Preparing potential teachers for the transition from employment to teacher training: an evaluative case study of a Maths Enhancement Course

In response to a UK government drive to improve maths teaching in schools, the South West London Maths Enhancement Course (MEC) has been set up though collaboration between three Higher Education institutions (HEIs) to provide an efficient route for non maths graduates in employment to upgrade their subject knowledge and give a smooth transition into teacher training (PGCE). An evaluation of the scheme, measured against Teacher Development Agency (TDA) objectives and success criteria agreed by university staff, involved thematic analysis of focus group discussions and interviews with students and staff during both the MEC and PGCE courses. This has revealed a high level of satisfaction and success related to a number of underlying issues, particularly around student recruitment, curriculum design, peer support and staff collaboration. The model offers an example of practice transferable to a range of programmes aimed at supporting students in the transition between levels and institutions

Mathematical modelling long-term effects of replacing Prevnar7 with Prevnar13 on invasive pneumococcal diseases in England and Wales

England and Wales recently replaced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) with its 13-valent equivalent (PCV13), partly based on projections from mathematical models of the long-term impact of such a switch compared to ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether. A compartmental deterministic model was used to estimate parameters governing transmission of infection and competition between different groups of pneumococcal serotypes prior to the introduction of PCV13. The best-fitting parameters were used in an individual based model to describe pneumococcal transmission dynamics and effects of various options for the vaccination programme change in England and Wales. A number of scenarios were conducted using (i) different assumptions about the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases adjusted for the increasing trend in disease incidence prior to PCV7 introduction in England and Wales, and (ii) a range of values representing serotype replacement induced by vaccination of the additional six serotypes in PCV13. Most of the scenarios considered suggest that ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use would cause an increase in invasive pneumococcal disease incidence, while replacing PCV7 with PCV13 would cause an overall decrease. However, the size of this reduction largely depends on the level of competition induced by the additional serotypes in PCV13. The model estimates that over 20 years of PCV13 vaccination, around 5000–62000 IPD cases could be prevented compared to stopping pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether. Despite inevitable uncertainty around serotype replacement effects following introduction of PCV13, the model suggests a reduction in overall invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in all cases. Our results provide useful evidence on the benefits of PCV13 to countries replacing or considering replacing PCV7 with PCV13, as well as data that can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such a switch

The potential for measles transmission in England

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since the schools vaccination campaign in 1994, measles has been eliminated from England. Maintaining elimination requires low susceptibility levels to keep the effective reproduction number R below 1. Since 1995, however, MMR coverage in two year old children has decreased by more than 10%.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Quarterly MMR coverage data for children aged two and five years resident in each district health authority in England were used to estimate susceptibility to measles by age. The effective reproduction numbers for each district and strategic health authority were calculated and possible outbreak sizes estimated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2004/05, about 1.9 million school children and 300,000 pre-school children were recorded as incompletely vaccinated against measles in England, including more than 800,000 children completely unvaccinated. Based on this, approximately 1.3 million children aged 2–17 years were susceptible to measles. In 14 of the 99 districts, the level of susceptibility is sufficiently high for R to exceed 1, indicating the potential for sustained measles transmission. Eleven of these districts are in London. Our model suggests that the potential exists for an outbreak of up to 100,000 cases. These results are sensitive to the accuracy of reported vaccination coverage data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our analysis identified several districts with the potential for sustaining measles transmission. Many London areas remain at high risk even allowing for considerable under-reporting of coverage. Primary care trusts should ensure that accurate systems are in place to identify unimmunised children and to offer catch-up immunisation for those not up to date for MMR.</p

A Measles Epidemic Threshold in a Highly Vaccinated Population

BACKGROUND: Mass vaccination against measles has successfully lowered the incidence of the disease and has changed the epidemic pattern from a roughly biennial cycle to an irregular sequence of outbreaks. A possible explanation for this sequence of outbreaks is that the vaccinated population is protected by solid herd immunity. If so, we would expect to see the fraction of susceptible individuals remaining below an epidemic threshold. An alternative explanation is the occurrence of occasional localised lapses in herd immunity that allow for major outbreaks in areas with a low vaccine coverage. In that case, we would expect the fraction of susceptible individuals to exceed an epidemic threshold before outbreaks occur. These two explanations for the irregular sequence of measles outbreaks can be tested against observations of both the fraction of susceptible individuals and infection attack rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have estimated both the fraction of susceptible individuals at the start of each epidemic year and the infection attack rates for each epidemic year in the Netherlands over a 28-y period. During this period the vaccine coverage averaged 93%, and there was no sustained measles transmission. Several measles outbreaks occurred in communities with low vaccine coverage, and these ended without intervention. We show that there is a clear threshold value for the fraction of susceptible individuals, below which only minor outbreaks occurred, and above which both minor and major outbreaks occurred. A precise, quantitative relationship exists between the fraction of susceptible individuals in excess of this threshold and the infection attack rate during the major outbreaks. CONCLUSION: In populations with a high but heterogeneous vaccine coverage, measles transmission can be interrupted without establishing solid herd immunity. When infection is reintroduced, a major outbreak can occur in the communities with low vaccine coverage. During such a major outbreak, each additional susceptible individual in excess of the threshold is associated with almost two additional infections. This quantitative relationship offers potential for anticipating both the likelihood and size of future major outbreaks when measles transmission has been interrupted

Dynamic models of pneumococcal carriage and the impact of the Heptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease.

BACKGROUND: The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has been introduced in national immunisation programmes of most industrialised countries and recently in two African GAVI eligible countries (Rwanda and The Gambia). However the long term effects of PCV are still unclear, as beneficial direct and herd immunity effects might be countered by serotype replacement. METHOD: A dynamic, age-structured, compartmental model of Streptococcus pneumoniae transmission was developed to predict the potential impact of PCV7 on the incidence of invasive disease accounting for both herd immunity and serotype replacement effects. The model was parameterised using epidemiological data from England and Wales and pre and post-vaccination surveillance data from the US. RESULTS: Model projections showed that serotype replacement plays a crucial role in determining the overall effect of a PCV7 vaccination programme and could reduce, negate or outweigh its beneficial impact. However, using the estimate of the competition parameter derived from the US post-vaccination experience, an infant vaccination programme would prevent 39,000 IPD cases in the 20 years after PCV7 introduction in the UK. Adding a catch-up campaign for under 2 or under 5 year olds would provide a further reduction of 1,200 or 3,300 IPD cases respectively, mostly in the first few years of the programme. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that a PCV vaccination programme would eradicate vaccine serotypes from circulation. However, the increase in carriage of non-vaccine serotypes, and the consequent increase in invasive disease, could reduce, negate or outweigh the benefit. These results are sensitive to changes in the protective effect of the vaccine, and, most importantly, to the level of competition between vaccine and non-vaccine types. The techniques developed here can be used to assess the introduction of vaccination programmes in developing countries and provide the basis for cost-effectiveness analyses

Forefoot pathology in rheumatoid arthritis identified with ultrasound may not localise to areas of highest pressure: cohort observations at baseline and twelve months

BackgroundPlantar pressures are commonly used as clinical measures, especially to determine optimum foot orthotic design. In rheumatoid arthritis (RA) high plantar foot pressures have been linked to metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint radiological erosion scores. However, the sensitivity of foot pressure measurement to soft tissue pathology within the foot is unknown. The aim of this study was to observe plantar foot pressures and forefoot soft tissue pathology in patients who have RA.Methods A total of 114 patients with established RA (1987 ACR criteria) and 50 healthy volunteers were assessed at baseline. All RA participants returned for reassessment at twelve months. Interface foot-shoe plantar pressures were recorded using an F-Scan® system. The presence of forefoot soft tissue pathology was assessed using a DIASUS musculoskeletal ultrasound (US) system. Chi-square analyses and independent t-tests were used to determine statistical differences between baseline and twelve months. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to determine interrelationships between soft tissue pathology and foot pressures.ResultsAt baseline, RA patients had a significantly higher peak foot pressures compared to healthy participants and peak pressures were located in the medial aspect of the forefoot in both groups. In contrast, RA participants had US detectable soft tissue pathology in the lateral aspect of the forefoot. Analysis of person specific data suggests that there are considerable variations over time with more than half the RA cohort having unstable presence of US detectable forefoot soft tissue pathology. Findings also indicated that, over time, changes in US detectable soft tissue pathology are out of phase with changes in foot-shoe interface pressures both temporally and spatially.Conclusions We found that US detectable forefoot soft tissue pathology may be unrelated to peak forefoot pressures and suggest that patients with RA may biomechanically adapt to soft tissue forefoot pathology. In addition, we have observed that, in patients with RA, interface foot-shoe pressures and the presence of US detectable forefoot pathology may vary substantially over time. This has implications for clinical strategies that aim to offload peak plantar pressures

Delaying the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza

BACKGROUND: The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks

Interpreting changes in measles genotype: the contribution of chance, migration and vaccine coverage

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In some populations, complete shifts in the genotype of the strain of measles circulating in the population have been observed, with given genotypes being replaced by new genotypes. Studies have postulated that such shifts may be attributable to differences between the fitness of the new and the old genotypes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of measles, simulating the effects of different levels of migration, vaccination coverage and importation of new genotypes on patterns in the persistence and replacement of indigenous genotypes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analyses illustrate that complete replacement in the genotype of the strain circulating in populations may occur because of chance. This occurred in >50% of model simulations, for levels of vaccination coverage and numbers of imported cases per year which are compatible with those observed in several Western European populations (>80% and >3 per million per year respectively) and for the given assumptions in the model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The interpretation of genotypic data, which are increasingly being collected in surveillance programmes, needs to take account of the underlying vaccination coverage and the level of the importation rate of measles cases into the population.</p