Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly tied. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation

Variability in the summer movements, habitat use and thermal biology of two fish species in a temperate river

The ability of fish to cope with warm water temperatures in summer depends on factors including their thermal traits and the ability of individuals to access cool-water refugia. Knowledge is highly limited on the in situ responses of many fishes to elevated summer temperatures, including whether they express behavioural thermoregulation. The responses of two riverine species to summer water temperatures were tested here using the movement metrics, spatial habitat use and body temperatures of individual European barbel Barbus barbus (‘barbel’) and common bream Abramis brama (‘bream’) versus river temperatures. Acoustic biotelemetry was applied in the lower River Severn basin, western Britain, in summer 2021 (barbel) and 2022 (bream), where individuals could move across > 150 km of river, including a tributary of cooler water. Across all individuals, bream occupied 37 km of river length (mainstem only), with low inter-individual variability in their spatial habitat use, movements and body temperatures. In contrast, barbel occupied 62 km of river (main river/tributary), with relatively high inter-individual variability in spatial habitat use, movements and body temperatures, with higher variation in body temperatures as river temperatures increased (maximum mean daily temperature difference between individuals on the same day: 4.2 °C). Although warmer individuals generally moved more, their activity was greatest at relatively low temperatures and higher flows, and neither species revealed any evidence of behavioural thermoregulation during elevated temperatures. Enabling phenotypically diverse fish populations to express their natural behaviours and thermal preferences in summer water temperatures thus requires maintaining their free-ranging in thermally heterogenous habitats

Induced innovation in energy technologies and systems: a review of evidence and potential implications for CO2 mitigation

We conduct a systematic, interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis. Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions). Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes. We derive three main conclusions. (1) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers - general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (2) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (3) Overall Innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modeling and policy. In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research

The Science Case for PILOT I: Summary and Overview

Original article can be found at: http://www.publish.csiro.au/?nid=139&aid=108 DOI: 10.1071/AS08048 [Open access article]PILOT (the Pathfinder for an International Large Optical Telescope) is a proposed 2.5-m optical/infrared telescope to be located at Dome C on the Antarctic plateau. Conditions at Dome C are known to be exceptional for astronomy. The seeing (above ∼30 m height), coherence time, and isoplanatic angle are all twice as good as at typical mid-latitude sites, while the water-vapour column, and the atmosphere and telescope thermal emission are all an order of magnitude better. These conditions enable a unique scientific capability for PILOT, which is addressed in this series of papers. The current paper presents an overview of the optical and instrumentation suite for PILOT and its expected performance, a summary of the key science goals and observational approach for the facility, a discussion of the synergies between the science goals for PILOT and other telescopes, and a discussion of the future of Antarctic astronomy. Paper II and Paper III present details of the science projects divided, respectively, between the distant Universe (i.e. studies of first light, and the assembly and evolution of structure) and the nearby Universe (i.e. studies of Local Group galaxies, the Milky Way, and the Solar System).Peer reviewe

Enhanced insulin sensitivity associated with provision of mono and polyunsaturated fatty acids in skeletal muscle cells involves counter modulation of PP2A

International audienceAims/Hypothesis: Reduced skeletal muscle insulin sensitivity is a feature associated with sustained exposure to excess saturated fatty acids (SFA), whereas mono and polyunsaturated fatty acids (MUFA and PUFA) not only improve insulin sensitivity but blunt SFA-induced insulin resistance. The mechanisms by which MUFAs and PUFAs institute these favourable changes remain unclear, but may involve stimulating insulin signalling by counter-modulation/repression of protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A). This study investigated the effects of oleic acid (OA; a MUFA), linoleic acid (LOA; a PUFA) and palmitate (PA; a SFA) in cultured myotubes and determined whether changes in insulin signalling can be attributed to PP2A regulation. Principal Findings: We treated cultured skeletal myotubes with unsaturated and saturated fatty acids and evaluated insulin signalling, phosphorylation and methylation status of the catalytic subunit of PP2A. Unlike PA, sustained incubation of rat or human myotubes with OA or LOA significantly enhanced Akt-and ERK1/2-directed insulin signalling. This was not due to heightened upstream IRS1 or PI3K signalling nor to changes in expression of proteins involved in proximal insulin signalling, but was associated with reduced dephosphorylation/inactivation of Akt and ERK1/2. Consistent with this, PA reduced PP2Ac demethylation and tyrosine 307 phosphorylation-events associated with PP2A activation. In contrast, OA and LOA strongly opposed these PA-induced changes in PP2Ac thus exerting a repressive effect on PP2A.Conclusions/Interpretation: Beneficial gains in insulin sensitivity and the ability of unsaturated fatty acids to oppose palmitate-induced insulin resistance in muscle cells may partly be accounted for by counter-modulation of PP2A

Beyond climate change and health: Integrating broader environmental change and natural environments for public health protection and promotion in the UK

This is the final version of the article. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record.Increasingly, the potential short and long-term impacts of climate change on human health and wellbeing are being demonstrated. However, other environmental change factors, particularly relating to the natural environment, need to be taken into account to understand the totality of these interactions and impacts. This paper provides an overview of ongoing research in the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) on Environmental Change and Health, particularly around the positive and negative effects of the natural environment on human health and well-being and primarily within a UK context. In addition to exploring the potential increasing risks to human health from water-borne and vector-borne diseases and from exposure to aeroallergens such as pollen, this paper also demonstrates the potential opportunities and co-benefits to human physical and mental health from interacting with the natural environment. The involvement of a Health and Environment Public Engagement (HEPE) group as a public forum of "critical friends" has proven useful for prioritising and exploring some of this research; such public involvement is essential to minimise public health risks and maximise the benefits which are identified from this research into environmental change and human health. Research gaps are identified and recommendations made for future research into the risks, benefits and potential opportunities of climate and other environmental change on human and planetary health.The research was funded in part by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London, and the Met Office (HPRU-2012-10016); the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) for the MEDMI Project (MR/K019341/1, https: //www.data-mashup.org.uk); the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Project (ES/P011489/1); and the NIHR Knowledge Mobilisation Research Fellowship for Maguire

The ethics of uncertainty for data subjects

Modern health data practices come with many practical uncertainties. In this paper, I argue that data subjects’ trust in the institutions and organizations that control their data, and their ability to know their own moral obligations in relation to their data, are undermined by significant uncertainties regarding the what, how, and who of mass data collection and analysis. I conclude by considering how proposals for managing situations of high uncertainty might be applied to this problem. These emphasize increasing organizational flexibility, knowledge, and capacity, and reducing hazard

The effectiveness of protected areas in the conservation of species with changing geographical ranges

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas (PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questioned given that species are changing their distributions in response to climatic change. There is a concern that PAs may become climatically unsuitable for those species that they were designated to protect, and may not be located appropriately to receive newly-colonizing species for which the climate is improving. In the present study, we analyze fine-scale distribution data from detailed resurveys of seven butterfly and 11 bird species in Great Britain aiming to examine any effect of PA designation in preventing extinctions and promoting colonizations. We found a positive effect of PA designation on species' persistence at trailing-edge warm range margins, although with a decreased magnitude at higher latitudes and altitudes. In addition, colonizations by range expanding species were more likely to occur on PAs even after altitude and latitude were taken into account. PAs will therefore remain an important strategy for conservation. The potential for PA management to mitigate the effects of climatic change for retracting species deserves further investigation