Plausibility functions and exact frequentist inference

In the frequentist program, inferential methods with exact control on error rates are a primary focus. The standard approach, however, is to rely on asymptotic approximations, which may not be suitable. This paper presents a general framework for the construction of exact frequentist procedures based on plausibility functions. It is shown that the plausibility function-based tests and confidence regions have the desired frequentist properties in finite samples---no large-sample justification needed. An extension of the proposed method is also given for problems involving nuisance parameters. Examples demonstrate that the plausibility function-based method is both exact and efficient in a wide variety of problems.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, 3 table

Statistical assessment of the learning curves of health technologies

OBJECTIVES: (1) To describe systematically studies that directly assessed the learning curve effect of health technologies. (2) Systematically to identify 'novel' statistical techniques applied to learning curve data in other fields, such as psychology and manufacturing. (3) To test these statistical techniques in data sets from studies of varying designs to assess health technologies in which learning curve effects are known to exist. METHODS - STUDY SELECTION (HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW): For a study to be included, it had to include a formal analysis of the learning curve of a health technology using a graphical, tabular or statistical technique. METHODS - STUDY SELECTION (NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH): For a study to be included, it had to include a formal assessment of a learning curve using a statistical technique that had not been identified in the previous search. METHODS - DATA SOURCES: Six clinical and 16 non-clinical biomedical databases were searched. A limited amount of handsearching and scanning of reference lists was also undertaken. METHODS - DATA EXTRACTION (HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW): A number of study characteristics were abstracted from the papers such as study design, study size, number of operators and the statistical method used. METHODS - DATA EXTRACTION (NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH): The new statistical techniques identified were categorised into four subgroups of increasing complexity: exploratory data analysis; simple series data analysis; complex data structure analysis, generic techniques. METHODS - TESTING OF STATISTICAL METHODS: Some of the statistical methods identified in the systematic searches for single (simple) operator series data and for multiple (complex) operator series data were illustrated and explored using three data sets. The first was a case series of 190 consecutive laparoscopic fundoplication procedures performed by a single surgeon; the second was a case series of consecutive laparoscopic cholecystectomy procedures performed by ten surgeons; the third was randomised trial data derived from the laparoscopic procedure arm of a multicentre trial of groin hernia repair, supplemented by data from non-randomised operations performed during the trial. RESULTS - HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW: Of 4571 abstracts identified, 272 (6%) were later included in the study after review of the full paper. Some 51% of studies assessed a surgical minimal access technique and 95% were case series. The statistical method used most often (60%) was splitting the data into consecutive parts (such as halves or thirds), with only 14% attempting a more formal statistical analysis. The reporting of the studies was poor, with 31% giving no details of data collection methods. RESULTS - NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH: Of 9431 abstracts assessed, 115 (1%) were deemed appropriate for further investigation and, of these, 18 were included in the study. All of the methods for complex data sets were identified in the non-clinical literature. These were discriminant analysis, two-stage estimation of learning rates, generalised estimating equations, multilevel models, latent curve models, time series models and stochastic parameter models. In addition, eight new shapes of learning curves were identified. RESULTS - TESTING OF STATISTICAL METHODS: No one particular shape of learning curve performed significantly better than another. The performance of 'operation time' as a proxy for learning differed between the three procedures. Multilevel modelling using the laparoscopic cholecystectomy data demonstrated and measured surgeon-specific and confounding effects. The inclusion of non-randomised cases, despite the possible limitations of the method, enhanced the interpretation of learning effects. CONCLUSIONS - HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW: The statistical methods used for assessing learning effects in health technology assessment have been crude and the reporting of studies poor. CONCLUSIONS - NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH: A number of statistical methods for assessing learning effects were identified that had not hitherto been used in health technology assessment. There was a hierarchy of methods for the identification and measurement of learning, and the more sophisticated methods for both have had little if any use in health technology assessment. This demonstrated the value of considering fields outside clinical research when addressing methodological issues in health technology assessment. CONCLUSIONS - TESTING OF STATISTICAL METHODS: It has been demonstrated that the portfolio of techniques identified can enhance investigations of learning curve effects

An efficient screening method for computer experiments

Computer simulators of real-world processes are often computationally expensive and require many inputs. The problem of the computational expense can be handled using emulation technology; however, highly multidimensional input spaces may require more simulator runs to train and validate the emulator. We aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem by screening the simulator’s inputs for nonlinear effects on the output rather than distinguishing between negligible and active effects. Our proposed method is built upon the elementary effects (EE) method for screening and uses a threshold value to separate the inputs with linear and nonlinear effects. The technique is simple to implement and acts in a sequential way to keep the number of simulator runs down to a minimum, while identifying the inputs that have nonlinear effects. The algorithm is applied on a set of simulated examples and a rabies disease simulator where we observe run savings ranging between 28% and 63% compared with the batch EE method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online

Simultaneous adjustment of bias and coverage probabilities for confidence intervals

A new method is proposed for the correction of confidence intervals when the original interval does not have the correct nominal coverage probabilities in the frequentist sense. The proposed method is general and does not require any distributional assumptions. It can be applied to both frequentist and Bayesian inference where interval estimates are desired. We provide theoretical results for the consistency of the proposed estimator, and give two complex examples, on confidence interval correction for composite likelihood estimators and in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), to demonstrate the wide applicability of the new method. Comparison is made with the double-bootstrap and other methods of improving confidence interval coverage

An interlaboratory study to find an alternative to the MPN technique for enumerating Escherichia coli in shellfish

8 páginas, 4 tablas, 3 figuras.-- I. D. Ogden ... et al.Nine laboratories in eight countries tested 16 batches of common mussels (Mytilus edulis) over a 32 week period in order to find an alternative to the Most Probable Number (MPN) technique to enumerate E. coli. The alternatives investigated included the 3M Petrifilm system, the Merck Chromocult agar method and a Malthus conductance technique. The Petrifilm was found to be unsuitable and was subsequently dropped from the trial. After 669 analyses, a correlation of 0.83 was observed for log E. coli counts between the MPN and Chromocult methods and there was no significant evidence that either method tended to give higher readings than the other. The MPN was slightly better than the Chromocult method for repeatability but the Chromocult was slightly better for reproducibility. However, the observed differences are probably too small to be of practical importance. On the basis of these data therefore, the two methods appear equally suitable for E. coli enumeration in shellfish. There were poor correlations between these methods and the Malthus technique. A small but significant number of samples tested positive on the Malthus instrument but were recorded negative on the MPN and Chromocult tests. Subsequent analysis positively identified E. coli from these Malthus assays. After statistical analysis, errors were noted in both the MPN and Chromocult methods but it was found that there would be no statistical differences if the Chromocult agar were used as an alternative to the MPN techniqueEuropean Commission DGXIV (Fisheries)Peer reviewe