Clinical prediction rules for adverse evolution in patients with COVID-19 by the Omicron variant

Objective: We identify factors related to SARS-CoV-2 infection linked to hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality and develop clinical prediction rules. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of 380,081 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 1, 2020 to January 9, 2022, including a subsample of 46,402 patients who attended Emergency Departments (EDs) having data on vital signs. For derivation and external validation of the prediction rule, two different periods were considered: before and after emergence of the Omicron variant, respectively. Data collected included sociodemographic data, COVID-19 vaccination status, baseline comorbidities and treatments, other background data and vital signs at triage at EDs. The predictive models for the EDs and the whole samples were developed using multivariate logistic regression models using Lasso penalization. Results: In the multivariable models, common predictive factors of death among EDs patients were greater age; being male; having no vaccination, dementia; heart failure; liver and kidney disease; hemiplegia or paraplegia; coagulopathy; interstitial pulmonary disease; malignant tumors; use chronic systemic use of steroids, higher temperature, low O2 saturation and altered blood pressure-heart rate. The predictors of an adverse evolution were the same, with the exception of liver disease and the inclusion of cystic fibrosis. Similar predictors were found to be related to hospital admission, including liver disease, arterial hypertension, and basal prescription of immunosuppressants. Similarly, models for the whole sample, without vital signs, are presented. Conclusions: We propose risk scales, based on basic information, easily-calculable, high-predictive that also function with the current Omicron variant and may help manage such patients in primary, emergency, and hospital care. Keywords: COVID-19; Clinical decision rules; Health care; Outcome assessment; SARS-CoV-2

New distance measures for classifying X-ray astronomy data into stellar classes

The classification of the X-ray sources into classes (such as extragalactic sources, background stars, ...) is an essential task in astronomy. Typically, one of the classes corresponds to extragalactic radiation, whose photon emission behaviour is well characterized by a homogeneous Poisson process. We propose to use normalized versions of the Wasserstein and Zolotarev distances to quantify the deviation of the distribution of photon interarrival times from the exponential class. Our main motivation is the analysis of a massive dataset from X-ray astronomy obtained by the Chandra Orion Ultradeep Project (COUP). This project yielded a large catalog of 1616 X-ray cosmic sources in the Orion Nebula region, with their series of photon arrival times and associated energies. We consider the plug-in estimators of these metrics, determine their asymptotic distributions, and illustrate their finite-sample performance with a Monte Carlo study. We estimate these metrics for each COUP source from three different classes. We conclude that our proposal provides a striking amount of information on the nature of the photon emitting sources. Further, these variables have the ability to identify X-ray sources wrongly catalogued before. As an appealing conclusion, we show that some sources, previously classified as extragalactic emissions, have a much higher probability of being young stars in Orion Nebula.Comment: 29 page

The Cherenkov Telescope Array Large Size Telescope

The two arrays of the Very High Energy gamma-ray observatory Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) will include four Large Size Telescopes (LSTs) each with a 23 m diameter dish and 28 m focal distance. These telescopes will enable CTA to achieve a low-energy threshold of 20 GeV, which is critical for important studies in astrophysics, astroparticle physics and cosmology. This work presents the key specifications and performance of the current LST design in the light of the CTA scientific objectives.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, In Proceedings of the 33rd International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC2013), Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). All CTA contributions at arXiv:1307.223

Upper limit for gamma-ray emission above 140 GeV from the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Draco

The nearby dwarf spheroidal galaxy Draco with its high mass to light ratio is one of the most auspicious targets for indirect dark matter searches. Annihilation of hypothetical DM particles can result in high-energy gamma-rays, e.g. from neutralino annihilation in the supersymmetric framework. With the MAGIC telescope a search for a possible DM signal originating from Draco was performed during 2007. The analysis of the data results in a flux upper limit of 1.1x10^-11 photons cm^-2 sec^-1 for photon energies above 140 GeV, assuming a point like source. Furthermore, a comparison with predictions from supersymmetric models is given. While our results do not constrain the mSUGRA phase parameter space, a very high flux enhancement can be ruled out.Comment: Accepted for publication by Astrophysical Journa

First bounds on the high-energy emission from isolated Wolf-Rayet binary systems

High-energy gamma-ray emission is theoretically expected to arise in tight binary star systems (with high mass loss and high velocity winds), although the evidence of this relationship has proven to be elusive so far. Here we present the first bounds on this putative emission from isolated Wolf-Rayet (WR) star binaries, WR 147 and WR 146, obtained from observations with the MAGIC telescope.Comment: (Authors are the MAGIC Collaboration.) Manuscript in press at The Astrophysical Journal Letter

Unfolding of differential energy spectra in the MAGIC experiment

The paper describes the different methods, used in the MAGIC experiment, to unfold experimental energy distributions of cosmic ray particles (gamma-rays). Questions and problems related to the unfolding are discussed. Various procedures are proposed which can help to make the unfolding robust and reliable. The different methods and procedures are implemented in the MAGIC software and are used in most of the analyses.Comment: Submitted to NIM

Implementation of the Random Forest Method for the Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope MAGIC

The paper describes an application of the tree classification method Random Forest (RF), as used in the analysis of data from the ground-based gamma telescope MAGIC. In such telescopes, cosmic gamma-rays are observed and have to be discriminated against a dominating background of hadronic cosmic-ray particles. We describe the application of RF for this gamma/hadron separation. The RF method often shows superior performance in comparison with traditional semi-empirical techniques. Critical issues of the method and its implementation are discussed. An application of the RF method for estimation of a continuous parameter from related variables, rather than discrete classes, is also discussed.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figure

Systematic search for VHE gamma-ray emission from X-ray bright high-frequency BL Lac objects

All but three (M87, BL Lac and 3C 279) extragalactic sources detected so far at very high energy (VHE) gamma-rays belong to the class of high-frequency peaked BL Lac (HBL) objects. This suggested to us a systematic scan of candidate sources with the MAGIC telescope, based on the compilation of X-ray blazars by Donato et al. (2001). The observations took place from December 2004 to March 2006 and cover sources on the northern sky visible under small zenith distances zd < 30 degrees at culmination. The sensitivity of the search was planned for detecting X-ray bright F(1 keV) > 2 uJy) sources emitting at least the same energy flux at 200 GeV as at 1 keV. In order to avoid strong gamma-ray attenuation close to the energy threshold, the redshift of the sources was constrained to values z<0.3. Of the fourteen sources observed, 1ES 1218+304 and 1ES 2344+514 have been detected in addition to the known bright TeV blazars Mrk 421 and Mrk 501. A marginal excess of 3.5 sigma from the position of 1ES 1011+496 was observed and has been confirmed as a source of VHE gamma-rays by a second MAGIC observation triggered by a high optical state (Albert et al. 2007). For the remaining sources, we present here the 99% confidence level upper limits on the integral flux above ~200 GeV. We characterize the sample of HBLs (including all HBLs detected at VHE so far) by looking for correlations between their multi-frequency spectral indices determined from simultaneous optical, archival X-ray, and radio luminosities, finding that the VHE emitting HBLs do not seem to constitute a unique subclass. The absorption corrected gamma-ray luminosities at 200 GeV of the HBLs are generally not higher than their X-ray luminosities at 1 keV.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables, submitted to ApJ (revised version

Discovery of Very High Energy gamma-rays from 1ES 1011+496 at z=0.212

We report on the discovery of Very High Energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission from the BL Lacertae object 1ES1011+496. The observation was triggered by an optical outburst in March 2007 and the source was observed with the MAGIC telescope from March to May 2007. Observing for 18.7 hr we find an excess of 6.2 sigma with an integrated flux above 200 GeV of (1.58$\pm0.32) 10^{-11}$ photons cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. The VHE gamma-ray flux is >40% higher than in March-April 2006 (reported elsewhere), indicating that the VHE emission state may be related to the optical emission state. We have also determined the redshift of 1ES1011+496 based on an optical spectrum that reveals the absorption lines of the host galaxy. The redshift of z=0.212 makes 1ES1011+496 the most distant source observed to emit VHE gamma-rays up to date.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figures, minor changes to fit the ApJ versio