Markov models of territory occupancy: Implications for the management and conservation of competing species

Markov chains have been frequently used in community ecology to model successional changes, but little attention has been paid to its application in population ecology as a tool to explore the outcomes of species interactions. Markov models can be regarded as >null models> that provide predicted values under a no-change scenario against which the consequences of changes in variables of interest can be assessed. Here we explore Markov chains' potential to project population trends of competing species and derive sensible management strategies. To do that we use six years of field data on territory occupancy and turn-over of two competing top predators in a Mediterranean landscape: the golden and Bonelli's eagles. The results suggest that long-term coexistence of both species in the study area is likely, with the main limitation for their coexistence being the difficulties Bonelli's eagles have in colonising new territories that become available. To avoid future declines in the population of Bonelli's eagle, it is important to take into account that the positive effects of conservation strategies focused on encouraging colonization (e.g. decreasing disperser mortality) are likely to be larger than those focused on avoiding territory abandonment (e.g. decreasing adult mortality). Markov chains are likely to be useful to evaluate the relative merit of alternative management options in other territorial species when patterns of territory occupancy are the only reliable data available, as often happens with large predators. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.Peer Reviewe

Scavenging Behaviour of Red Deer Cervus elaphus Linnaeus, 1758 (Artiodactyla: Cervidae) in Eastern Spain

A male red deer was repeatedly observed scavenging in eastern Spain. This is the first time this behaviour of the red deer being recorded by means of camera traps. Scavenging behaviour of herbivores may have implications for wildlife biologists and managers

Political candidates in infotainment programmes and their emotional effects on Twitter: An analysis of the 2015 Spanish general elections pre-campaign season

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Contemporary Social Science on 2019, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/21582041.2017.1367833.[EN] The infotainment format offers candidates an informal setting to show a more personal side of themselves to the electorate, opening themselves up to potential voters. An example of media hybridisation, social networks users can immediately comment on infotainment television programmes, a process known as second screening. These second screeners tend to be especially active in politics. This paper analyses the immediate emotional reaction of these users as they watch infotainment programmes that air during the campaign or pre-campaign seasons and feature political candidates as guests. We have confirmed that second screeners react more emotionally towards the candidate when his or her party is mentioned, and less emotionally when the host displays an aggressive attitude through his or her non-verbal communication. When issues related to the candidate¿s personal lives are discussed, users¿ emotional reactions improve slightly. The relevance of this research stems from the fact that we are witnessing the consolidation of a politics that increasingly strays from ideological questions, and instead focuses on more emotional and personal issues.This work was supported by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad under Grants CSO2013-43960-R and CSO2016-77331-C2-1-R.Baviera, T.; Peris, À.; Cano-Orón, L. (2019). Political candidates in infotainment programmes and their emotional effects on Twitter: An analysis of the 2015 Spanish general elections pre-campaign season. Contemporary Social Science. 14(1):144-156. https://doi.org/10.1080/21582041.2017.1367833S144156141Baum, M. A., & Jamison, A. S. (2006). TheOprahEffect: How Soft News Helps Inattentive Citizens Vote Consistently. The Journal of Politics, 68(4), 946-959. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00482.xBravo-Marquez, F., Mendoza, M., & Poblete, B. (2014). Meta-level sentiment models for big social data analysis. Knowledge-Based Systems, 69, 86-99. doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2014.05.016Casero-Ripollés, A., Feenstra, R. A., & Tormey, S. (2016). Old and New Media Logics in an Electoral Campaign. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 21(3), 378-397. doi:10.1177/1940161216645340Ceron, A., & Splendore, S. (2016). From contents to comments: Social TV and perceived pluralism in political talk shows. New Media & Society, 20(2), 659-675. doi:10.1177/1461444816668187Chadwick, A. (2013). The Hybrid Media System. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199759477.001.0001Dang-Xuan, L., Stieglitz, S., Wladarsch, J., & Neuberger, C. (2013). AN INVESTIGATION OF INFLUENTIALS AND THE ROLE OF SENTIMENT IN POLITICAL COMMUNICATION ON TWITTER DURING ELECTION PERIODS. Information, Communication & Society, 16(5), 795-825. doi:10.1080/1369118x.2013.783608Giglietto, F., & Selva, D. (2014). Second Screen and Participation: A Content Analysis on a Full Season Dataset of Tweets. Journal of Communication, 64(2), 260-277. doi:10.1111/jcom.12085Grabe, M. E., & Bucy, E. P. (2009). Image Bite Politics. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195372076.001.0001Guo, L., & Vargo, C. (2015). The Power of Message Networks: A Big-Data Analysis of the Network Agenda Setting Model and Issue Ownership. Mass Communication and Society, 18(5), 557-576. doi:10.1080/15205436.2015.1045300Harrington, S. (2008). Popular news in the 21st century Time for a new critical approach? Journalism: Theory, Practice & Criticism, 9(3), 266-284. doi:10.1177/1464884907089008López-Rico, C.-M., & Peris-Blanes, À. (2017). Agenda e imagen de los candidatos de las elecciones generales de 2015 en España en programas televisivos de infoentretenimiento. El Profesional de la Información, 26(4), 611. doi:10.3145/epi.2017.jul.05Maruyama, M., Robertson, S. P., Douglas, S., Raine, R., & Semaan, B. (2017). Social Watching a Civic Broadcast. Proceedings of the 2017 ACM Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work and Social Computing. doi:10.1145/2998181.2998340Medhat, W., Hassan, A., & Korashy, H. (2014). Sentiment analysis algorithms and applications: A survey. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 5(4), 1093-1113. doi:10.1016/j.asej.2014.04.011Saif, H., He, Y., & Alani, H. (2012). Semantic Sentiment Analysis of Twitter. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 508-524. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-35176-1_32Shah, D. V., Hanna, A., Bucy, E. P., Lassen, D. S., Van Thomme, J., Bialik, K., … Pevehouse, J. C. W. (2016). Dual Screening During Presidential Debates. American Behavioral Scientist, 60(14), 1816-1843. doi:10.1177/0002764216676245Sullivan, D. G., & Masters, R. D. (1988). «Happy Warriors»: Leaders’ Facial Displays, Viewers’ Emotions, and Political Support. American Journal of Political Science, 32(2), 345. doi:10.2307/2111127Thelwall, M., Buckley, K., Paltoglou, G., Cai, D., & Kappas, A. (2010). Sentiment strength detection in short informal text. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 61(12), 2544-2558. doi:10.1002/asi.21416Vergeer, M., & Franses, P. H. (2015). Live audience responses to live televised election debates: time series analysis of issue salience and party salience on audience behavior. Information, Communication & Society, 19(10), 1390-1410. doi:10.1080/1369118x.2015.1093526Vilares, D., Thelwall, M., & Alonso, M. A. (2015). The megaphone of the people? Spanish SentiStrength for real-time analysis of political tweets. Journal of Information Science, 41(6), 799-813. doi:10.1177/0165551515598926Wohn, D. Y., & Na, E.-K. (2011). Tweeting about TV: Sharing television viewing experiences via social media message streams. First Monday. doi:10.5210/fm.v16i3.336

Dynamic soluble changes in sVEGFR1, HGF, and VEGF promote chemotherapy and bevacizumab resistance: A prospective translational study in the BECOX (GEMCAD 09-01) trial

Despite initial responsiveness, acquired resistance to both bevacizumab and chemotherapy in metastatic colorectal cancer is universal. We have recently published that in vitro, chronically oxaliplatin resistance upregulates soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1, downregulates vascular endothelial growth factor, and also promotes c-MET, b-ca catenin/transcription factor 4, and AKT activation. We tested whether variation in three serum biomarkers such as the natural c-MET ligand (hepatocyte growth factor), soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1, and vascular endothelial growth factor-A was associated with efficacy in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated in the prospective BECOX study. Serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor-A165, soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1, and hepatocyte growth factor were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay method basally and every 3 cycles (at the time of computed tomography evaluation) in a preplanned translational study in the first-line BECOX trial in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with CAPOX plus bevacizumab. Response was evaluated by routine contrast-enhanced computed tomography by RECIST 1.1 by investigator assessment and by three blinded independent radiologists. Ratios between soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1/vascular endothelial growth factor-A and hepatocyte growth factor/vascular endothelial growth factor-A were established and variations through time were related to RECIST 1.1 by investigator assessment and independent radiologist. The BECOX trial included 68 patients, and 27 patients were analyzed in the translational trial. A total of 80 RECIST 1.1 evaluations were done by investigator assessment and 56 by independent radiologist. We found that a 3.22-fold increase in soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1/vascular endothelial growth factor-A by investigator assessment and a 3.06-fold increase in soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1/vascular endothelial growth factor-A by independent radiologist from previous determination were associated with responses compared with 1.38-fold increase by investigator assessment and 1.59 by independent radiologist in non-responders (p= 0.0009 and p = 0.03, respectively). Responders had a 3.36-fold increase in hepatocyte growth factor/vascular endothelial growth factor-A from previous determination by investigator assessment and 3.66-fold increase in hepatocyte growth factor/vascular endothelial growth factor-A by independent radiologist compared with 1.43-fold increase by investigator assessment and 1.53 by independent radiologist for non-responders (p = 0.002 and 0.003, respectively). In conclusion, a decrease in vascular endothelial growth factor-A and an increase in soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1 during chemotherapy and bevacizumab exposure can contribute to both chemotherapy (due to c- MET/b-catenin activation) and bevacizumab (due to low vascular endothelial growth factor requirements) resistance. Because hepatocyte growth factor levels decrease also during acquired resistance, alternative strategies to hepatocyte growth factor–ligand inhibition should be investigatedThis work was supported by “beca SEOM a Jóvenes Investigadores 2009” and by the Emili Letang fellowship to Estela Pineda

Association between Use of Enhanced Recovery after Surgery Protocol and Postoperative Complications in Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in the Postoperative Outcomes Within Enhanced Recovery after Surgery Protocol in Elective Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Study (POWER2)

Importance: The Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) care protocol has been shown to improve outcomes compared with traditional care in certain types of surgery. Objective: To assess the association of use of the ERAS protocols with complications in patients undergoing elective total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, prospective cohort study included patients recruited from 131 centers in Spain from October 22 through December 22, 2018. All consecutive adults scheduled for elective THA or TKA were eligible for inclusion. Patients were stratified between those treated in a self-designated ERAS center (ERAS group) and those treated in a non-ERAS center (non-ERAS group). Data were analyzed from June 15 through September 15, 2019. Exposures: Total hip or knee arthroplasty and perioperative management. Sixteen individual ERAS items were assessed in all included patients, whether they were treated at a center that was part of an established ERAS protocol or not. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was postoperative complications within 30 days after surgery. Secondary outcomes included length of stay and mortality. Results: During the 2-month recruitment period, 6146 patients were included (3580 women [58.2%]; median age, 71 [interquartile range (IQR), 63-76] years). Of these, 680 patients (11.1%) presented with postoperative complications. No differences were found in the number of patients with overall postoperative complications between ERAS and non-ERAS groups (163 [10.2%] vs 517 [11.4%]; odds ratio [OR], 0.89; 95% CI, 0.74-1.07; P =.22). Fewer patients in the ERAS group had moderate to severe complications (73 [4.6%] vs 279 [6.1%]; OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.56-0.96; P =.02). The median overall adherence rate with the ERAS protocol was 50.0% (IQR, 43.8%-62.5%), with the rate for ERAS facilities being 68.8% (IQR, 56.2%-81.2%) vs 50.0% (IQR, 37.5%-56.2%) at non-ERAS centers (P <.001). Among the patients with the highest and lowest quartiles of adherence to ERAS components, the patients with the highest adherence had fewer overall postoperative complications (144 [10.6%] vs 270 [13.0%]; OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.64-0.99; P <.001) and moderate to severe postoperative complications (59 [4.4%] vs 143 [6.9%]; OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.45-0.84; P <.001) and shorter median length of hospital stay (4 [IQR, 3-5] vs 5 [IQR, 4-6] days; OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.96-0.99; P <.001). Conclusions and Relevance: An increase in adherence to the ERAS program was associated with a decrease in postoperative complications, although only a few ERAS items were individually associated with improved outcomes

Differential survival throughout the full annual cycle of a migratory bird presents a life-history trade-off.

Long-distance migrations are among the most physically demanding feats animals perform. Understanding the potential costs and benefits of such behaviour is a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. A hypothetical cost of migration should be outweighed by higher productivity and/or higher annual survival, but few studies on migratory species have been able to directly quantify patterns of survival throughout the full annual cycle and across the majority of a species' range. Here, we use telemetry data from 220 migratory Egyptian vultures Neophron percnopterus, tracked for 3,186 bird months and across approximately 70% of the species' global distribution, to test for differences in survival throughout the annual cycle. We estimated monthly survival probability relative to migration and latitude using a multi-event capture-recapture model in a Bayesian framework that accounted for age, origin, subpopulation and the uncertainty of classifying fates from tracking data. We found lower survival during migration compared to stationary periods (β = −0.816; 95% credible interval: −1.290 to −0.318) and higher survival on non-breeding grounds at southern latitudes (<25°N; β = 0.664; 0.076-1.319) compared to on breeding grounds. Survival was also higher for individuals originating from Western Europe (β = 0.664; 0.110-1.330) as compared to further east in Europe and Asia, and improved with age (β = 0.030; 0.020-0.042). Anthropogenic mortalities accounted for half of the mortalities with a known cause and occurred mainly in northern latitudes. Many juveniles drowned in the Mediterranean Sea on their first autumn migration while there were few confirmed mortalities in the Sahara Desert, indicating that migration barriers are likely species-specific. Our study advances the understanding of important fitness trade-offs associated with long-distance migration. We conclude that there is lower survival associated with migration, but that this may be offset by higher non-breeding survival at lower latitudes. We found more human-caused mortality farther north, and suggest that increasing anthropogenic mortality could disrupt the delicate migration trade-off balance. Research to investigate further potential benefits of migration (e.g. differential productivity across latitudes) could clarify how migration evolved and how migrants may persist in a rapidly changing world

Politics in Spain: A Case of Monitory Democracy

Analysing the current political context in Spain is a major challenge to political theory. Spain is experiencing the accumulation of trends that in recent years have focused the attention of most theorists and political scientists: discrediting of the major parties, falling numbers of party members, disaffection, etc. In parallel, this trend has been accompanied by citizen mobilisations that, since 15 May 2011, are manifest in numerous channels and strategies. The aim of this paper was to analyse the complex Spanish context from the monitory democracy proposal. The results show how in recent years processes of public scrutiny have been consolidated through a range of citizen initiatives. The study offers an in-depth analysis of the main characteristics of the most notable cases and monitoring initiatives, and also reflects on their democratising potential.El análisis del contexto político actual en España es un reto importante para la teoría política. España está experimentando la acumulación de tendencias que en años recientes han centrado la atención de la mayor parte de teóricos y científicos políticos: desacreditación de los principales partidos, caída del número de miembros de los partidos, desafección, etc. Paralelamente, esta tendencia se ha visto acompañada por movilizaciones ciudadanas que, desde el 15 de mayo de 2011, son manifiestas en numerosos canales y estrategias. El objetivo de este documento es analizar el complejo contexto español desde la propuesta de democracia monitorizada. Los resultados muestran que en años recientes se han consolidado los procesos de escrutinio público mediante una serie de iniciativas ciudadanas. El estudio ofrece un análisis en profundidad de las principales características de los casos e iniciativas de monitorización más notables, y reflexiona también sobre su potencial democratizador

Living on the Edge: Assessing the Extinction Risk of Critically Endangered Bonelli’s Eagle in Italy

Background: The population of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) has declined drastically throughout its European range due to habitat degradation and unnatural elevated mortality. There are less than 1500 breeding pairs accounted for in Europe, and the species is currently catalogued as Critically Endangered in Italy, where the 22 territories of Sicily, represent nearly 95% of the entire Italian population. However, despite national and European conservation concerns, the species currently lacks a specific conservation plan, and no previous attempts to estimate the risk of extinction have been made. Methodology/Principal Findings: We incorporated the most updated demographic information available to assess the extinction risk of endangered Bonelli’s eagle in Italy through a Population Viability Analysis. Using perturbation analyses (sensitivity and elasticity), and a combination of demographic data obtained from an assortment of independent methods, we evaluated which demographic parameters have more influence on the population’s fate. We also simulated different scenarios to explore the effects of possible management actions. Our results showed that under the current conditions, Bonelli’s eagle is expected to become extinct in Italy in less than 50 years. Stand-alone juvenile mortality was the most critical demographic parameter with the strongest influence on population persistence with respect to other demographic parameters. Measures aimed at either decreasing juvenile mortality, adult mortality or decreasing both juvenile and adult mortality resulted in equivalent net positive effects on population persistence (population growth rate l.1). In contrast, changes aimed at increasing breeding success had limited positive effects on demographic trends. Conclusions/Significance: Our PVA provides essential information to direct the decision-making process and exposes gaps in our previous knowledge. To ensure the long-term persistence of the species in Italy, measures are urgently needed to decrease both adult mortality due to poaching and juvenile mortality due to nest plundering, the top ranking mortality causes.PLL is supported by a “Juan de la Cierva” postdoctoral grant of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (reference JCI-2011–09588)