dryad-data-skarfur-2019

The data are comprised of total nests numbers of cormorant in Iceland 1994-2015, proportion of juveniles in september surveys, recruitment stocks of cod and saithe (from the Icelandic Marine Research Institute), as well as mean monthly temperatures for January and February (Stykkisholmur, Iceland) and finally the climate indices sub-polar gyre index (SPG-I; Berx and Payne), NAO (Hurrel) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index AMO (Trenberth)

Data from: Numbers and distribution of the Great Cormorant in Iceland: limitation at the regional and metapopulation level

We studied a metapopulation of great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) in Iceland, using complete aerial censuses of nests in 25 years during 1975–2015. Age composition was estimated in 1998–2014 by ground surveys in September and February. Brood size was estimated from aerial photographs in 2007–2015. Weather, food, breeding habitat, and density were considered as explanatory variables when examining numerical and distributional changes in the cormorant metapopulation. In 1975–1990 total nest numbers changed little, very low numbers about 1992 were followed by an annual increase of 3.5% in 1994–2015. Total nest numbers were positively correlated with estimates of spawning stocks of cod and saithe and inversely related to the subpolar gyre index (SPG‐I). During the increase in 1994–2015, average colony size at first increased and then declined. Habitat use also changed: the proportion of nests on small rocky islets (skerries) at first declined, from 69% to 44% in 1995–2003 and then increased again to about 58% in 2012–2014. Habitat changes were probably a response to changed patterns of human disturbance. Breeding density, as nests per km2 sea <20 m deep, was rather uniform among five defined regions in 1975–1996. Thereafter, densities became much higher in two sheltered regions with kelp forests and in one mostly exposed region. A second exposed region remained low and in the third nest numbers declined markedly. Thus, carrying capacity was higher in sheltered regions where cormorant breeding had historically been depressed by human disturbance. Brood size varied little among regions but declined with the years from about 2.5 to 1.8. The proportion of juveniles in September (fecundity) declined in 1998–2015 from over 0.4 to 0.3 and was inversely correlated with year and nest numbers, if outlier years were excluded, suggesting resource limitation. Survival of juvenile cormorants in September–February was estimated at 0.471 ± 0.066 SE. Commercial fish stocks and climate indices were not correlated with the proportion of juveniles. Annual survival of adults (breeding and nonbreeding) was estimated from nest counts and age composition 1999–2014, as 0.850 ± 0.026 SE and showed no trend in 1998–2014. We conclude that the metapopulation of cormorants in Iceland was resource‐limited at two levels: fecundity at the regional and winter survival at the total level

Relationships between long-term demography and weather in a sub-Arctic population of common eider

Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900–2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2–3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote boom years for recruitment

Relationship between summer weather and breeding numbers (no.of nests) 3 years later.

<p>Shown are three common eider colonies in Iceland 1977–2007 (A, B) and 1961–2007 (C). Graphs on the left-hand side have Summer-PC2 on the X-axis whereas graphs on the right-hand side have Summer PC1 on the X-axis (see explanations on top of each column of graphs). Note the differing scales on y- and x axis.</p

Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census data

Density-dependent feedback is recognized as important regulatory mechanisms of population size. Considering the spatial scales over which such feedback operates has advanced our theoretical understanding of metapopulation dynamics. Yet, metapopulation models are rarely fit to time-series data and tend to omit details of the natural history and behavior of long-lived, highly mobile species such as colonial mammals and birds. Seabird metapopulations consist of breeding colonies that are connected across large spatial scales, within a heterogeneous marine environment that is increasingly affected by anthropogenic disturbance. Currently, we know little about the strength and spatial scale of density-dependent regulation and connectivity between colonies. Thus, many important seabird conservation and management decisions rely on outdated assumptions of closed populations that lack density-dependent regulation. We investigated metapopulation dynamics and connectivity in an exemplar seabird species, the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus), using more than a century of census data of breeding colonies distributed across the Northeast Atlantic. We developed and fitted these data to a novel hierarchical Bayesian state-space model, to compare increasingly complex scenarios of metapopulation regulation through lagged, local, regional, and global density dependence, as well as different mechanisms for immigration. Models with conspecific attraction fit the data better than the equipartitioning of immigrants. Considering local and regional density dependence jointly improved model fit slightly, but importantly, future colony size projections based on different mechanistic regulatory scenarios varied widely: a model with local and regional dynamics estimated a lower metapopulation capacity (645,655 Apparently Occupied Site [AOS]) and consequently higher present saturation (63%) than a model with local density dependence (1,367,352 AOS, 34%). Our findings suggest that metapopulation regulation in the gannet is more complex than traditionally assumed, and highlight the importance of using models that consider colony connectivity and regional dynamics for conservation management applications guided by precautionary principles. Our study advances our understanding of metapopulation dynamics in long-lived colonial species and our approach provides a template for the development of metapopulation models for colonially living birds and mammals

Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: insights from a century of seabird colony census data

Density dependent feedbacks are recognised as important regulatory mechanisms of population size. Considering the spatial scales over which such feedbacks operate has advanced our theoretical understanding of metapopulation dynamics. Yet, metapopulation models are rarely fit to time series data and tend to omit details of the natural history and behaviour of long-lived, highly mobile species such as colonial mammals and birds. Seabird metapopulations consist of breeding colonies that are connected across large spatial scales, within a heterogeneous marine environment that is increasingly affected by anthropogenic disturbance. Currently, we know little about the strength and spatial scale of density dependent regulation and connectivity between colonies. Thus, many important seabird conservation and management decisions rely on outdated assumptions of closed populations that lack density dependent regulation. We investigated metapopulation dynamics and connectivity in an exemplar seabird species, the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus), using more than a century of census data of breeding colonies distributed across the Northeast Atlantic. We developed and fit to these data a novel hierarchical Bayesian state-space model, to compare increasingly complex scenarios of metapopulation regulation through lagged, local, regional, and global density dependence, as well as different mechanisms for immigration. Models with conspecific attraction fit the data better than equipartitioning of immigrants. Considering local and regional density dependence jointly improved model fit slightly, but importantly, future colony size projections based on different mechanistic regulatory scenarios varied widely: a model with local and regional dynamics estimated a lower metapopulation capacity (645,655 AOS) and consequently higher present saturation (63 %) than a model with local density dependence (1,367,352 AOS, 34%). Our findings suggest that metapopulation regulation in the gannet is more complex than traditionally assumed, and highlight the importance of using models that consider colony connectivity and regional dynamics for conservation management applications guided by precautionary principles. Our study advances our understanding of metapopulation dynamics in long-lived colonial species and our approach provides a template for the development of metapopulation models for colonially living birds and mammals

Summary of impact analyses for 17 common eider colonies in Iceland 1900–2007, which evaluated impact of certain years on breeding numbers of common eider within each colony.

*<p> = numbers in parentheses indicate significant relationships (α = 0.05) which were not significant according to FDR.</p

Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: insights from a century of seabird colony census data

Compilation of Northern gannet Morus bassanus colony census data from all Northeast Atlantic colonies Summary of all northern gannet colonie