Economic and social factors in designing disease control strategies for epidemics on networks

Models for control of epidemics on local, global and small-world networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. The main goal of an effective control measure is to stop the epidemic at a lowest possible cost, including treatment and cost necessary to track the disease spread. We show that delay in detection of infectious individuals and presence of long-range links are the most important factors determining the cost. However, the details of long-range links are usually the least-known element of the social interactions due to their occasional character and potentially short life-span. We show that under some conditions on the probability of disease spread, it is advisable to attempt to track those links. Thus, collecting some additional knowledge about the network structure might be beneficial to ensure a successful and cost-effective control.Comment: To be published in Acta Phys. Pol.

Controlling disease spread on networks with incomplete knowledge

Models for control of highly infectious diseases on local, small-world, and scale-free networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. We consider a case when individuals can be infectious before showing symptoms and thus before detection. For small to moderately severe incidence of infection with a small number of nonlocal links, it is possible to control disease spread by using purely local methods applied in a neighborhood centered around a detected infectious individual. There exists an optimal radius for such a control neighborhood leading to the lowest severity of the epidemic in terms of economic costs associated with disease and treatment. The efficiency of a local control strategy is very sensitive to the choice of the radius. Below the optimal radius, the local strategy is unsuccessful; the disease spreads throughout the system, necessitating treatment of the whole population. At the other extreme, a strategy involving a neighborhood that is too large controls the disease but is wasteful of resources. It is not possible to stop an epidemic on scale-free networks by preventive actions, unless a large proportion of the population is treated

Optimising control of disease spread on networks

We consider models for control of epidemics on local, global, small-world and scale-free networks, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. The effectiveness of local (e.g. ring vaccination or culling) vs global (e.g. random vaccination) control measures is evaluated, with the aim of minimising the total cost of an epidemic. The costs include direct costs of treating infected individuals as well as costs of treatment. We first consider a random (global) vaccination strategy designed to stop any potential outbreak. We show that if the costs of the preventive vaccination are ignored, the optimal strategy is to vaccinate the whole population, although most of the resources are wasted on preventing a small number of cases. If the vaccination costs are included, or if a local strategy (within a certain neighbourhood of a symptomatic individual) is chosen, there is an optimum number of treated individuals. Inclusion of non-local contacts (,small-worlds' or scale-free networks) increases the levels of preventive (random) vaccination and radius of local treatment necessary for stopping the outbreak at a minimal cost. The number of initial foci also influences our choice of optimal strategy. The size of epidemics and the number of treated individuals increase for outbreaks that are initiated from a larger number of initial foci, but the optimal radius of local control actually decreases. The results are important for designing control strategies based on cost effectiveness

Epidemics in Networks of Spatially Correlated Three-dimensional Root Branching Structures

Using digitized images of the three-dimensional, branching structures for root systems of bean seedlings, together with analytical and numerical methods that map a common 'SIR' epidemiological model onto the bond percolation problem, we show how the spatially-correlated branching structures of plant roots affect transmission efficiencies, and hence the invasion criterion, for a soil-borne pathogen as it spreads through ensembles of morphologically complex hosts. We conclude that the inherent heterogeneities in transmissibilities arising from correlations in the degrees of overlap between neighbouring plants, render a population of root systems less susceptible to epidemic invasion than a corresponding homogeneous system. Several components of morphological complexity are analysed that contribute to disorder and heterogeneities in transmissibility of infection. Anisotropy in root shape is shown to increase resilience to epidemic invasion, while increasing the degree of branching enhances the spread of epidemics in the population of roots. Some extension of the methods for other epidemiological systems are discussed.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figure

Economically optimal timing for crop disease control under uncertainty: an options approach

Severe large-scale disease and pest infestations in agricultural regions can cause significant economic damage. Understanding if and when disease control measures should be taken in the presence of risk and uncertainty is a key issue. We develop a framework to examine the economically optimal timing of treatment. The decision to treat should only be undertaken when the benefits exceed the costs by a certain amount and not if they are merely equal to or greater than the costs as standard net-present-value (NPV) analysis suggests. This criterion leads to a reduction in fungicide use. We investigate the effect of the model for disease progress on the value required for immediate treatment by comparing two standard models for disease increase (exponential and logistic growth). Analyses show that the threshold value of benefits required for immediate release of treatment varies significantly with the relative duration of the agricultural season, the intrinsic rate of increase of the disease and the level of uncertainty in disease progression. In comparing the performance of the delay strategy introduced here with the conventional NPV approach, we show how the degree of uncertainty affects the benefits of delaying control

Joint inversion of surface waves and teleseismic body waves across the Tibetan collision zone: The fate of subducted Indian lithosphere

We carry out a joint inversion of surface wave dispersion curves and teleseismic shear wave arrival times across the Tibetan collision zone, from just south of the Himalaya to the Qaidam Basin at the northeastern margin of the plateau, and from the surface to 600 km depth. The surface wave data consist of Rayleigh-wave group dispersion curves, mainly in the period range from 10 to 70 s, with a maximum of 2877 source–receiver pairs. The body wave data consist of more than 8000 S-wave arrival times recorded from 356 telesesmic events. The tomographic images show a ‘wedge’ of fast seismic velocities beneath central Tibet that starts underneath the Himalaya and reaches as far as the Bangong–Nujiang Suture (BNS). In our preferred interpretation, in central Tibet the Indian lithosphere underthrusts the plateau to approximately the BNS, and then subducts steeply. Further east, Indian lithosphere appears to be subducting at an angle of ∼45°. We see fast seismic velocities under much of the plateau, as far as the BNS in central Tibet, and as far as the Xiangshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault in the east. At 150 km depth, the fast region is broken by an area ∼300 km wide that stretches from the northern edge of central Tibet southeastwards as far as the Himalaya. We suggest that this gap, which has been observed previously by other investigators, represents the northernmost edge of the Indian lithosphere, and is a consequence of the steepening of the subduction zone from central to eastern Tibet. This also implies that the fast velocities in the northeast have a different origin, and are likely to be caused by lithospheric thickening or small-scale subduction of Asian lithosphere. Slow velocities observed to the south of the Qaidam suggest that the basin is not subducting. Finally, we interpret fast velocities below 400 km as subducted material from an earlier stage of the collision that has stalled in the transition zone. Its position to the south of the present subduction is likely to be due to the relative motion of India to the northeast.Our study has included data from GSN (including IC, IU and II), China Digital Seismograph Network, GEOSCOPE, IRIS-IDA, Pacific-21, Kyrgyz Digital Network, Kyrgyz Seismic Telemetry Network and IRIS-USGS permanent seismic networks and the MANAS, Tien Shan Continental Dynamics, Tibetan Plateau Broadband Experiment, INDEPTH II, INDEPTH III, INDEPTH IV/ASCENT, HIMNT, Bhutan, Nanga Parbat Pakistan and GHENGIS PASSCAL temporary seismic deployments. We thank IIEES and LGIT for seismic data from Iran and also SEISUK for provision and assistance with instruments operated in northeast India. CN was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council studentship (grant NE/H52449X/1), with CASE funding from AWE Blacknest. We thank Nick Rawlinson and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive and helpful reviews. Figures were prepared with Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) software (Wessel & Smith 1998).This is the version of record, which can also be found on the publisher's website at: http://gji.oxfordjournals.org/content/198/3/1526.full © The Authors 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Societ

Quantitative resistance can lead to evolutionary changes in traits not targeted by the resistance QTLs

This paper addresses the general concern in plant pathology that the introduction of quantitative resistance in the landscape can lead to increased pathogenicity. Hereto, we study the hypothetical case of a quantitative trait loci (QTL) acting on pathogen spore production per unit lesion area. To regain its original fitness, the pathogen can break the QTL, restoring its spore production capacity leading to an increased spore production per lesion. Or alternatively, it can increase its lesion size, also leading to an increased spore production per lesion. A data analysis shows that spore production per lesion (affected by the resistance QTL) and lesion size (not targeted by the QTL) are positively correlated traits, suggesting that a change in magnitude of a trait not targeted by the QTL (lesion size) might indirectly affect the targeted trait (spore production per lesion). Secondly, we model the effect of pathogen adaptation towards increased lesion size and analyse its consequences for spore production per lesion. The model calculations show that when the pathogen is unable to overcome the resistance associated QTL, it may compensate for its reduced fitness by indirect selection for increased pathogenicity on both the resistant and susceptible cultivar, but whereby the QTLs remain effective

Negotiating professional and social voices in research principles and practice

This paper draws on work conducted for a qualitative interview based study which explores the gendered racialised and professional identifications of health and social care professionals. Participants for the project were drawn from the professional executive committees of recently formed Primary Care Trusts. The paper discusses how the feminist psychosocial methodological approach developed for the project is theoretically, practically and ethically useful in exploring the voices of those in positions of relative power in relation to both health and social care services and the social relations of gender and ethnicity. The approach draws on psychodynamic accounts of (defended) subjectivity and the feminist work of Carol Gilligan on a voice-centred relational methodology. Coupling the feminist with the psychosocial facilitates an emphasis on voice and dialogic communication between participant and researcher not always captured in psychosocial approaches which tend towards favouring the interviewer as ‘good listener’. This emphasis on dialogue is important in research contexts where prior and ongoing relationships with professional participants make it difficult and indeed undesirable for researchers to maintain silence

A Cellular Automata Model for Citrus Variagated Chlorosis

A cellular automata model is proposed to analyze the progress of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis epidemics in S\~ao Paulo oranges plantation. In this model epidemiological and environmental features, such as motility of sharpshooter vectors which perform L\'evy flights, hydric and nutritional level of plant stress and seasonal climatic effects, are included. The observed epidemics data were quantitatively reproduced by the proposed model varying the parameters controlling vectors motility, plant stress and initial population of diseased plants.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, Scheduled tentatively for the issue of: 01Nov0