Scenarios and roadmapping - how to navigate an uncertain future

Scenario planning and roadmapping are both well established processes for exploring possible futures. Roadmapping for technology foresight provides a framework for investigating technology developments, interrelationships and critical timescales. However it is increasingly important when new technologies and consumer adoption co-evolve that paradigm changes in the wider social and economic environment are taken into account. A strength of scenario planning is in exploring social and economic factors and hence scenarios can provide the futures context for a roadmapping exercise. Both processes are often used in group work modes over days or months, which allows for stakeholder consensus to develop. This paper describes how scenario planning and roadmapping were combined within a workshop to gather a wide range of external and internal inputs and to challenge organisational thinking. The paper discusses how the process was achieved in one day, the benefits of this arrangement and also its limitations and how to mitigate them

The Universal Cloud and Aerosol Sounding System (UCASS): a low-cost miniature optical particle counter for use in dropsonde or balloon-borne sounding systems

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. An earlier version of this work was published in Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-2019-70.A low-cost miniaturized particle counter has been developed by The University of Hertfordshire (UH) for the measurement of aerosol and droplet concentrations and size distributions. The Universal Cloud and Aerosol Sounding System (UCASS) is an optical particle counter (OPC), which uses wide-angle elastic light scattering for the high-precision sizing of fluid-borne particulates. The UCASS has up to 16 configurable size bins, capable of sizing particles in the range 0.4–40 µm in diameter. Unlike traditional particle counters, the UCASS is an open-geometry system that relies on an external air flow. Therefore, the instrument is suited for use as part of a dropsonde, balloon-borne sounding system, as part of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), or on any measurement platform with a known air flow. Data can be logged autonomously using an on-board SD card, or the device can be interfaced with commercially available meteorological sondes to transmit data in real time. The device has been deployed on various research platforms to take measurements of both droplets and dry aerosol particles. Comparative results with co-located instrumentation in both laboratory and field settings show good agreement for the sizing and counting ability of the UCASS.Peer reviewe

Treatment outcomes of new tuberculosis patients hospitalized in Kampala, Uganda: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In most resource limited settings, new tuberculosis (TB) patients are usually treated as outpatients. We sought to investigate the reasons for hospitalisation and the predictors of poor treatment outcomes and mortality in a cohort of hospitalized new TB patients in Kampala, Uganda. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Ninety-six new TB patients hospitalised between 2003 and 2006 were enrolled and followed for two years. Thirty two were HIV-uninfected and 64 were HIV-infected. Among the HIV-uninfected, the commonest reasons for hospitalization were low Karnofsky score (47%) and need for diagnostic evaluation (25%). HIV-infected patients were commonly hospitalized due to low Karnofsky score (72%), concurrent illness (16%) and diagnostic evaluation (14%). Eleven HIV uninfected patients died (mortality rate 19.7 per 100 person-years) while 41 deaths occurred among the HIV-infected patients (mortality rate 46.9 per 100 person years). In all patients an unsuccessful treatment outcome (treatment failure, death during the treatment period or an unknown outcome) was associated with duration of TB symptoms, with the odds of an unsuccessful outcome decreasing with increasing duration. Among HIV-infected patients, an unsuccessful treatment outcome was also associated with male sex (P = 0.004) and age (P = 0.034). Low Karnofsky score (aHR = 8.93, 95% CI 1.88 - 42.40, P = 0.001) was the only factor significantly associated with mortality among the HIV-uninfected. Mortality among the HIV-infected was associated with the composite variable of CD4 and ART use, with patients with baseline CD4 below 200 cells/µL who were not on ART at a greater risk of death than those who were on ART, and low Karnofsky score (aHR = 2.02, 95% CI 1.02 - 4.01, P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: Poor health status is a common cause of hospitalisation for new TB patients. Mortality in this study was very high and associated with advanced HIV Disease and no use of ART

Habitat use by the endangered white-clawed crayfish Austropotamobius species complex: a systematic review

Understanding habitat requirements is a key part of conserving declining species, particularly when reintroductions are planned as part of the recovery strategy. The white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) has undergone severe declines across its range and is now classified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as ‘endangered’. Translocation of threatened A. pallipes populations to isolated ‘Ark sites’ where threats are minimised is an increasingly used conservation tool. A full feasibility assessment of potential Ark sites, including an assessment of habitat suitability, is recommended within translocation guidelines developed by the IUCN. This literature review employed a systematic search and ‘vote counting’ approach to identify and assess the relative importance of physical habitat requirements of A. pallipes. Many habitat features were positively associated with crayfish presence, in particular: boulder substrate, trees/shading, woody debris, exposed roots, and undercut banks; and habitat use patterns varied among crayfish sexes and size classes. Ark sites should incorporate heterogeneous habitat, with as many of these features as possible, to provide both ample refugia and rich foraging areas

A large scale hearing loss screen reveals an extensive unexplored genetic landscape for auditory dysfunction

The developmental and physiological complexity of the auditory system is likely reflected in the underlying set of genes involved in auditory function. In humans, over 150 non-syndromic loci have been identified, and there are more than 400 human genetic syndromes with a hearing loss component. Over 100 non-syndromic hearing loss genes have been identified in mouse and human, but we remain ignorant of the full extent of the genetic landscape involved in auditory dysfunction. As part of the International Mouse Phenotyping Consortium, we undertook a hearing loss screen in a cohort of 3006 mouse knockout strains. In total, we identify 67 candidate hearing loss genes. We detect known hearing loss genes, but the vast majority, 52, of the candidate genes were novel. Our analysis reveals a large and unexplored genetic landscape involved with auditory function

Luteal angiogenesis and its control

Angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels from pre-existing ones, is critical to luteal structure and function; In addition, it is a complex and tightly regulated process. Not only does rapid and extensive angiogenesis occur to provide the corpus luteum (CL) with an unusually high blood flow and support its high metabolic rate, but in the absence of pregnancy the luteal vasculature must rapidly regress to enable the next cycle of ovarian activity. This review describes a number of the key endogenous stimulatory and inhibitory factors, which act in a delicate balance to regulate luteal angiogenesis and ultimately luteal function. In vitro luteal angiogenesis cultures have demonstrated critical roles for fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2) in endothelial cell proliferation and sprouting, whilst other factors such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGFA) and platelet derived growth factor (PDGF) were important modulators in the control of luteal angiogenesis. Post-transcriptional regulation by small non-coding micro-RNAs, is also likely to play a central role in the regulation of luteal angiogenesis. Appropriate luteal angiogenesis requires the coordinated activity of numerous factors expressed by several cell types at different times and this review will also describe the role of perivascular pericytes and the importance of vascular maturation and stability. It is hoped that a better understanding of the critical processes underlying the transition from follicle to CL, and subsequent luteal development will benefit the management of luteal function in the future