Modelowanie salda migracji dla miasta Poznania z wykorzystaniem sztucznych sieci neuronowych

In the article two goals were achieved. The first goal was to model the internal migration balance for the city of Poznań depending on selected economic and social factors (i.e. the number and area of existing apartments, the number of rooms in an apartment, the average usable floor space of an apartment per 1 person, internal migration balance, population change per 1000 inhabitants, total population, divided into women and men, and population density per square kilometer) in 2005–2020 based on statistical data from the Central Statistical Office. The research area covered 22 communes, which together with the city of Poznań formed the Urban Functional Area. Another research goal was to develop an experimental model of an artificial neural network to predict the migration balance for the city of Poznań at two time points – 1 year and 2 years ahead. It is worth noting that artificial neural networks were used in the study, which is a methodological approach that is relatively rarely used in the literature for this purpose.This paper showed that it is possible to use artificial neural networks to accurately predict the migration balance for the city of Poznań. The research showed that the analyzed economic and social factors for the communes included in the Urban Functional Area of Poznań were significantly correlated with the migration balance of the population for the city of Poznań, and thus can be used to predict the migration balance for the city of Poznań. The obtained results confirm the maintenance of a negative migration balance for the city of Poznań with a decreasing trend and a positive migration balance in the neighboring communes with a decreasing tendency.W opracowaniu przeprowadzono modelowanie salda migracji wewnętrznych dla miasta Poznania w zależności od wybranych wskaźników (tj. liczby i powierzchni istniejących mieszkań, liczby izb w mieszkaniu, przeciętnej powierzchni użytkowej mieszkania na 1 osobę, salda migracji wewnętrznych, zmiany liczby ludności na 1000 mieszkańców, liczby ludności ogółem, z podziałem na kobiety i mężczyzn, oraz gęstości zaludnienia na 1 km2) charakteryzujących Miejski Obszar Funkcjonalny Poznania (łącznie 22 gminy) w latach 2005–2020 na podstawie danych statystycznych pochodzących z Banku Danych Lokalnych GUS. Wykazano, że wskaźniki te w istotny sposób wpływają na saldo migracji ludności miasta Poznania, a co za tym idzie – mogą być wykorzystywane do prognozowania salda migracji dla tego miasta. Ponadto opracowano eksperymentalny model sztucznej sieci neuronowej do przewidywania salda migracji dla miasta Poznania na 1 rok oraz na 2 lata do przodu. Stwierdzono, że możliwe jest wykorzystanie sztucznych sieci neuronowych do trafnego prognozowania salda migracji dla Poznania. Otrzymane wyniki potwierdzają utrzymanie się ujemnego salda migracji dla miasta Poznania z tendencją zmniejszania się tego trendu oraz dodatnie saldo migracji w gminach ościennych z tendencją zmniejszania się

Many Labs 5:Testing pre-data collection peer review as an intervention to increase replicability

Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3?9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276?3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (?r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00?.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19?.50)

Assessment of Drilling Waste Addition on the Salinity of Soils and Growth of Selected Grass Species

The soils that sustained damage from the mining industry are threatened with high salinity. The aim of the research involved assessing the impact of drilling wastes on the salinity of soils, and the influence of salinity on the germination and growth of various grass species. The research involved the energy, germination capacity and growth of four grass species: tall fescue Festuca arundinacea (cv. Odys), red fescue Festuca rubra (cv. Areta), perennial ryegrass Lolium perenne (cv. Gazon) and smooth meadow grass Poa pratensis (cv. Alicja) in the soils with various amount of drilling wastes addition and different salinity. The drilling waste addition in the amount of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 30% (v/v) (pH 4.1, EC = 8.84 µS/cm) significantly increased the salinity of the prepared mixtures to the levels of >2.5 dS/m, determined as harmful for most plants. Studies indicated that 5%, 10% and 15% (v/v) drill cuttings addition does not inhibit the growth of the considered grasses, while at the 25% addition of drill cuttings, the length of seedlings and roots is halved in comparison to the control sample without drilling waste addition. The mixture with 30% drilling waste addition, characterized by the salinity of 18 dS/m, inhibits the growth of all considered plant species. The conducted discrimination analysis indicated that cv. Gazon and cv. Odys differ from the other considered grass species, exhibiting the highest resistance to salinity caused by drilling waste addition. In turn, cv. Alicja was characterized by the lowest tolerance to salinity

Grazing of Native Livestock Breeds as a Method of Grassland Protection in Roztocze National Park, Eastern Poland

The studies were conducted in a forest settlement in Roztocze National Park (eastern Poland). The aim of the study was to evaluate the vegetation of two pastures depending on the type of use in the context of grassland protection, identify the trends of species composition changes, and analyse the yield and nutritional value of the biomass in the context of animal welfare. The studies were conducted on permanent grasslands varying in terms of fertility and location. Both sites were pastures where native breeds of livestock (Polish Lowland sheep of the Uhrusk and Polish Konik) were grazing. The fertile pasture was represented by the developing Lolio-Cynosuretum association, while the poor dry pasture – by a community with Common Bent (Agrostis capillaris L.) and a community with Mouse-Ear Hawkweed (Hieracium pilosella L.). The greatest changes over time were observed in the mowed site in the fertile pasture (increased share of tall grasses) and in the abandoned poor dry pasture (increased share of herbs and weeds). Livestock grazing conducted from 2010 influenced the stabilisation of the species composition. Tree and shrub seedlings were systematically eaten by livestock, which evidences a positive impact of grazing on the preservation of permanent grasslands in Roztocze National Park where forest ecosystems predominate. The assessment of the species composition and yielding indicated that the fertile pasture was characterised by good value while the poor pasture – low or sufficient value. In terms of nutrient yield and content, these pastures were poor or very poor, and their nutritive potential was largely dependent on the meteorological conditions. While the livestock density in the pastures, ranging from 1.1 to 1.5 LSU ha–1 in the years under study, was appropriate, grazing should be limited in the summer months, particularly in periods of drought, by reducing the number of animals or by additional feeding to ensure their welfare

Crystal-field states and defect levels in candidate quantum spin ice Ce2_{2}Hf2_{2}O7_{7}

International audienceWe report the synthesis of powder and single-crystal samples of cerium pyrohafnate and their characterization using neutron diffraction, thermogravimetry and x-ray absorption spectroscopy. We evaluate the amount of nonmagnetic Ce4+ defects and use this result to interpret the spectrum of crystal-electric field transitions observed using inelastic neutron scattering. The analysis of these single-ion transitions indicates the dipole-octupole nature of the ground-state doublet and a significant degree of spin-lattice coupling. The single-ion properties calculated from the crystal-electric field parameters obtained spectroscopically are in good agreement with bulk magnetic susceptibility data down to about 1 K. Below this temperature, the behavior of the magnetic susceptibility indicates a correlated regime without showing any sign of magnetic long-range order or freezing down to 0.08 K. We conclude that Ce2Hf2O7 is another candidate to investigate exotic correlated states of quantum matter, such as the octupolar quantum spin ice recently argued to exist in the isostructural compounds Ce2Sn2O7 and Ce2Zr2O7

Metabolic syndrome is associated with similar long-term prognosis in non-obese and obese patients. An analysis of 45 615 patients from the nationwide LIPIDOGRAM 2004-2015 cohort studies

Aims We aimed to evaluate the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and long-term all-cause mortality. Methods The LIPIDOGRAM studies were carried out in the primary care in Poland in 2004, 2006 and 2015. MetS was diagnosed based on the National Cholesterol Education Program, Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATP III) and Joint Interim Statement (JIS) criteria. The cohort was divided into four groups: non-obese patients without MetS, obese patients without MetS, non-obese patients with MetS and obese patients with MetS. Differences in all-cause mortality was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Results 45,615 participants were enrolled (mean age 56.3, standard deviation: 11.8 years; 61.7% female). MetS was diagnosed in 14,202 (31%) by NCEP/ATP III criteria, and 17,216 (37.7%) by JIS criteria. Follow-up was available for 44,620 (97.8%, median duration 15.3 years) patients. MetS was associated with increased mortality risk among the obese (hazard ratio, HR: 1.88 [95% CI, 1.79-1.99] and HR: 1.93 [95% CI 1.82-2.04], according to NCEP/ATP III and JIS criteria, respectively) and non-obese individuals (HR: 2.11 [95% CI 1.85-2.40] and 1.7 [95% CI, 1.56-1.85] according to NCEP/ATP III and JIS criteria respectively). Obese patients without MetS had a higher mortality risk than non-obese patients without MetS (HR: 1.16 [95% CI 1.10-1.23] and HR: 1.22 [95%CI 1.15-1.30], respectively in subgroups with NCEP/ATP III and JIS criteria applied). Conclusions MetS is associated with increased all-cause mortality risk in non-obese and obese patients. In patients without MetS obesity remains significantly associated with mortality. The concept of metabolically healthy obesity should be revised