A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Natural Hazards 74 (2014): 123-142, doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1294-1.A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating different sources and source parameters of meteotsunamis. Parameterization of atmospheric disturbances and numerical modeling is performed for the computation of maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near the coast. A historical record of pressure disturbances is used to establish a continuous analytic distribution of each parameter as well as the overall Poisson rate of occurrence. A demonstration study is presented for the northeast U.S. in which only isolated atmospheric pressure disturbances from squall lines and derechos are considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations are used to determine the historical parameters of squall lines from 2000 to 2013. The probabilistic equations are implemented using a Monte Carlo scheme, where a synthetic catalog of squall lines is compiled by sampling the parameter distributions. For each entry in the catalog, ocean wave amplitudes are computed using a numerical hydrodynamic model. Aggregation of the results from the Monte Carlo scheme results in a meteotsunami hazard curve that plots the annualized rate of exceedance with respect to maximum event amplitude for a particular location along the coast. Results from using multiple synthetic catalogs, resampled from the parent parameter distributions, yield mean and quantile hazard curves. Further refinements and improvements for probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis are discussed

Limits to Sympathetic Evaporative Cooling of a Two-Component Fermi Gas

We find a limit cycle in a quasi-equilibrium model of evaporative cooling of a two-component fermion gas. The existence of such a limit cycle represents an obstruction to reaching the quantum ground state evaporatively. We show that evaporatively the \beta\mu ~ 1. We speculate that one may be able to cool an atomic fermi gas further by photoassociating dimers near the bottom of the fermi sea.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev

Negative effects of parasite exposure and variable thermal stress on brown trout (Salmo trutta) under future climatic and hydropower production scenarios

Future water temperature changes may have a profound impact on fish-parasite interactions. However, while the effect of temperature on fish, and particularly salmonids, is well-understood, its combined effects with parasitic exposure are not. Here, we use a multi-stage experimental approach to explore the impact of increased water temperatures consistent with persistent climate change-induced warming and extreme thermal fluctuations from hydropower (thermopeaking) on brown trout alevins and fry before and during exposure to Saprolegnia parasitica. Parasite exposure had the strongest and most significant effect on survival of both host life stages. The combination of parasite exposure, thermal pre-conditioning and the ongoing thermal regime had a weak but significant influence on alevin mortality. Both parasite-exposed alevin and fry experienced increased mortality when a constant increase in temperature was combined with intermittent thermal increases. The outcomes of this experimental approach provide the basis for future studies scaling up the potential impacts of temperatures and parasite exposure that key fish species may face in the wild. They also highlight the effects of anthropogenic changes on brown trout populations, as pressures on aquatic organisms are likely to intensify in future climate scenarios with increased hydropower development and thermopeaking, particularly in the presence of pathogens

On the contribution of the horizontal sea-bed displacements into the tsunami generation process

The main reason for the generation of tsunamis is the deformation of the bottom of the ocean caused by an underwater earthquake. Usually, only the vertical bottom motion is taken into account while the horizontal co-seismic displacements are neglected in the absence of landslides. In the present study we propose a methodology based on the well-known Okada solution to reconstruct in more details all components of the bottom coseismic displacements. Then, the sea-bed motion is coupled with a three-dimensional weakly nonlinear water wave solver which allows us to simulate a tsunami wave generation. We pay special attention to the evolution of kinetic and potential energies of the resulting wave while the contribution of the horizontal displacements into wave energy balance is also quantified. Such contribution of horizontal displacements to the tsunami generation has not been discussed before, and it is different from the existing approaches. The methods proposed in this study are illustrated on the July 17, 2006 Java tsunami and some more recent events.Comment: 30 pages; 14 figures. Accepted to Ocean Modelling. Other authors papers can be downloaded at http://www.lama.univ-savoie.fr/~dutykh

A quasi-diagonal approach to the estimation of Lyapunov spectra for spatio-temporal systems from multivariate time series

We describe methods of estimating the entire Lyapunov spectrum of a spatially extended system from multivariate time-series observations. Provided that the coupling in the system is short range, the Jacobian has a banded structure and can be estimated using spatially localised reconstructions in low embedding dimensions. This circumvents the ``curse of dimensionality'' that prevents the accurate reconstruction of high-dimensional dynamics from observed time series. The technique is illustrated using coupled map lattices as prototype models for spatio-temporal chaos and is found to work even when the coupling is not strictly local but only exponentially decaying.Comment: 13 pages, LaTeX (RevTeX), 13 Postscript figs, to be submitted to Phys.Rev.

Evaporative Cooling of a Two-Component Degenerate Fermi Gas

We derive a quantum theory of evaporative cooling for a degenerate Fermi gas with two constituents and show that the optimum cooling trajectory is influenced significantly by the quantum statistics of the particles. The cooling efficiency is reduced at low temperatures due to Pauli blocking of available final states in each binary collision event. We compare the theoretical optimum trajectory with experimental data on cooling a quantum degenerate cloud of potassium-40, and show that temperatures as low as 0.3 times the Fermi temperature can now be achieved.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

Theory and computation of covariant Lyapunov vectors

Lyapunov exponents are well-known characteristic numbers that describe growth rates of perturbations applied to a trajectory of a dynamical system in different state space directions. Covariant (or characteristic) Lyapunov vectors indicate these directions. Though the concept of these vectors has been known for a long time, they became practically computable only recently due to algorithms suggested by Ginelli et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 2007, 130601] and by Wolfe and Samelson [Tellus 59A, 2007, 355]. In view of the great interest in covariant Lyapunov vectors and their wide range of potential applications, in this article we summarize the available information related to Lyapunov vectors and provide a detailed explanation of both the theoretical basics and numerical algorithms. We introduce the notion of adjoint covariant Lyapunov vectors. The angles between these vectors and the original covariant vectors are norm-independent and can be considered as characteristic numbers. Moreover, we present and study in detail an improved approach for computing covariant Lyapunov vectors. Also we describe, how one can test for hyperbolicity of chaotic dynamics without explicitly computing covariant vectors.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure

Sympathetic cooling of an atomic Bose-Fermi gas mixture

Sympathetic cooling of an atomic Fermi gas by a Bose gas is studied by solution of the coupled quantum Boltzmann equations for the confined gas mixture. Results for equilibrium temperatures and relaxation dynamics are presented, and some simple models developed. Our study illustrate that a combination of sympathetic and forced evaporative cooling enables the Fermi gas to be cooled to the degenerate regime where quantum statistics, and mean field effects are important. The influence of mean field effects on the equilibrium spatial distributions is discussed qualitatively.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Phys.Rev.Let

Characteristics and drivers of forest cover change in the post-socialist era in Croatia: evidence from a mixed-methods approach

© 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.Extensive forests in Croatia represent an important biological and economic resource in Europe. They are characterised by heterogeneity in forest management practices dating back to the socialist planned economy of the pre-1991 era. In this study we investigated the difference in rates of deforestation and reforestation in private- and state-owned forests during the post-socialist period and the causal drivers of change. The selected region of Northern Croatia is characterised by a high percentage of privately owned forests with minimal national monitoring and control. We used a mixed-methods approach which combines remote sensing, statistical modelling and a household-based questionnaire survey to assess the rates of forest cover change and factors influencing those changes. The results show that predominantly privately owned forests in Northern Croatia have recorded a net forest loss of 1.8 % during the 1991–2011 period, while Croatia overall is characterised by a 10 % forest cover increase in predominantly state-owned forests. Main factors influencing forest cover changes in private forests are slope, altitude, education structure, population age and population density. The results also show that the deforestation in private forests is weakening overall, mostly due to the continuation of the de-agrarisation and de-ruralisation processes which began during socialism