Temporal trends in stillbirth over eight decades in England and Wales:A longitudinal analysis of over 56 million births and lives saved by improvements in maternity care

BACKGROUND: Considering the public health importance of stillbirth, this study quantified the trends in stillbirths over eight decades in England and Wales. METHODS: This longitudinal study utilized the publicly available aggregated data from the Office for National Statistics that captured maternity information for babies delivered in England and Wales from 1940 to 2019. We computed the trends in stillbirth with the associated incidence risk difference, incidence risk ratio, and extra lives saved per decade. RESULTS: From 1940-2019, 56 906 273 births were reported. The stillbirth rate declined (85%) drastically up to the early 1980s. In the initial five decades, the estimated number of deaths per decade further decreased by 67 765 (9.49/1000 births) in 1940-1949, 2569 (0.08/1000 births) in 1950-1959, 9121 (3.50/1000 births) in 1960-1969, 15 262 (2.31/1000 births) in 1970-1979, and 10 284 (1.57/1000 births) in 1980-1989. However, the stillbirth rate increased by an additional 3850 (0.58/1000 births) stillbirths in 1990-1999 and 693 (0.11/1000 births) stillbirths in 2000-2009. The stillbirth rate declined again during 2010-2019, with 3714 fewer stillbirths (0.54/1000 births). The incidence of maternal age 35 years) increased. CONCLUSIONS: The stillbirth rate declined drastically, but the rate of decline slowed in the last three decades. Though teenage pregnancy (<20 years) had reduced, the prevalence of women with a higher risk of stillbirth may have risen due to an increase in advanced maternal age. Improved, more personalised care is required to reduce the stillbirth rate further

Development and Performance Evaluation of a Solar Powered Tomatoes Storage Chamber

Fresh vegetables and fruits, most of which are perishable, are known to be good sources of nutrients supplements with health benefits. Tomatoes fruits fall into this category of food supplements. However, the post-harvest losses associated with tomatoes fruits have greatly reduced the profitability of its farming and have even scared some farmers away from producing it. To reduce the losses and encourage tomatoes farming, this study designed, constructed, and evaluated the performance of a solar-powered electronic storage chamber for tomatoes fruits. In the performance evaluation, the weight, firmness, ripening index, and rate of spoilage of tomatoes fruits stored, within six weeks, at room temperature and atmospheric humidity and in the storage chamber were analyzed and compared per week. The results showed that the weight and firmness of the test experiment deteriorated by 24.87% and 20.83% respectively while that of the control experiment deteriorated by 50.59% and 79.68% respectively. Also, the percentage of cumulative spoilage for the test and control experiment was estimated to be 23.32 and 68.84 respectively showing a significant reduction in the rate of spoilage when the tomatoes were stored in the chamber

Prevalence of hypertension among patients aged 50 and older living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus

Background: Hypertension is one of the common medical conditions observed among patients aged 50 years and elder living with HIV (EPLWH) and to date no systematic review has estimated its global prevalence. Purpose: To conduct a systematic review to estimate the global prevalence of hypertension among EPLWH. Data Sources: PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and Global Health databases for relevant publications up till May 25, 2018. Study Selection: Observational studies (cohort or cross-sectional studies) that estimated the prevalence of hypertension among EPLWH. Data Extraction: Required data were extracted independently by three reviewers and the main outcome was hypertension prevalence among EPLWH. Data Synthesis: The 24 (n = 29,987) eligible studies included were conducted in North America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. A low level bias threat to the estimated hypertension prevalence rates was observed. The global prevalence of hypertension among EPLWH was estimated at 42.0% (95% CI 29.6%–55.4%), I 2 = 100%. The subgroup analysis showed that North America has the highest prevalence of hypertension 50.2% (95% CI 29.2% –71.2%) followed by Europe 37.8% (95% CI 30.7%–45.7%) sub-Saharan Africa 31.9% (95% CI 18.5% –49.2%) and Asia 31.0% (95% CI 26.1%–36.3%). We found the mean age of the participants explaining a considerable part of variation in hypertension prevalence. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that two out of five EPLWH are hypertensive. North America appears to have the highest prevalence of hypertension followed by Europe, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia respectively. Findings from this study can be utilized to integrate hypertension management to HIV management package. (Registration number: CRD42018103069

Metabolic syndrome following hypertensive disorders in pregnancy in a low-resource setting:A cohort study

Objectives: Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HDPs) are associated with risk of future metabolic syndrome. Despite the huge burden of HDPs in sub-Saharan Africa, this association has not been adequately studied in this population. Study design: This was a prospective cohort study on pregnant women recruited between August 2017 - April 2018 and followed up to one year after their deliveries and evaluated for presence of metabolic syndrome at delivery, nine weeks, six months and one year. Main outcome measures: Prevalence of metabolic syndrome Results: A total of 488 pregnant women were included: 410 and 78 with HDPs and normotensive, respectively. None of the normotensive had metabolic syndrome until one year (1.7% = 1 out of 59 observations), while among those with HDPs were 17.4% (71 of 407), 8.7% (23 of 263), 4.7% (11 of 232) and 6.1% (17 of 278), at delivery, nine weeks, six months and one year postpartum, respectively. High BMI and blood pressure were the drivers of metabolic syndrome in this population. The incidence rate in HDPs versus normotensive at one year were, respectively, 57.5/1000 persons’ year (95%CI; 35.8 – 92.6) and 16.9/1000 persons’ years (95%CI; 2.4-118.3), with incidence rate ratio of 3.4/1000 person's years. Only parity significantly predicted the presence of metabolic syndrome at one year [(aOR= 3.26/delivery (95%CI; 1.21-8.79)]. Conclusion: HDPs were associated with a higher incidence of metabolic syndrome up to one year postpartum. Women with HDPs should be routinely screened for metabolic syndrome within the first year postpartum to reduce cardiometabolic risks.</p

Persistent hypertension up to one year postpartum among women with hypertensive disorders in pregnancy in a low-resource setting:A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HDPs) are associated with lifelong cardiovascular disease risk. Persistent postpartum hypertension in HDPs could suggest progression to chronic hypertension. This phenomenon has not been well examined in low- and middle-income countries (LIMCs), and most previous follow-ups typically last for maximally six weeks postpartum. We assessed the prevalence of persistent hypertension up to one year in women with HDPs in a low resource setting and determined associated risk factors. METHODOLOGY: A prospective cohort study of women conducted at eight tertiary health care facilities in seven states of Nigeria. Four hundred and ten women with any HDP were enrolled within 24 hours of delivery and followed up at intervals until one year postpartum. Descriptive statistics were performed to express the participants’ characteristics. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were conducted to identify associated risk factors. RESULTS: Of the 410 women enrolled, 278 were followed up to one year after delivery (follow-up rate 68%). Among women diagnosed with gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, 22.3% (95% CI; 8.3–36.3) and 62.1% (95% CI; 52.5–71.9), respectively, had persistent hypertension at six months and this remained similar at one year 22.3% (95% CI; 5.6–54.4) and 61.2% (95% CI; 40.6–77.8). Maternal age and body mass index were significant risk factors for persistent hypertension at one year [aORs = 1.07/year (95% CI; 1.02–1.13) and 1.06/kg/m(2) (95% CI; 1.01–1.10)], respectively. CONCLUSION: This study showed a substantial prevalence of persistent hypertension beyond puerperium. Health systems in LMICs need to be organized to anticipate and maintain postpartum monitoring until blood pressure is normalized, or women referred or discharged to family physicians as appropriate. In particular, attention should be given to women who are obese, and or of higher maternal age

Risk factors and a predictive model for under-five mortality in Nigeria: evidence from Nigeria demographic and health survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Under-5 mortality is a major public health challenge in developing countries. It is essential to identify determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) childhood mortality because these will assist in formulating appropriate health programmes and policies in order to meet the United Nations MDG goal. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model and identify maternal, child, family and other risk factors associated U5M in Nigeria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Population-based cross-sectional study which explored 2008 demographic and health survey of Nigeria (NDHS) with multivariable logistic regression. Likelihood Ratio Test, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit and Variance Inflation Factor were used to check the fit of the model and the predictive power of the model was assessed with Receiver Operating Curve (ROC curve).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This study yielded an excellent predictive model which revealed that the likelihood of U5M among the children of mothers that had their first marriage at age 20-24 years and ≥ 25 years declined by 20% and 30% respectively compared to children of those that married before the age of 15 years. Also, the following factors reduced odds of U5M: health seeking behaviour, breastfeeding children for > 18 months, use of contraception, small family size, having one wife, low birth order, normal birth weight, child spacing, living in urban areas, and good sanitation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study has revealed that maternal, child, family and other factors were important risk factors of U5M in Nigeria. This study has identified important risk factors that will assist in formulating policies that will improve child survival.</p

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

Background Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries. Methods We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year. Results In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019. Conclusions Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries.Peer reviewe

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18 : a modelling study

Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2 ·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676· 5 (513· 6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81· 1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future