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Consistent phenological shifts in the making of a biodiversity hotspot: the Cape flora
Background
The best documented survival responses of organisms to past climate change on short (glacial-interglacial) timescales are distributional shifts. Despite ample evidence on such timescales for local adaptations of populations at specific sites, the long-term impacts of such changes on evolutionary significant units in response to past climatic change have been little documented. Here we use phylogenies to reconstruct changes in distribution and flowering ecology of the Cape flora - South Africa's biodiversity hotspot - through a period of past (Neogene and Quaternary) changes in the seasonality of rainfall over a timescale of several million years.
Results
Forty-three distributional and phenological shifts consistent with past climatic change occur across the flora, and a comparable number of clades underwent adaptive changes in their flowering phenology (9 clades; half of the clades investigated) as underwent distributional shifts (12 clades; two thirds of the clades investigated). Of extant Cape angiosperm species, 14-41% have been contributed by lineages that show distributional shifts consistent with past climate change, yet a similar proportion (14-55%) arose from lineages that shifted flowering phenology.
Conclusions
Adaptive changes in ecology at the scale we uncover in the Cape and consistent with past climatic change have not been documented for other floras. Shifts in climate tolerance appear to have been more important in this flora than is currently appreciated, and lineages that underwent such shifts went on to contribute a high proportion of the flora's extant species diversity. That shifts in phenology, on an evolutionary timescale and on such a scale, have not yet been detected for other floras is likely a result of the method used; shifts in flowering phenology cannot be detected in the fossil record
Chronotropic incompetence and a higher frequency of myocardial ischemia in exercise echocardiography
Background
Exercise echocardiography (EE) is an established method to diagnose coronary artery disease (CAD). Chronotropic incompetence (CI) during the EE may be a marker of myocardial ischemia. The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the additive value of CI during EE in CAD diagnosis.
Methods
Between 2000 and 2006, 4042 patients (1900 men with a mean age of 56 ± 11 years) were evaluated by EE. Based on the heart rate (HR) reached during the exercise test, the subjects were divided into two groups: G1 group – 490 patients who failed to achieve 85% of the maximal age-predicted HR, and G2 group – 3552 patients who were able to achieve 85% of the maximal age-predicted HR.
Clinical characteristics, left ventricular wall motion abnormalities – wall motion score index (WMSI) – and coronary angiography (CA) were the parameters compared between the two groups.
Results
The left ventricular wall motion abnormalities were more frequent in G1 group than in G2 group (54% versus 26%; P < 0.00001). WMSI was higher in G1 group than in G2 group, both at rest (1.06 ± 0.17 versus 1.02 ± 0.09; P < 0.0001) and after exercise (1.12 ± 0.23 versus 1.04 ± 0.21; P < 0.0001).
In G1 group, 82% of the patients with positive EE for myocardial ischemia presented obstructive coronary, compared to 71% (P = 0.03) in G2 group.
Conclusion
CI is associated with a higher frequency of myocardial ischemia during EE, reinforcing the concept that CI is a marker of the severity of myocardial ischemia
The Evolutionary Origin of Man Can Be Traced in the Layers of Defunct Ancestral Alpha Satellites Flanking the Active Centromeres of Human Chromosomes
Alpha satellite domains that currently function as centromeres of human chromosomes are flanked by layers of older alpha satellite, thought to contain dead centromeres of primate progenitors, which lost their function and the ability to homogenize satellite repeats, upon appearance of a new centromere. Using cladistic analysis of alpha satellite monomers, we elucidated complete layer patterns on chromosomes 8, 17, and X and related them to each other and to primate alpha satellites. We show that discrete and chronologically ordered alpha satellite layers are partially symmetrical around an active centromere and their succession is partially shared in non-homologous chromosomes. The layer structure forms a visual representation of the human evolutionary lineage with layers corresponding to ancestors of living primates and to entirely fossil taxa. Surprisingly, phylogenetic comparisons suggest that alpha satellite arrays went through periods of unusual hypermutability after they became “dead” centromeres. The layer structure supports a model of centromere evolution where new variants of a satellite repeat expanded periodically in the genome by rounds of inter-chromosomal transfer/amplification. Each wave of expansion covered all or many chromosomes and corresponded to a new primate taxon. Complete elucidation of the alpha satellite phylogenetic record would give a unique opportunity to number and locate the positions of major extinct taxa in relation to human ancestors shared with extant primates. If applicable to other satellites in non-primate taxa, analysis of centromeric layers could become an invaluable tool for phylogenetic studies
Testing the Water–Energy Theory on American Palms (Arecaceae) Using Geographically Weighted Regression
Water and energy have emerged as the best contemporary environmental correlates of broad-scale species richness patterns. A corollary hypothesis of water–energy dynamics theory is that the influence of water decreases and the influence of energy increases with absolute latitude. We report the first use of geographically weighted regression for testing this hypothesis on a continuous species richness gradient that is entirely located within the tropics and subtropics. The dataset was divided into northern and southern hemispheric portions to test whether predictor shifts are more pronounced in the less oceanic northern hemisphere. American palms (Arecaceae, n = 547 spp.), whose species richness and distributions are known to respond strongly to water and energy, were used as a model group. The ability of water and energy to explain palm species richness was quantified locally at different spatial scales and regressed on latitude. Clear latitudinal trends in agreement with water–energy dynamics theory were found, but the results did not differ qualitatively between hemispheres. Strong inherent spatial autocorrelation in local modeling results and collinearity of water and energy variables were identified as important methodological challenges. We overcame these problems by using simultaneous autoregressive models and variation partitioning. Our results show that the ability of water and energy to explain species richness changes not only across large climatic gradients spanning tropical to temperate or arctic zones but also within megathermal climates, at least for strictly tropical taxa such as palms. This finding suggests that the predictor shifts are related to gradual latitudinal changes in ambient energy (related to solar flux input) rather than to abrupt transitions at specific latitudes, such as the occurrence of frost
Climate Change Hastens the Conservation Urgency of an Endangered Ungulate
Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change
Development and Validation of an Automated High-Throughput System for Zebrafish In Vivo Screenings
The zebrafish is a vertebrate model compatible with the paradigms of drug discovery. The small size and transparency of zebrafish embryos make them amenable for the automation necessary in high-throughput screenings. We have developed an automated high-throughput platform for in vivo chemical screenings on zebrafish embryos that includes automated methods for embryo dispensation, compound delivery, incubation, imaging and analysis of the results. At present, two different assays to detect cardiotoxic compounds and angiogenesis inhibitors can be automatically run in the platform, showing the versatility of the system. A validation of these two assays with known positive and negative compounds, as well as a screening for the detection of unknown anti-angiogenic compounds, have been successfully carried out in the system developed. We present a totally automated platform that allows for high-throughput screenings in a vertebrate organism
The Role of Human Movement in the Transmission of Vector-Borne Pathogens
Vector-borne diseases constitute a largely neglected and enormous burden on public health in many resource-challenged environments, demanding efficient control strategies that could be developed through improved understanding of pathogen transmission. Human movement—which determines exposure to vectors—is a key behavioral component of vector-borne disease epidemiology that is poorly understood. We develop a conceptual framework to organize past studies by the scale of movement and then examine movements at fine-scale—i.e., people going through their regular, daily routine—that determine exposure to insect vectors for their role in the dynamics of pathogen transmission. We develop a model to quantify risk of vector contact across locations people visit, with emphasis on mosquito-borne dengue virus in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. An example scenario illustrates how movement generates variation in exposure risk across individuals, how transmission rates within sites can be increased, and that risk within sites is not solely determined by vector density, as is commonly assumed. Our analysis illustrates the importance of human movement for pathogen transmission, yet little is known—especially for populations most at risk to vector-borne diseases (e.g., dengue, leishmaniasis, etc.). We outline several important considerations for designing epidemiological studies to encourage investigation of individual human movement, based on experience studying dengue
Systematic Conservation Planning in the Face of Climate Change: Bet-Hedging on the Columbia Plateau
Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts
First description of a fossil chamaeleonid from Greece and its relevance for the European biogeographic history of the group
The fossil record of Chamaeleonidae is very scarce and any new specimen is therefore considered important for our understanding of the evolutionary and biogeographic history of the group. New specimens from the early Miocene of Aliveri (Evia Island), Greece constitute the only fossils of these lizards from southeastern Europe. Skull roofing material is tentatively attributed to the Czech species Chamaeleo cf. andrusovi, revealing a range extension for this taxon, whereas tooth-bearing elements are described as indeterminate chamaeleonids. The Aliveri fossils rank well among the oldest known reptiles from Greece, provide evidence for the dispersal routes of chameleons out of Africa towards the European continent and, additionally, imply strong affinities with coeval chamaeleonids from Central Europe
Species' geographic distributions through time: Playing catchup with changing climates
This is the author's accepted manuscript.Species’ ranges are often treated as a rather fixed characteristic, rather than a fluid, ever-changing manifestation of their ecological requirements and dispersal abilities. Paleontologists generally have had a more flexible point of view on this issue than neontologists, but each perspective can improve by appreciating the other. Here, we provide an overview of paleontological and neontological perspectives on species’ geographic distributions, focusing on what can be learned about historical variations in distributions. The cross-disciplinary view, we hope, offers some novel perspectives on species-level biogeography
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