Plio-Pleistocene transpressional reactivation of Paleozoic and Paleogene structures in the Rhine-Bresse transform zone (northern Switzerland and eastern France)

Pliocene to recent uplift and shortening in the southern Rhinegraben is documented by deformation of Pliocene fluvial gravels, deposited on a nearly planar surface, as well as by progressive deflection and capture of rivers. This deformation is suggested to result from thick-skinned tectonic movements as evidenced by observations on seismic records, which demonstrate a spatial coincidence between en-échelon anticlines at the surface and faults located in the crystalline basement. These findings contradict the often invoked thin-skinned tectonism in the recent tectonic history of the Rhinegraben. In particular the transfer zone between the Rhinegraben and the Bressegraben is very suitable for reactivation under the present day stress field. Thick-skinned reactivation of faults in the basement is also expressed by focal plane mechanisms of recent earthquakes showing strike-slip- rather than reverse faulting characteristics. This is of importance for the densely populated and industrialised southern Rhinegraben, previously affected by large earthquakes in historical times (e.g. Basel 1356

Evaluating how predictable errors in expected income affect consumption

This paper studies whether anomalies in consumption can be explained by a behavioral model in which agents make predictable errors in forecasting income. We use a micro-data set containing subjective expectations about future income. The paper shows that, the null hypothesis of rational expectations is rejected in favor of the behavioral model, since consumption responds to predictable forecast errors. On average agents who we predict are too pessimistic increase consumption after the predictable positive income shock. On average agents who are too optimistic reduce consumption

Evaluating how predictable errors in expected income affect consumption

This paper studies whether anomalies in consumption can be explained by a behavioral model in which agents make predictable errors in forecasting income. We use a micro-data set containing subjective expectations about future income. The paper shows that, the null hypothesis of rational expectations is rejected in favor of the behavioral model, since consumption responds to predictable forecast errors. On average agents who we predict are too pessimistic increase consumption after the predictable positive income shock. On average agents who are too optimistic reduce consumption

Cigarette smoking, pregnancy, forward looking behavior and dynamic inconsistency

This paper addresses two aspects of the model of rational addiction: forward looking behavior and time consistent preferences. It explores smoking by women before, during and after pregnancy using the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). Pregnancy is used as an instrument for a partially predictable future decrease in smoking. Women reduce the average number of cigarettes they smoke and many quit in the period 10 to 15 months before the birth of a child. Our analysis suggests that this effect may be stronger for married than for unmarried women, corresponding to the higher probability that the pregnancies of married women are planned. Pregnancy is also used as an instrument to estimate the parameters of a structural model of addiction. The estimates imply that cigarettes are highly addictive. Finally, we present statistically significant evidence that, even when the expected number of cigarettes smoked one month after the interview is taken into account, expected smoking further in the future has an independent effect on current consumption. This effect remains even when we impose the highest theoretically possible coefficient on expected cigarettes smoked one month after the interview. This means that the null of time consistency is (barely) rejected against the alternative of time inconsistency

Pension reforms in the EU since the early 2000's: achievements and challenges ahead

Most EU Member States have carried out substantial pension reforms over the last decades in order to enhance fiscal sustainability, while maintaining adequate pension income. The intensity of pension reforms has been particularly strong since 2000. These reforms have been implemented through a wide range of measures that have substantially modified the pension system rules and parameters. One of the most important elements of pension reforms, aside of whether countries engaged or not in a systemic change, has been the introduction of mechanisms aimed at automatically adjusting (indexing) the key pension parameters (pension age, benefits, financing resources) to demographic pressure (e.g. changes in life expectancy, increase in the dependency ratio). Indeed, since the mid-1990's, half of the EU Member States have adopted either automatic balancing mechanisms, sustainability factors and / or automatic links between retirement age and life expectancy. All these pension reforms are projected to have a substantial impact on containing future pension expenditure trends. According to the latest long-term projections in the 2015 Ageing Report, public pension expenditure is projected to be close to 11% of GDP over the long run in the EU, almost the same as in 2013. However, the fiscal impact of ageing is still projected to be substantial in many EU countries, becoming apparent already over the course of the next two decades. This is also due to the very gradual phasing in of already legislated reforms, an issue that raises questions about the intergenerational fairness of the reforms and poses some doubt on the time-consistency of their implementation. Indeed, the sustainability-enhancing pension reforms legislated in a majority of EU countries will lead to a reduction of generosity of public pension schemes for future generations of retirees. But to make sure that these reforms will not have to face political and social resistance and risk of reversal in the moment they start to be implemented in full, other "flanking" policy measures are likely to be necessary: for example, reforms that boost retirement incomes by effectively extending working lives and employability of older workers (also through flexible working arrangements that allow people to keep working beyond current formal retirement age and to step down gradually from full-time to part-time to very part-time work) and provide other means of retirement incomes (e.g. private pensions) and appropriate social-safety nets to avoid that low-wage people follow back in poverty at old age

Pension reforms in the EU since the early 2000's: achievements and challenges ahead

Most EU Member States have carried out substantial pension reforms over the last decades in order to enhance fiscal sustainability, while maintaining adequate pension income. The intensity of pension reforms has been particularly strong since 2000. These reforms have been implemented through a wide range of measures that have substantially modified the pension system rules and parameters. One of the most important elements of pension reforms, aside of whether countries engaged or not in a systemic change, has been the introduction of mechanisms aimed at automatically adjusting (indexing) the key pension parameters (pension age, benefits, financing resources) to demographic pressure (e.g. changes in life expectancy, increase in the dependency ratio). Indeed, since the mid-1990's, half of the EU Member States have adopted either automatic balancing mechanisms, sustainability factors and / or automatic links between retirement age and life expectancy. All these pension reforms are projected to have a substantial impact on containing future pension expenditure trends. According to the latest long-term projections in the 2015 Ageing Report, public pension expenditure is projected to be close to 11% of GDP over the long run in the EU, almost the same as in 2013. However, the fiscal impact of ageing is still projected to be substantial in many EU countries, becoming apparent already over the course of the next two decades. This is also due to the very gradual phasing in of already legislated reforms, an issue that raises questions about the intergenerational fairness of the reforms and poses some doubt on the time-consistency of their implementation. Indeed, the sustainability-enhancing pension reforms legislated in a majority of EU countries will lead to a reduction of generosity of public pension schemes for future generations of retirees. But to make sure that these reforms will not have to face political and social resistance and risk of reversal in the moment they start to be implemented in full, other "flanking" policy measures are likely to be necessary: for example, reforms that boost retirement incomes by effectively extending working lives and employability of older workers (also through flexible working arrangements that allow people to keep working beyond current formal retirement age and to step down gradually from full-time to part-time to very part-time work) and provide other means of retirement incomes (e.g. private pensions) and appropriate social-safety nets to avoid that low-wage people follow back in poverty at old age

Linking the northern Alps with their foreland: The latest exhumation history resolved by low-temperature thermochronology

The evolution of the Central Alpine deformation front (Subalpine Molasse) and its undeformed foreland is recently debated because of their role for deciphering the late orogenic evolution of the Alps. Its latest exhumation history is poorly understood due to the lack of late Miocene to Pliocene sediments. We constrain the late Miocene to Pliocene history of this transitional zone with apatite fission track and (U-Th)/He data. We used laser ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry for apatite fission track dating and compare this method with previously published and unpublished external detector method fission track data. Two investigated sections across tectonic slices show that the Subalpine Molasse was tectonically active after the onset of folding of the Jura Mountains. This is much younger than hitherto assumed. Thrusting occurred at 10, 8, 6–5 Ma and potentially thereafter. This is contemporaneous with reported exhumation of the External Crystalline Massifs in the central Alps. The Jura Mountains and the Subalpine Molasse used the same detachments as the External Crystalline Massifs and are therefore kinematically coupled. Estimates on the amount of shortening and thrust displacement corroborate this idea. We argue that the tectonic signal is related to active shortening during the late stage of orogenesis