Controlled stratification for quantile estimation

In this paper we propose and discuss variance reduction techniques for the estimation of quantiles of the output of a complex model with random input parameters. These techniques are based on the use of a reduced model, such as a metamodel or a response surface. The reduced model can be used as a control variate; or a rejection method can be implemented to sample the realizations of the input parameters in prescribed relevant strata; or the reduced model can be used to determine a good biased distribution of the input parameters for the implementation of an importance sampling strategy. The different strategies are analyzed and the asymptotic variances are computed, which shows the benefit of an adaptive controlled stratification method. This method is finally applied to a real example (computation of the peak cladding temperature during a large-break loss of coolant accident in a nuclear reactor).Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS186 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Thermal conductivity of organic semi-conducting materials using 3omega and photothermal radiometry techniques

Organic semiconductors for opto-electronic devices show several defects which can be enhanced while increasing the operating temperature. Their thermal management and especially the reduction of their temperature are of great interest. For the heat transfer study, one has to measure the thermal conductivity of thin film organic materials. However the major difficulty for this measurement is the very low thickness of the films which needs the use of very specific techniques. In our work, the 3-omega and photothermal radiometric methods were used to measure the thermal conductivity of thin film organic semiconducting material (Alq3). The measurements were performed as function of the thin film thickness from 45 to 785 nm and also of its temperature from 80 to 350 K. With the 3 omega method, a thermal conductivity value of 0.066 W.m−1K−1 was obtained for Alq3 thin film of 200 nm at room temperature, in close agreement with the photothermal value. Both techniques appear to be complementary: the 3 omega method is easier to implement for large temperature range and small thicknesses down to a few tens of nanometers whereas the photothermal method is more suitable for thicknesses over 200nm since it provides additional information such as the thin film volumetric heat capacity

Microglial Involvement in Neuroplastic Changes Following Focal Brain Ischemia in Rats

The pathogenesis of ischemic stroke is a complex sequence of events including inflammatory reaction, for which the microglia appears to be a major cellular contributor. However, whether post-ischemic activation of microglial cells has beneficial or detrimental effects remains to be elucidated, in particular on long term brain plasticity events. The objective of our study was to determine, through modulation of post-stroke inflammatory response, to what extent microglial cells are involved in some specific events of neuronal plasticity, neurite outgrowth and synaptogenesis. Since microglia is a source of neurotrophic factors, the identification of the brain-derived neurophic factor (BDNF) as possible molecular actor involved in these events was also attempted. As a means of down-regulating the microglial response induced by ischemia, 3-aminobenzamide (3-AB, 90 mg/kg, i.p.) was used to inhibit the poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 (PARP-1). Indeed, PARP-1 contributes to the activation of the transcription factor NF-kB, which is essential to the upregulation of proinflammatory genes, in particular responsible for microglial activation/proliferation. Experiments were conducted in rats subjected to photothrombotic ischemia which leads to a strong and early microglial cells activation/proliferation followed by an infiltration of macrophages within the cortical lesion, events evaluated at serial time points up to 1 month post-ictus by immunostaining for OX-42 and ED-1. Our most striking finding was that the decrease in acute microglial activation induced by 3-AB was associated with a long term down-regulation of two neuronal plasticity proteins expression, synaptophysin (marker of synaptogenesis) and GAP-43 (marker of neuritogenesis) as well as to a significant decrease in tissue BDNF production. Thus, our data argue in favour of a supportive role for microglia in brain neuroplasticity stimulation possibly through BDNF production, suggesting that a targeted protection of microglial cells could represent an innovative approach to potentiate post-stroke neuroregeneration

Exploiting Light Interferences to Generate Micrometer-High Superstructures from Monomeric Azo Materials with Extensive Orientational Mobility

Photochromic azo materials have stirred considerable interest for their ability to mechanically respond to polarized light through large photo-induced migration and orientation processes. In order to apprehend the microscopic dynamics behind the extensive mass transport occurring under interferential illumination, two azo compounds differing by their propen-sity to form hydrogen bonds are synthesized and processed as nondoped glassy thin films. Interferential irradiation using polarization and intensity patterns reveals fully distinct responses. Regular nanometer-high surface relief gratings transform into micrometer superstructures with an ampli-tude ten times higher than the initial film thickness when using the latter polarization. Systematic comparisons between the azo materials in terms of thermal properties, photochromism in solution and in the solid state, and photomigration are carried out. The progressive formation of super-structures is ascribed to two successive processes. The first one relates to fast photoinduced migration due to the impinging structured light, and the second one is promoted by slower thermally activated “zig-zag”-like diffu-sion and Z-E thermal relaxation, which in turn requests high orientational mobility of the azo compounds and causes large nanomechanical changes. Such studies should provide novel structural guidelines in terms of material fluidity to rapidly achieve highly structured and rewritable materials at lilogwht irradiance

Accompagner la démarche de management stratégique de l’exploitation agricole

Développer la démarche de management stratégique dans les exploitations agricoles est une façon d’améliorer leurs performances dans le contexte actuel de l’agriculture. Les auteurs proposent un itinéraire méthodologique qui vise à accompagner les exploitants agricoles dans la construction de stratégies et dans leur traduction opérationnelle. Structuré en trois étapes, il aide à organiser la réflexion autour de la stratégie, puis à la formaliser, pour ensuite la piloter grâce à un tableau de bord stratégique. Le lien entre ces trois étapes est assuré par la construction d’une carte causale. Cet itinéraire a été construit dans le cadre du programme de recherche-action PerfEA avec des établissements publics locaux d’enseignement agricole. L’itinéraire s’adresse à tout type d’exploitation agricole et sa mise en œuvre nécessite la présence d’un conseiller.Strategic management is a relevant approach to support farmers in managing their farm and in coping with the current agricultural challenges. In this article we propose a methodological route which aims at enabling farmers to design their strategy and to implement them. The route is organized along three steps: it helps to organize the strategic thinking; to formalize the strategy by defining priorities and strategic lines; to draw up a strategic monitoring plan (the balanced scorecard). The link between the different steps is provided by the design of a causal mapping. This methodological route was built within an action research project entitled PerfEA (Global Performance for Farm) including farms belonging to public training schools. It suits all kind of farms and requires an agricultural adviser to accompany farmers in the design process of the strategy and its implementation

Soil organic carbon models need independent time-series validation for reliable prediction

Numerical models are crucial to understand and/or predict past and future soil organic carbon dynamics. For those models aiming at prediction, validation is a critical step to gain confidence in projections. With a comprehensive review of ~250 models, we assess how models are validated depending on their objectives and features, discuss how validation of predictive models can be improved. We find a critical lack of independent validation using observed time series. Conducting such validations should be a priority to improve the model reliability. Approximately 60% of the models we analysed are not designed for predictions, but rather for conceptual understanding of soil processes. These models provide important insights by identifying key processes and alternative formalisms that can be relevant for predictive models. We argue that combining independent validation based on observed time series and improved information flow between predictive and conceptual models will increase reliability in predictions

Patent Foramen Ovale Closure or Anticoagulation vs. Antiplatelets after Stroke

BACKGROUND Trials of patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure to prevent recurrent stroke have been inconclusive. We investigated whether patients with cryptogenic stroke and echocardiographic features representing risk of stroke would benefit from PFO closure or anticoagulation, as compared with antiplatelet therapy. METHODS In a multicenter, randomized, open-label trial, we assigned, in a 1:1:1 ratio, patients 16 to 60 years of age who had had a recent stroke attributed to PFO, with an associated atrial septal aneurysm or large interatrial shunt, to transcatheter PFO closure plus long-term antiplatelet therapy (PFO closure group), antiplatelet therapy alone (antiplatelet-only group), or oral anticoagulation (anticoagulation group) (randomization group 1). Patients with contraindications to anticoagulants or to PFO closure were randomly assigned to the alternative noncontraindicated treatment or to antiplatelet therapy (randomization groups 2 and 3). The primary outcome was occurrence of stroke. The comparison of PFO closure plus antiplatelet therapy with antiplatelet therapy alone was performed with combined data from randomization groups 1 and 2, and the comparison of oral anticoagulation with antiplatelet therapy alone was performed with combined data from randomization groups 1 and 3. RESULTS A total of 663 patients underwent randomization and were followed for a mean (+/- SD) of 5.3 +/- 2.0 years. In the analysis of randomization groups 1 and 2, no stroke occurred among the 238 patients in the PFO closure group, whereas stroke occurred in 14 of the 235 patients in the antiplatelet-only group (hazard ratio, 0.03; 95% confidence interval, 0 to 0.26; P<0.001). Procedural complications from PFO closure occurred in 14 patients (5.9%). The rate of atrial fibrillation was higher in the PFO closure group than in the antiplatelet-only group (4.6% vs. 0.9%, P = 0.02). The number of serious adverse events did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (P = 0.56). In the analysis of randomization groups 1 and 3, stroke occurred in 3 of 187 patients assigned to oral anticoagulants and in 7 of 174 patients assigned to antiplatelet therapy alone. CONCLUSIONS Among patients who had had a recent cryptogenic stroke attributed to PFO with an associated atrial septal aneurysm or large interatrial shunt, the rate of stroke recurrence was lower among those assigned to PFO closure combined with antiplatelet therapy than among those assigned to antiplatelet therapy alone. PFO closure was associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation