Noble gas based temperature reconstruction on a Swiss stalagmite from the last glacial–interglacial transition and its comparison with other climate records

Here we present the results of a first application of a “Combined Vacuum Crushing and Sieving (CVCS)” system to determine past (cave / soil) temperatures from dissolved noble gas concentrations in stalagmite samples grown under ‘cold’ climatic conditions (e.g. close to freezing point of water) during the last glacial-interglacial transition. To establish noble gas temperatures (NGTs) also for stalagmites grown in cold regions, we applied the CVCS system to samples from stalagmite M2 precipitated in the Milandre Cave, located in the Swiss Jura Mountains. The investigated stalagmite M2 covers the Allerød – Younger Dryas – Holocene transitions. Noble gas temperatures are determined by using a new algorithm based on noble gas and water abundances and not from concentrations. Noble gas results indicate annual mean temperatures in the Milandre Cave were 2.2 ± 1.8 °C during the late stages of the Allerød, then dropping to 〖0 〗_((-))^( +) 2.6 °C at the onset of the Younger Dryas. Such temperatures indicate conditions near to the freezing point of water during the first part of the Younger Dryas. During the last part of the Younger Dryas, the temperature increased to 6.3 ± 2.3 °C. No early Holocene temperature could be determined due the non-detectable water abundances in these samples, however one late Holocene sample indicates a cave temperature of 8.7 ± 2.7 °C which is close to the present day annual mean temperature. NGTs estimated for the Allerød – Younger Dryas – Holocene are in good agreement with paleo-temperature reconstructions from geochemical and biological proxies in lake sediments. The observed deviations between the different paleo-temperature reconstructions are minor if the according temperatures are rescaled to annual mean temperatures and are primarily attributed to the chronological tuning of the different records. As in other stalagmites, NGT reconstructions of the recently precipitated stalagmite (‘young’) samples again are biased, most likely due to diffusive gas loss during sample processing. We speculate that a reduced retentivity of noble gases during experimental sample processing is a general feature of recently precipitated stalagmite fabrics. Therefore, the recently precipitated stalagmite samples do not allow the reliable NGT determination given the currently available experimental methods. Nevertheless, this study makes the case that noble gas thermometry can be applied to stalagmites for physically based paleo-temperature reconstruction, also for stalagmites grown during cold climatic conditions

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Stalagmite water content as a proxy for drip water supply in Switzerland

ISSN:1029-7006ISSN:1607-796

Noble-gas evidence on the groundwater origin in the coastal plain of Salalah, Oman

ISSN:1029-7006ISSN:1607-796

Hydrogeochemical and multi-tracer investigations of arsenic-affected aquifers in semi-arid West Africa

The semi-arid Sahel regions of West Africa rely heavily on groundwater from shallow to moderately deep (10 μg/L) stemming from the oxidation of sulphide minerals (pyrite, arsenopyrite) in mineralised zones. These aquifers are still little investigated, especially concerning groundwater residence times and the influence of the annual monsoon season on groundwater chemistry. To gain insights on the temporal aspects of As contamination, we have used isotope tracers (noble gases, 3H, stable water isotopes (2H, 18O)) and performed hydrochemical analyses on groundwater abstracted from tube wells and dug wells in a small study area in southwestern Burkina Faso. Results revealed a great variability in groundwater properties (e.g. redox conditions, As concentrations, water level, residence time) over spatial scales of only a few hundred metres, characteristic of the highly heterogeneous fractured underground. Elevated As levels are found in oxic groundwater of circum-neutral pH and show little relation with any of the measured parameters. Arsenic concentrations are relatively stable over the course of the year, with little effect seen by the monsoon. Groundwater residence time does not seem to have an influence on As concentrations, as elevated As can be found both in groundwater with short (103 a) residence times as indicated by 3He/4He ratios spanning three orders of magnitude. These results support the hypothesis that the proximity to mineralised zones is the most crucial factor controlling As concentrations in the observed redox/pH conditions. The existence of very old water portions with residence times >103 years already at depths of <50 m b.g.l. is a new finding for the shallow fractured bedrock aquifers of Burkina Faso, suggesting that overexploitation of these relatively low-yielding aquifers may be an issue in the future

Estimation of temperature - altitude gradients during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition from Swiss stalagmites

Experimental reconstruction of temperature - altitude in the past remain often elusive. With the development of a combined vacuum crushing and sieving system (CVCS), it is now possible to determine paleotemperatures from the noble gases dissolved in minute amounts of water from inclusions in speleothems that have grown under a broad range of climatic conditions. Here we present noble gas temperature (NGT) estimates during the last deglaciation, which are based on two stalagmites from Milandre Cave (stalagmite M6) and Grotte aux Fées de Vallorbe (stalagmite GEF1), Jura Mountains, Switzerland. The caves are located at different geographical altitudes (Milandre Cave: 373 m a.s.l. and Grotte aux Fées de Vallorbe: 895 m a.s.l.) and thus allow for a reconstruction of the respective temperature – altitude gradients within Switzerland during the last deglaciation. Our reconstruction shows that the past temperature – altitude gradients are within 1σ error in agreement with the modern temperature – altitude gradient, suggesting that the local temperature – altitude gradient was rather stable over time. In addition to the noble gas analysis, we complemented our study with deuterium (δDFI) and oxygen isotope (δ18OFI) measurements of fluid inclusion water. In combination with NGTs, this allows us to reconstruct the past δ18OFI – δDFI / temperature relation. These reconstructions show that the temporal temperature sensitivity of δ18OFI and δDFI (Δ(δ18OFI) / Δ(T) and Δ(δDFI) /Δ(T)) seems to be stable over time and therefore support the use of water isotopes for temperature reconstructions in Switzerland