A model for control of HIV/AIDS with parental care

In this study we investigate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in a population which experiences a significant flow of immigrants. We derive and analyze a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of HIV infection among the immigrant youths and how parental care can minimize or prevent the spread of the disease in the population. We analyze the model with both screening control and parental care, then investigate its stability and sensitivity behavior. We also conduct both qualitative and quantitative analyses. It is observed that in the absence of infected youths, disease-free equilibrium is achievable and is globally asymptotically stable. We establish optimal strategies for the control of the disease with screening and parental care, and provide numerical simulations to illustrate the analytic results.Web of Scienc

Phase II trial of neoadjuvant pemetrexed plus cisplatin followed by surgery and radiation in the treatment of pleural mesothelioma

BACKGROUND: Malignant pleural mesothelioma is an aggressive tumor that has a poor prognosis and is resistant to unimodal approaches. Multimodal treatment has provided encouraging results. METHODS: Phase II, open-label study of the combination of chemotherapy (pemetrexed 500 mg/m(2)+cisplatin 75 mg/m(2) IV every 21 days × 3 cycles), followed by surgery (en-bloc extrapleural pneumonectomy, 3–8 weeks after chemotherapy) and hemithoracic radiation (total radiation beam 54 Gy, received 4–8 weeks post-surgery). The primary endpoint was event-free survival, defined as the time from enrollment to time of first observation of disease progression, death due to any cause, or early treatment discontinuation. RESULTS: Fifty-four treatment-naïve patients with T1-3 N0-2 malignant pleural mesothelioma were enrolled, 52 (96.3%) completed chemotherapy, 45 (83.3%) underwent surgery, 22 (40.7%) completed the whole treatment including 90-day post-radiation follow-up. The median event-free survival was 6.9 months (95%CI: 5.0-10.5), median overall survival was 15.5 months (95%CI 11.0-NA) while median time-to-tumor response was 4.8 months (95%CI: 2.5-8.0). Eighteen (33.3%) and 13 (24.1%) patients were still event-free after 1 and 2 years, respectively. The most common treatment-emergent adverse events were nausea (63.0%), anemia (51.9%) and hypertension (42.6%). Following two cardiopulmonary radiation-related deaths the protocol was amended (21 [38.9%] patients were already enrolled in the study): the total radiation beam was reduced from 54 Gy to 50.4 Gy and a more accurate selection of patients was recommended. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of pemetrexed plus cisplatin followed by surgery and hemithoracic radiation is feasible and has a manageable toxicity profile in carefully selected patients. It may be worthy of further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrial.com registrationID #NCT00087698

Long-term, Prolonged-release Tacrolimus-based Immunosuppression in De Novo Liver Transplant Recipients : 5-year Prospective Follow-up of Patients in the DIAMOND Study

Background. Immunosuppression with calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs) is reportedly associated with risk of renal impairment in liver transplant recipients. It is believed that this can be mitigated by decreasing initial exposure to CNIs or delaying CNI introduction until 3-4 d posttransplantation. The ADVAGRAF studied in combination with mycophenolate mofetil and basili ximab in liver transplantation (DIAMOND) trial evaluated different administration strategies for prolonged-release tacrolimus (PR-T). Methods. DIAMOND was a 24-wk, open-label, phase 3b trial in de novo liver transplant recipients randomized to: PR-T 0.2 mg/kg/d (Arm 1); PR-T 0.15-0.175 mg/kg/d plus basiliximab (Arm 2); or PR-T 0.2 mg/kg/d delayed until day 5 posttransplant plus basiliximab (Arm 3). In a 5-y follow-up, patients were maintained on an immunosuppressive regimen according to standard clinical practice (NCT02057484). Primary endpoint: graft survival (Kaplan-Meier analysis). Results. Follow-up study included 856 patients. Overall graft survival was 84.6% and 73.5% at 1 and 5 y post transplant, respectively. Five-year rates for Arms 1, 2, and 3 were 74.7%, 71.5%, and 74.5%, respectively. At 5 y, death-censored graft survival in the entire cohort was 74,7%. Overall graft survival in patients remaining on PR-T for z30 d was 79.1%. Graft survival in patients who remained on PR-T at 5 y was 87.3%. Patient survival was 86.6% at 1 y and 76.3% at 5 y, with survival rates similar in the 3 treatment arms at 5 y. Estimated glomerular filtration rate at the end of the 24-wk initial study and 5 y posttransplant was 62.1 and 61.5 mi./min/1.73 m(2), respectively, and was similar between the 3 treatment arms at 5 y. Overall, 18 (2.9%) patients had z1 adverse drug reaction, considered possibly related to PR-T in 6 patients. Conclusions. In the DIAMOND study patient cohort, renal function, graft survival, and patient survival were similar between treatment arms at 5 y posttransplant.Peer reviewe

Comparative pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in stable pediatric allograft recipients converted from immediate-release tacrolimus to prolonged-release tacrolimus formulation.

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Randomised phase 3 open-label trial of first-line treatment with gemcitabine in association with docetaxel or paclitaxel in women with metastatic breast cancer: a comparison of different schedules and treatments

BACKGROUND: This open-label study compared docetaxel/gemcitabine vs. paclitaxel/gemcitabine and a weekly (W) vs. 3-weekly (3 W) schedule in metastatic breast cancer (MBC). METHODS: Patients relapsed after adjuvant/neoadjuvant anthracycline-containing chemotherapy were randomized to: A) gemcitabine 1000 mg/m(2) Day 1,8 + docetaxel 75 mg/m(2) Day 1 q3W; B) gemcitabine 1250 mg/m(2) Day 1,8 + paclitaxel 175 mg/m(2) Day 1 q3W; C) gemcitabine 800 mg/m(2) Day 1,8,15 + docetaxel 30 mg/m(2) Day 1,8,15 q4W; D) gemcitabine 800 mg/m(2) Day 1,15 + paclitaxel 80 mg/m(2) Day 1,8,15 q4W. Primary endpoint was time-to-progression (TTP). Secondary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and overall response rate (ORR). RESULTS: Interim analysis led to accrual interruption (241 patients enrolled of 360 planned). Median TTP (months) was 8.33 (95% CI: 6.19-10.16) with W and 7.51 (95% CI: 5.93-8.33) with 3 W (p=0.319). No differences were observed in median TTP between docetaxel and paclitaxel, with 85.6% and 87.0% of patients progressing, respectively. OS did not differ between regimens/schedules. ORR was comparable between regimens (HR: 0.882; 95% CI: 0.523-1.488; p=0.639), while it was significantly higher in W than in the 3 W (HR: 0.504; 95% CI: 0.299-0.850; p=0.010) schedule. Grade 3/4 toxicities occurred in 69.2% and 71.9% of patients on docetaxel and paclitaxel, and in 65.8% and 75.2% in W and 3 W. CONCLUSIONS: Both treatment regimens showed similar TTP. W might be associated with a better tumour response compared with 3 W. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrial.gov ID NCT0023689

Genetic variation at CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 interacts with smoking status to influence body mass index

Background Cigarette smoking is associated with lower body mass index (BMI), and a commonly cited reason for unwillingness to quit smoking is a concern about weight gain. Common variation in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 gene region (chromosome 15q25) is robustly associated with smoking quantity in smokers, but its association with BMI is unknown. We hypothesized that genotype would accurately reflect smoking exposure and that, if smoking were causally related to weight, it would be associated with BMI in smokers, but not in never smokers. Methods We stratified nine European study samples by smoking status and, in each stratum, analysed the association between genotype of the 15q25 SNP, rs1051730, and BMI. We meta-analysed the results (n = 24 198) and then tested for a genotype × smoking status interaction. Results There was no evidence of association between BMI and genotype in the never smokers {difference per T-allele: 0.05 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): −0.05 to 0.18]; P = 0.25}. However, in ever smokers, each additional smoking-related T-allele was associated with a 0.23 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.13-0.31) lower BMI (P = 8 × 10−6). The effect size was larger in current [0.33 kg/m2 lower BMI per T-allele (95% CI: 0.18-0.48); P = 6 × 10−5], than in former smokers [0.16 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.03-0.29); P = 0.01]. There was strong evidence of genotype × smoking interaction (P = 0.0001). Conclusions Smoking status modifies the association between the 15q25 variant and BMI, which strengthens evidence that smoking exposure is causally associated with reduced BMI. Smoking cessation initiatives might be more successful if they include support to maintain a healthy BM

ADHERE: randomized controlled trial comparing renal function in de novo kidney transplant recipients receiving prolonged-release tacrolimus plus mycophenolate mofetil or sirolimus

ADHERE was a randomized, open-label, Phase IV study comparing renal function at Week 52 postkidney transplant, in patients who received prolongedrelease tacrolimus-based immunosuppressive regimens. On Days 0?27, patients received prolonged-release tacrolimus (initially 0.2 mg/kg/day), corticosteroids, and mycophenolate mofetil (MMF). Patients were randomized on Day 28 to receive either prolonged-release tacrolimus plus MMF (Arm 1) or prolongedrelease tacrolimus (?25% dose reduction on Day 42) plus sirolimus (Arm 2). The primary endpoint was glomerular filtration rate by iohexol clearance (mGFR) at Week 52. Secondary endpoints included eGFR, creatinine clearance (CrCl), efficacy failure (patient withdrawal or graft loss), and patient/graft survival. Tolerability was analyzed. The full-analysis set comprised 569 patients (Arm 1: 287; Arm 2: 282). Week 52 mean mGFR was similar in Arm 1 versus Arm 2 (40.73 vs. 41.75 ml/min/1.73 m2; P = 0.405), as were the secondary endpoints, except composite efficacy failure, which was higher in Arm 2 versus 1 (18.2% vs. 11.5%; P = 0.002) owing to a higher postrandomization withdrawal rate due to adverse events (AEs) (14.4% vs. 5.2%). Results from this study show comparable renal function between arms at Week 52, with fewer AEs leading to study discontinuation with prolonged-release tacrolimus plus MMF (Arm 1) versus lower dose prolonged-release tacrolimus plus sirolimus (Arm 2)

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions