. We demonstrate a statistically significant link between multi-decadal tidewater glacier terminus position change and submarine melting and show that the proposed parameterization has predictive power when considering a population of glaciers. An illustrative 21st century projection is considered, suggesting that tidewater glaciers in Greenland will undergo little further retreat in a low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, a high-emission RCP8.5 scenario results in a median retreat of 4.2 km, with a quarter of tidewater glaciers experiencing retreat exceeding 10 km. Our study provides a long-term and ice-sheet-wide assessment of the sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to submarine melting and proposes a practical and empirically validated means of incorporating ocean forcing into models of the Greenland ice sheet.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Rising oceans guaranteed: Arctic land ice loss and sea level rise

Purpose of Review This paper reviews sea level contributions from land ice across the Arctic, including Greenland. We summarize ice loss measurement methods, ice loss mechanisms, and recent observations and projections, and highlight research advances over the last 3-5 years and remaining scientific challenges. Recent Findings Mass loss across the Arctic began to accelerate during the late twentieth century, with projections of continued loss across all future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Recent research has improved knowledge of ice hydrology and surface processes, influences of atmospheric and oceanic changes on land ice, and boundary conditions such as subglacial topography. New computer models can also more accurately simulate glacier and ice sheet evolution. Summary Rapid Arctic ice loss is underway, and future ice loss and sea level rise are guaranteed. Research continues to better understand and model physical processes and to improve projections of ice loss rates, especially after 2050

Coronal electron temperature in the protracted solar minimum, the cycle 24 mini maximum, and over centuries

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106800/1/jgra50869.pd

Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project

In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The late Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of five sensitivity experiments. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, considering the models are set up with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene, the results demonstrate the difficulty of all six models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. The specific sea-level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet at this point cannot be conclusively determined, whereas improved grounding line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding-line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene

Identification of the major active ingredients in illegal pesticide seized by Brazilian Federal Police and quantification of metsulfuron-methyl and tebuconazole

A compilação de relatórios forenses de agrotóxicos, objetos de apreensões pela Polícia Federal no Brasil, mostrou que metsulfurom-metílico, imidacloprido, fipronil, tebuconazol, clorimurom-etílico e glifosato são os principais ingredientes ativos (IA) importados ilegalmente. Apesar destes IA não estarem entre os agrotóxicos mais comercializados no país, o alto preço das formulações correspondentes legalmente registradas pode estimular esta atividade ilegal. Com base neste estudo, amostras de agrotóxicos contrabandeados apreendidos contendo tebuconazol e metsulfurom-metílico foram analisadas quantitativamente utilizando cromatografia a gás e líquida, respectivamente. Tebuconazol, em apresentações líquidas e sólidas, apresentou concentrações concordantes com as informações dos rótulos, enquanto que a maioria das amostras de metsulfurom-metílico, rotuladas como 600 g kg-1, apresentaram concentrações mais baixas nas análises químicas (média de 337,0 g kg-1 + 2,0).The compilation of forensic reports from pesticides seized by the Federal Police in Brazil showed that metsulfuron-methyl, imidacloprid, fipronil, tebuconazole, clorimuron-ether and glyphosate were the dominant active ingredients (AI) illegally imported. Despite these AI were not among the most traded pesticides in Brazil, high prices of corresponding legal formulations may stimulate this illegal activity. Based on this study, smuggled pesticides containing tebuconazole and metsulfuron-methyl were seized and quantitatively analyzed using gas and liquid chromatography, respectively. Tebuconazole results, in liquid and solid presentations, were in accordance with the information on the label, while most metsulfuron-methyl samples, labeled as 600 g kg-1, showed lower concentrations in chemical analysis (mean of 337.0 g kg-1 + 2.0)

PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project

In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The late Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of five sensitivity experiments. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, considering the models are set up with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene, the results demonstrate the difficulty of all six models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. The specific sea-level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet at this point cannot be conclusively determined, whereas improved grounding line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding-line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene